Covid-19

[openspaceman]

1 hour ago, Richard 1234 said:

Bloody hell! Where are these charts on the bbc please?

would be good to see outlook for my dad!

thanks

The chart shows the current chance of dying is a bit over  1% at 70 but statistics from China show that the chances of dying at 70 if you get covid is 8% however the chances increase 1.5 times if you are male. UK predictions based on those dying in hospital  are much better but hospitals are becoming inundated.

[Matthew Storrs]

4 hours ago, difflock said:

However, how often are we, or "they" going to test HNS nd other staff directly involved, every day, before they start their work, since, unless they, the staff, are going to be kept in sterile accomodation, they stand a chance of catching it between shifts.

Imho, the whole lockdown thing is unworkable, and we may have to/might have been better to have accepted that the virus will run its course.

And less hysteria about deaths, shit happens.

With revised protocols for NHS staff and how often they change masks/protective clothing.

From someone with a daughter working directly with Covid paitents, an 87 year old mother, and a 55 year old wife who has quietly assessed that she would not qualify to be put on a ventilitor, due to her underlying health issues.

Which is to say I got skin in the game.

Marcus

'They are leading us to catastrophe': Sweden's coronavirus stoicism begins to jar | World news | The Guardian

WWW.GOOGLE.CO.UK

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There’s a surreal calm in the last country in Europe to hold out against lockdown. But...

I do wonder about the full on effects of full lock down. Ie short terms effects (Coronavirus deaths) vs long term (shitstorm of economic and widespread hardship). It will be interesting to look back at Sweden’s approach in say 4 months and then again in 2 years to see what the best course of action might have been. 

[TIMON]

'They are leading us to catastrophe': Sweden's coronavirus stoicism begins to jar | World news | The Guardian

WWW.GOOGLE.CO.UK

---

There’s a surreal calm in the last country in Europe to hold out against lockdown. But...
I do wonder about the full on effects of full lock down. Ie short terms effects (Coronavirus deaths) vs long term (shitstorm of economic and widespread hardship). It will be interesting to look back at Sweden’s approach in say 4 months and then again in 2 years to see what the best course of action might have been. 

I think the UK government was taking a similar approach but ‘blinked’ rather than stick with it.
Probably when they realised the implications and impact on the front line hospitals, given how badly the NHS had been underfunded (apart from salaries for PHE execs) and mismanaged.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the Scandinavian health services are in much better shape than in the UK.

[Big J]

Just passed a million cases worldwide and just over 51k dead. 

 

Grim figures.

 

I feel that the USA is going to have the hardest time in the developed world, but I don't even want to think about the consequences of widespread infection in somewhere like India.

[Stubby]

11 hours ago, Big J said:

Just passed a million cases worldwide and just over 51k dead. 

 

Grim figures.

 

I feel that the USA is going to have the hardest time in the developed world, but I don't even want to think about the consequences of widespread infection in somewhere like India.

 

Edited April 3, 2020 by Stubby

[Big J]

16 minutes ago, Stubby said:

My wife works for the NHS in a GP surgery .  A bloke yesterday was kicking off in the Q to get his prescription . He was of the opinion that it  had been " blown out of all proportion "   He lives in Bosham , a small village in West Sussex / Hampshire  that is predominately yellow wellies , pink fleeces and blue body warmers .  Yacht people .  What a 22  carat knob jockey . My wife asked him why he thought they were conversing though a window and at least 2 M apart . He just stood there and looked like the moron he is . Hope he gets it . Wanker .  

It's the inconsistent way that it affects people that's the issue. Very contagious and rather serious for anyone elderly or with comorbidities. 

 

I'm staggered that people are still acting like total arses towards NHS staff. Donuts.

[Guest Gimlet]

Spoke to my brother yesterday (lives near Chipping Norton). His wife is a nurse. She has been posted onto C19 wards so she's now working exclusively with corona patients and the word from the front line is, if you're old or you've got underlying health problems, you're done for.

 

However, the hospital records are not distinguishing between those patients who die of C19 and those who die with it and flu statistics have disappeared off the map so the picture is far from clear.. 

[Peasgood]

Aunt seems to have had it. All the symptoms but not tested.

Self isolating on her own at home and got to the stage where she thought she wasn’t going to make it but is getting better now. She called me today so sounds like she is nearly better.

Over 70, so you are not automatically done for as Charles also showed.

[Stere]

A call to honesty in pandemic modeling - Wesley Pegden - Medium

MEDIUM.COM

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Maria Chikina and Wesley Pegden

 

 

Some more data modelling stuff...

 

About second wave a possibilities when lockdowns are lifted.

 

But surely imo a second wave may be  preventable  if it can be made locally extinct, which is  is now being reported as the case in China.

 

 

They are saying its  only imported cases atm in China  that can be controlled by contact tracing/testing etc so they may not require a continued internal  lockdown for much longer. (And it was only a  % of China that was in full lockdown not the whole country like the UK)

 

That being the case can see global travel being restricted for  at least a year as countries won't want to re -introduce it, from parts of the world were they still have outbreaks.

 

Still  early to say how well it will be dealt with in 3rd world places etc...

 

 

Edited April 2, 2020 by Stere

[Woodworks]

7 hours ago, Stere said:

A call to honesty in pandemic modeling - Wesley Pegden - Medium

MEDIUM.COM

---

Maria Chikina and Wesley Pegden

 

 

Some more data modelling stuff...

 

About second wave a possibilities when lockdowns are lifted.

 

But surely imo a second wave may be  preventable  if it can be made locally extinct, which is  is now being reported as the case in China.

 

 

They are saying its  only imported cases atm in China  that can be controlled by contact tracing/testing etc so they may not require a continued internal  lockdown for much longer. (And it was only a  % of China that was in full lockdown not the whole country like the UK)

 

That being the case can see global travel being restricted for  at least a year as countries won't want to re -introduce it, from parts of the world were they still have outbreaks.

 

Still  early to say how well it will be dealt with in 3rd world places etc...

 

 

Bear in mind what they we call a lockdown and what China did are not comparable. My Nephew is out in China and not in a badly hit area but he basically did not go out for 2 months. They have a nominated shopper who bulk buys for many in one go. Get out on the street and have your temperature taken and you wear a mask at all times when out. Nothing like that here so we wont be able to shut it down in the same way unless we are prepared to go that far.