peckerwoo

"storm after the calm part 2" Ready for tonight & tomoz gents? I would not be surprised if the current system moving in drops pressure rapidly and we have storm force winds affecting areas more south than last weeks damage caused in Scotland! ie: NIre, Mids, N & WWales, N Eng, S Sco. average speeds 50mph already from Atlantic buouys West of Eire and the Low still deepening.

Azores ridge is a concern (has been a major factor encouraging the zonal pattern over the UK/W Europe etc for quite some time aside the brief colder spell for areas Boxing day etc) but clearly a worthy opportunity as another 2013/14 Winter record breaking wet season would not be repeated/matched? NHemisphere 500 chart was playing around with a high latitude "heights" pattern quite some time ago so somethings afoot? but its all so very common for us to endure the "near miss" as it takes many a synoptic to fall into place for a pure Easterly unlike the Winters of old? I`ll say its 50/50 as it stands but need a few more days modelling consistency although we are not an age away from Cold, unlike the last 2 weeks!

Did everyone enjoy the recent high winds and volatile Atlantic? threads suggesting windblown havoc widespread in the North are a very interesting read? But after quite a wait then Winter "could" well be on the verge of returning next week! After yet another deepening Low late tmoz thru Thursday affecting Northern areas yet again, then Pressure is slowly building E of Greenland Iceland Svaalbard etc cutting off any westerly influence and rendering us under cold air but the Heights are flaky at the moment so we need more model consistency and frequent evolution checks but its definately "game on" although if heights are weaker than currently suggested then the whole projection breaks down as shortwaves could easily scupper and breach any "blocking" but if I was down SE of the UK i`d be quite weary of snowfall next week as well as everywhere else feeling much colder with widespread overnight heavy frost & Ice. more as it becomes available. (sorry for lack of updates and replies etc)

Heads up for anyone not knowing but NAS are relocating premises soon so maybe susceptible to difficulties regs supply orders etc? Personally Ive never faulted 'em as they price match everything

Your in for an interesting week! Not feeling as cold today but tomorrow you will be back into raw cold wind (modified polar maritime air) with wintry precipitation eventually down to lower levels in Sco, but eyes out late tues/early weds for a deepening depression bringing gale force to storm winds as a low intensifies as it tracks east plotted south of Iceland then through Faroe isles

I come n go like a twister round here and apols for delays (busy with none-work?) So something of a change as the Atlantic beckons but the cold damp grey calm is on its way out as a "Zonal" unsettled pattern moves our way helped by a flatter moderate jet stream between 50-60 degrees latitude navigating low pressures eastwards between Iceland & the Shetlands as a mid Atlantic Ridge (High pressure) remains fairly static. Developing lows out of the Labrador current/SW Greenland/Newfoundland etc area will bring wet n windy conditions clearing to showers n clearer periods with modified polar maritime air so some of you folk in NIre/Sco and high ground NEng will see wintry conditions in the coming days, briefly Friday for the far north but feeling much colder in the strong winds for the whole of the UK Sunday onwards, Talk of a deep low developing to sweep through next Wednesday is a possibility but not yet certain, although gales quite likely the more North of the country you are next week. But little to no signs of prolonged Snow & Ice in the immediate timeframe (next 8 to 12/14 days) but eyes out for those in the North for those colder periods between systems next week where sleet & snow is possible but not amounting to widespread depths only on the mountains etc. Temps will cycle between mild above avg to slightly below avg between the troughs and ridges but I enjoy the clean fresh atlantic air over the muck anyday

Hello all In the general interest, no matter how minimal, then here starts a dedicated thread for all to input their views on the upcoming winter, rolling conditions, alerts and just about any waffle one cares to add (but the disclaimer is a slightly more formal approach as to not interupt mendi's "whats the weather" etc thread) Predictive charts are becoming more interesting in recent days as to the chances of what lays ahead but The recent frigid conditions in the NE of the US and speculation of us experiencing anything similar here are purely untrue and utterly invalid so i dont wish to waste time on it but to summarise then its a safe bet to say conditions are going to turn settled after a very mild plunge spreads north through friday & saturday Before a weak atlantic front passes SE across UK Mon PM Tues AM, so generally drier but grey days for next week with temps on the avg side looks a steady call. One point of note is a very stubborn anti-cyclone system Over W Russia that "could" lead into a noteable cold pattern affecting the UK but at the moment other factors are holding it back and orienting its flow away from us but with the continent cooling steadily as a whole and a meandering jet stream (amongst many other polar vortex, el nino, sudden stratospheric warming etc etc teleconnections) then it cant be discarded just yet for a seasonal blast of Ice & snow etc? More later but try to enjoy the glum damp cool grey muck today?

Pattern slowly evolving into possibilities increasing day by day into getting just what you want TCD! (hugely different phase from last years late autumn/early winter but we are still a ways from a decent cold snow/ice event but its trying)

I know it was an exceptionally mild winter last season as i recorded only 1 single air frost! and my runner beans survived being out in open ground as the roots lived on and i had a bumper harvest this year! (Maybe an increasing el-nino event will chuck a spanner in the works this winter and disrupt something called the "polar vortex" which when displaced, via a stronger el-nino event, "CAN" bring about entrenched northern blocking with a shift to an east to west pattern along our UK latitude of continental and/or arctic air for prolonged periods but in all honesty i'm contemplating southerly tracking jet streams running Atlantic fronts up against stubborn high pressure to our north east which ,as like the 70's & 80's, allows heavy drifting snowfalls favoring the more east & north areas of the UK?)

I'm honoured gents & on it (after whats been a bad year traffic incidents, insurance shenanigans and bereavments) & funnily enough i was comparing setups a couple of weeks ago with early Nov to Dec 2010 when we had rare snow/ice/cold event but couldnt see any clear similarities, as is much the case now other than an Atlantic influence returning short term (recent N American arctic storms tracking east on the jet stream to bring wet n windy weather to NW Europe) but until i run some research then the official stance for the upcoming winter is all i can muster of "slightly below temps & slightly below rain/snowfall"?, short to mid term updates to follow chums but until the nearby continent cools significantly (N & W europe anonymously mild) then no widespread snow is imminent other than possibilities of brief northerly incursions affecting Sco NIre N Eng and coastal areas. maybe check the odds though of a white xmas in Glasgow or Edinburgh but 5 weeks away is purely and utterly imposs to predict?

2nd the above posts: heard from more than one supplier (reg waste sites) that Stobarts are extremely stingy paying pittance p/t!

Je apprends le franÇais

Iv'e been cross referencing charts back in late Oct/early Nov 2010 prior to the unusual cold and widespread sub-10 temps etc from late Nov to xmas etc but no correlation as yet with mild intermittent wet then drier daily periods of quick moving troughs then brief ridges for the next 10-14 days generally speaking but beyond that then lets see , all eyes on svaalbard for me

Any means to incorporate a pocket/fastener etc for a 500ml gym plastic water bottle? I was gaggin this summer!

wow ^ mega size pic! Hero3 way to go, new 4 is for ultra HD (4k) and most kit scales it anyway until tech develops, Great for biking as well as rec but I`m saving up for one so missus peck has a 30fps recorded view of her journey to work and back seeing as its bandit country on the roads these days

St Austell - Not my part of the UK nor do I know the chap but sharing on facebook to try catch the sub-human scum: https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10203697576232484&set=a.1619223773044.81281.1609894231&type=1&fref=nf

yup, recommend Jon too, S17 area, certifies whilst you wait if your kits in order too

Pop will eat itself fan here too! The working man's class of species Burns on the go like usain bolt!

Delay over? highly likely at last! Tues/Weds will see a shortwave Low spin off a separate Low just off W Sco Isles and deepen moving SE (opposed to a more NE path as we have become all too accustomed) where this will help pull in those easterlies via the High pressure to our North & East which has been trying for a good few weeks now but held back by too much energy and northerly jet stream. But some very lively weather over the weekend as the 1st Low deepens and grinds to a halt very close by giving very unsettled conditions. By the end of the weekend we will have more accurate data regarding the change & potential snowfall amounts/Ice/Winds etc etc

No one mentioned Town & Country stoves of Pickering NYorks yet then? Rosedale 7.5 (multi-fuel, Defra, 316 lined, air vent, dry logs only) warms our entire house as the brick built chimney is central so heats all downstairs (open plan) and 2 bedrooms upstairs as the entire stack warms and radiates log into the early hours. Heck knows how hot it would get with coal? Shear quality and chuffed to bits with it, unless its only me humpin logs from base to home

It was postponed indefinitely chaps, see initial thread from last week Here Simply too much energy flowing west to east with the much heralded Polar Vortex steadfast in and around NE Canada/Greenland spewing endless low pressure centres & troughs across the Atlantic to us even though high pressure to our East is trying in vain to encroach westwards over W Europe & the UK. Cooler interludes coming up with polar maritime feeds but these will be shortlived with night-time frosts and little in the way of snow and ice in all reality? Watching conditions becoming more favorable however come the last week of Jan and into Feb but meantime Winters still not playing ball.

yeah, you won`t go wrong on NW for info/link n stuff although I can honestly say theirs a lot of wannabbes and its no where near as genuine nor down to earth with good honest folk as AT here? Iv`e been on NW 10 yrs tho but still keep "myself to meself" that said theirs a great learning section but you need to put some serious time in, which I`m sure you`ll agree is in short supply unless your in shovel/hozzy or remote island

Thnx cor I think thats "gibbys" site who`s a very good contributor to the NW forums!

We need a title amendment mr B! Governing factors have determined a complete reversal and put back the projected cold for the time being so this is hereby "suspended until further notice" ie: no widespread snow despite initial chances folks! The joys of the british isles climate?