Lockdown - has it totally failed?

[Mick Dempsey]

1 minute ago, Gimlet said:

Well it has worked, insofar that it's original purpose was to flatten the peak and delay the spread of the outbreak so that the health system wouldn't be overwhelmed. It was never about "beating the virus" because you can't. 

I imagine it'll come back this winter and another 40 or 50,000 will die, maybe a good deal more. If there's a flu outbreak at the same time it could be double that. Not a lot you can do about it and locking ourselves indoors forever isn't an option.

We've got used to the the idea that you're born, you live and if you don't get unlucky and die of a "proper" fatal disease like cancer, all other ailments can be medicated away and you eventually die of old age and that's the natural course of life. In fact it isn't natural at all. We've just had a honeymoon period in the developed world where we've grown accustomed to holding nature in abeyance and having it easy.

 

As far as I can see this virus is a consequence of human over-population. If it did jump species and wasn't released from a laboratory whether by incompetence or malice it is human overcrowding that has led to the insanitary practices that made that jump possible. And it is over-population and global travel in a shrinking world that facilitated its spread and turned it into a pandemic. 

Covid19 will probably look relatively innocuous compared with other plagues that are waiting down the line.

It's always the same: when a species is no longer subject to natural growth constraints it will continue to over-populate until either disease or starvation caused by the depletion of resources brings about a cataclysmic collapse. That's how it works. 

Well we know already that we're depleting resources, we just haven't yet reached the point of collective understanding where we can accept that environmental degradation, "climate change" or whatever label next comes into fashion, is not a political or an economic problem that can be fixed with taxes, fashionable politics and anti-capitalist protest but an anthropological one. 

Agree with a good deal of this, best post on the subject I’ve seen.

[skyhuck]

5 minutes ago, Gimlet said:

 

I imagine it'll come back this winter and another 40 or 50,000 will die, maybe a good deal more. If there's a flu outbreak at the same time it could be double that. Not a lot you can do about it and locking ourselves indoors forever isn't an option.

 

"Come back" from where? it's not gone anywhere.

[eggsarascal]

11 minutes ago, trigger_andy said:

If no one knows how to deal with this virus what do you suggest the government do? Considering they are acting on advice from the UK's senior scientists. I genuinely think people are intentionally pushing back against the governments guidelines for political reasons. Hence why its the Hard Left out doing all the protesting in the UK. Funny how Labour supporters are not discussing that much on here.  

And you believe that, and it's why I'm staying away from other people just now. The hard left are just as abhorrent as the far right.

[trigger_andy]

2 minutes ago, eggsarascal said:

And you believe that, and it's why I'm staying away from other people just now. The hard left are just as abhorrent as the far right.

Im not saying the only people who are resisting doing as they're told are political activists, but since close to 50% of people did not vote for the Tories, and a vast majority vehemently hate them I can quite easily believe they would intentionally make following and understanding what they Tories tell them to do a political play. 

 

 

[Mark J]

2 hours ago, trigger_andy said:

I am a I am not

FREE MAN A NUMBER

Gotta love the Left.  

 

In the interests of balance, the illeterate wanker with the sign was Jeff Wyatt, he was once deputy leader of the For Britain Movement. Not exactly a bastion of left leaning individuals.

 

[trigger_andy]

Just now, Mark J said:

In the interests of balance, the illeterate wanker with the sign was Jeff Wyatt, he was once deputy leader of the For Britain Movement. Not exactly a bastion of left leaning individuals.

 

Ahhhh, he was trying to blend in with the Left Hate Mob! Clever. 

[Squaredy]

1 hour ago, Gimlet said:

Well it has worked, insofar that it's original purpose was to flatten the peak and delay the spread of the outbreak so that the health system wouldn't be overwhelmed. It was never about "beating the virus" because you can't. 

I imagine it'll come back this winter and another 40 or 50,000 will die, maybe a good deal more. If there's a flu outbreak at the same time it could be double that. Not a lot you can do about it and locking ourselves indoors forever isn't an option.

We've got used to the the idea that you're born, you live and if you don't get unlucky and die from a "proper" fatal disease like cancer, all other ailments can be medicated away and you eventually die of old age and that's the natural course of events. In fact it isn't natural at all. We've just had a honeymoon period in the developed world where we've held nature in abeyance and got used to having it easy.

 

As far as I can see this virus is a consequence of human over-population. If it did jump species and wasn't released from a laboratory whether by incompetence or malice it was human overcrowding causing the insanitary conditions and practices that made the jump possible. And it is over-population and global travel in a shrinking world that facilitated its spread and turned it into a pandemic. 

Covid19 will probably look relatively innocuous compared with other plagues that are waiting down the line.

It's always the same: when a species is no longer subject to natural growth constraints it will continue to over-populate until either disease or starvation caused by the depletion of resources brings about a cataclysmic collapse. That's how it works. 

Well we know already that we're depleting resources, we just haven't yet reached the point of collective understanding where we can accept that environmental degradation, "climate change" or whatever label next comes into fashion, is not a political or an economic problem that can be fixed with taxes, fashionable politics and anti-capitalist protest, it's an anthropological one. 

I agree with almost all of what you say.  In your first line however you say UK lockdown has worked as it has flattened the curve so stopping our NHS being overwhelmed.  My point in this thread is that we have a much higher death rate than Sweden who had and still have no lockdown.  So did the lockdown which has cost vast amounts of anguish and possibly millions of jobs stop the NHS from being overwhelmed?  Or has it made no real difference? 

 

Sweden are managing far better than us with just recommendations not sanctions (apart from banning gatherings over 50).

[trigger_andy]

12 minutes ago, Squaredy said:

My point in this thread is that we have a much higher death rate than Sweden who had and still have no lockdown.

But Sweden has a vastly different population dispersal. You'd be better off looking at a comparison with a city in the UK.

 

So Stockholms population is just under 1 million people and they have had just under 10,000 cases of C-19. With the whole country having 3679 deaths would it be unrealistic to say that Stockholm having 1/3rd of the C-19 cases they'd have 1/3rd of the C-19 deaths? That would pout the death rate in Stockholm at 0.2% of its population. 

 

Birmingham is a city with a comparable city size of 1.1 million. But they have had double the UK average with 624 deaths. Thats 0.05% of the Birmingham population.

 

Take London, a Ball Hair under 9 million. Where London to have the death percentage of Stockholm it would be at 18,000 deaths. We've only had 35,000 in the whole of the UK. London has only has 4700 deaths due to C-19.

 

So the reality is here in the UK we'd see vastly more deaths  to C-19 if we followed the Swedish Model. At least initially, we're only at the start of this shit-show so who knows where we'll actully end up? And as you mentioned before there is going to be unrelated cases that wont be officially attributed to C-19 but in reality should be.

 

Im still in the Herd Immunity Camp. 

[Rich Rule]

Comparing the UK to Sweden is a bit pointless in reality.

 

As pointed out in the above posts.  Why not compare it to it’s neighbours Norway, Finland and Denmark.  Similar population dispersal, similar size of country and populations size.  
 

Sweden’s policy isn't looking too clever now is it?

 

Did anyone see the Downing Street briefing on the 11th May?

 

Pretty much admitting they got their estimates wrong as to the potential of the virus.

For some reason I cannot post the link.

 

 Edit:  I can now.

[Wonky]

2 hours ago, Stubby said:

It was a poorly considered attempt at mirth , referring to the amusing little vid of Boris that was about recently . Sorry and all that . ?

Did you mean thiss... I thought this was very clear.  Are you following ???