peckerwoo

It`s a pleasure Geoff but it`s also stressful falling victim to a set of model runs which appear very plausible and sucker you in for them to do a complete turnaround the next day or 2 when youve gone out on a limb and cried wolf? LOL Heaven knows what the pro`s Met office & BBC wallers etc go through but I`m sure their pay packets always leave `em "warm n settled"

etc etcNo woodwrx, as you say: interpretting all the info that is out their is the key but its all down to understanding the complexity! which baffles me at times I must admit?, I really would not know where to begin when it comes to organising and suggesting which of my "favorites" (web sites) would help a standard viewer as I`m generally untidy lol. The obvious "downgrade" or lessening the initial intensity of the Cold has occured overnight last night and on today`s runs? The main scuppering looks to be that a stronger jet stream and more northerly track forces Atlantic Lows nearer `tord us therefore holding back the Scandinavian High pressure forcing and sort of "Squashing back" the cold continental air where it stops its westerly advance affecting mainland UK? The latest run is just beginning to trickle out now so I`ll update again tonight but given the modest turnaround then the pendulums swung back into the "No Snow" zone in laymens for now. We simply cant predict out beyond 120hrs with 100% but we can spot a good chance and this was/is/will be again or what the hell ever in time soon If anything Scotland NIre and N Eng will feel a lot cooler later tomoz and thru Saturday but its all about the energy in the Atlantic against the Cold continental air system to our east. In all honesty I now doubt anything substantial given a number of factors namely Arctic Oscillation going +, Nrth Atl Osc going +, amplified Jet with no end of N American trough axis`s spurring on the Jet & also a ridging Azores High pressure plotted (once the Atlantic energy finally slows next weekend 17th) which further hinders any Easterly air motion for Western Europe UK etc. Mentioned earlier about Rich`s sea survival course in Pompey and although still far out it could be that we may have calm mild conditions due to the above mentioned Azores High ridge influencing us? anywayz,,,,Back to the madness Peck

BBC weather presenter Paul Hudson has done a blog summary : here So lots of chops and changes over the next few days but by far the most favorable shot of a Winter spell this season so far! I`ll update tomorrow to give today`s runs a chance of consolidating further but the mean averages are roughly 8 degs C down in the reliable time period so it`s highly likely that much colder temps are on the cards. Long way out that Rich but if anything I would say we would more likely than not be back in a mild Atlantic and generally unsettled period by then? Even longer term I`d go out on a limb and say an early spring but below avg summer in terms of sunshine hrs and temps but dont ask me why

Timeout for a sec: Best thread on AT! (Even though i understand about 5% of it?) Rock on men

Had my mincers on high pressure trying to force its reckoning over northern europe for over a week now, but a relentless flat strong jet stream has kept it in check, However, "*ALERT* Ice & low temps warning" ooo, how exciting Large majority of models now agreeing on an establishing easterly drift over NW europe along with -5 to -10+ Degree C 850 level isotherms (fluctuating around 0 degrees daytime dependant on location/conditons etc) courtesy of the jet weakening and headed way south over the Med (always a good sign). Weak lows already shifting south bringing rain to more southern areas tomoz, the last of which will pass thru Sthrn uk over the weekend into France where the focussed high pressure over Scandinavia will then begin to ridge SWestwards blocking off any atlantic air incursions with the turnaround period late monday into tuesday next week at a "guesstimate". This is NOT a nov 2010 in terms of length and severity & as the much talkd about "polar vortex" looks like coming back near us soon i dont expect the cold plunge to last long but east cold always outlives those poor northern/arctics with "topplers" written all over them from their onset. More later, gotta dash chaps/chapeesas

Trough currently moving eastwards Stretching North from Southampton, Oxford, Leicester & York with a couple of hrs of rain and potential sharp squally bursts with the odd wet snowflake over higher regions. Eyes on Mondays Atlantic depression running closeby with high winds forecast, one to watch! 50/50 over a white xmas for Glasgow (worth a flutter @2/1 with a few bookies but hurry?) with odds lengthening for more southerly lying cities, uncertain still on how much of a polar maritime influence the air has by the 25th or wether it will be a (mild) flat jet stream off the Gulf/US eastern seaboard etc?

Something I will never forget for sure (I was 12 at the time and visited my aunt & uncle the following summer years in Helston) and every time I take a seat and view out across mounts bay I think on and I also tell the story to young and old alike who didn`t know what happened that night and every time I tell it I still get that eery feeling and my goosepimples rise? maybe that American exchange pilot out of Culdrose does too? Strangely enough I also talk of the 2 bobbies swept off Cliff road/Harbour road in Porthleven to their deaths the year (1980?) before! ,,and it`s time I bought some RNLI merchandise again too Rich2482

In remembrance to the bravery of the crew of the RNLI lifeboat "Soloman Browne", perished with all lives lost 22 years ago today 19th Dec 1981 off the south cornish coast in storm force seas, "service not self" - heroes are never forgotten!

High winds are all over bar the shouting with at least 7-10 days of benign relatively dry cloudy milder south westerlies coming up from saturday onwards as a "euro-high" ridge settles and builds to our SE, lots of good days for tree work prior to crimbo fellas

light strong and comfy, thumbs up from me for a much less price over bash & bucks etc.

So they have good wear and flexibility? The pfanner stretch-airs were great but looking really flea-bitten after 2 years of heavy climbing use? ,and the zipper went after a few week so looking for an alternative to try.

"If" this is the official AT trouser review cum thingy thread then,,? Stockist near me has SIP Innovation 2 black/orange type C`s for £174 INC VAT! (214 @ jonesies) but I`ve no input on SIP gear? anyone? peck

Fret yee not fellow Arbarians! FINALLY the Azores ridge is strengthening and beginning to expand NEwards and settle over the UK for drier settled and warmer weather The evolution is not certain in terms of any scattered thundery outbreaks but after today, for eastern parts, and NW areas tomorrow then we are favoring at least 7-10 days of higher pressure (1020-1028mb) compared to the low 990's and 980 measures weve seen recently. no real heatwave but get set to "feel the sun" folks

Brief tastes of spring must have been enjoyed by a lot of us over the weekend? But an annoying week to get through with increasing easterly winds again together with rain the more south you are and STILL wintry falls over the highest northerly areas. However, the Concensus is coming together where a static Euro-High (settled anticyclone/high pressure air over western mainland Europe) is projected to form early-mid week beginning Mon 15th April as the Jet stream tracks Low pressures northwards up away from N/Ire W Sco sending us warm Southerly winds with temps possibly breaking the sweltering (lol) 70deg F heights for the South to low mid 60`s elsewhere so dont hold me to it but the last 3rd of April could be well be a good `un with Winter 12/13 cast into the ether I`ll finish with my disclaimer that although confidence in settled warm conditions the more south and east you are from next week is good!, the Atlantic Lows may encroach further into NW Eng/Sco/N Ire giving those areas rain bands? all dependent on the strength of the Zonal Low pressures, the Euro High and which one yields most over the UK? Lest we see a diminishing frost threat a certainty

Your topic titles spot on but your day will come & so will the low-lifes who are responsible. Meantime soldier on as it`s happened & theirs nowt you can do about it now When I hear of sub-human slime like this (and just seeing that "Philpott" child murdering beast on TV news) it makes me want to feel no part of human society at times? (If theirs always going to be more good folk than bad why don`t we see it?)

Plotting until Saturday afore the winds ease down their for you rich, I guess the swell can get pretty high given anything more than a fresh breeze? We are seeing those continued log sales on "thin ice" from next weekend ML? Every model now offering air pressure lowering around Iceland by Sat 8th to fall in line with energy in the Northern arm of the Jet stream relenting its southern track after whats seems like months? of keeping us under the cold continental air "block". The only issue is wether or not a nearby elongated High pressure ridge (stronger azores ridge) presides over us with pleasant settled conditions or Atlantic driven Low pressure rattling North eastwards nearby, or even over NW Britain? I fear the latter as things look now? but small price to pay if you want rid of these bitter below avg temps

No total agreement but another 8-9 days before the noticeable cold air feed is likely replaced by a milder atlantic air flow given the outputs beginning to show signs of consistency as the current solid heights to the North of the UK sink to ridge with the long time missing, albeit weak, Azores high and allow energy to encroach in the Greenland/Iceland/Norwegian corridor thus placing us south of the polar jet front and in less cold but more moist conditions. Cold frosty nights but a predominantly dry week still with those pesky bitter E winds for the south & S east backing more northerly come midweek. So the jet stream may well finally be headed North but aside from increasing solar spring strength i'm highly intrigued by whats forced the Jet stream so far south for so long to give us the record breaking cold March?

Indeed, 300 more or so & you gotta spankin new 390?

Did you bid/win? WoodED? Ebay Husky 385xp £520 final,,,

I`m stringent and demand all work stops as soon as any mammals are nesting in the affected foliage. Gutted the other week when a squirrels nest was mistaken for being un-occupied but 3 young `uns were re-situated un-harmed in the nearby animal sanctuary so all was well again. Nature always comes before pounds shilling and pence Good to see a caring ethic chaps

Various media reports going so far as "3 to 4 inches of rain" in SW areas ML so I`d keep tabs on the rain radar as well as those river levels Valid alignment for the fronts to move in a "conveyer belt" position giving rain off and on for the next 24hrs for SWEng, SWales & much of Eire?

The current frontal band lies South east from Lisburn in NIre across Ellesmere port, Stoke, Tamworth, Northampton, Luton, Dartford, Folkestone moving in a Northerly direction readily falling as snow above 800ft with rain & sleet at lower levels but this looks to be turning more to snow as time goes by? Associated Low is just off SW Eire but appears to be still tracking North meaning the front could make more progress into Scotland early tomorrow before pivoting and returning southwards. Extremely difficult to predict accurate snowfall amounts as the dew point is borderline between rain/sleet & Snow in many areas but higher ground could well see 5-6 inches by rush hour tomorrow?, quite amazing for this time of March!

Lucky for some squire But riggers at the ready cos a couple of inch of heavy rains on the cards for you SWesterners? Associated fronts appear to be Coming in quicker than projected but at a steeper south-east to north-west tilt hence difficulty projecting the northern flanks snowfall boundary which has moved further north to include eng/sco border regions and associated rain instead of snow event for central eng/mids? High Risk of localised flooding for SW areas, the Latest output maps are just coming in slowly now so will update on this event later this evening.

***Moderate to heavy snowfall threat Saturday Mid-Wales (inc. all of Ulster) SE to London/Kent border between rain/Sleet/Snow with easterly gales making it feel amazingly cooooooold for late March*** Sod the log sales, this Winters pi**in me off with its longevity!

Popped into NAS the other week and the shops in turmoil cos theyve made a partition for a new managers office and all the stocks everywhere? i'm gettin some new Imori this week so will get the proper lowdown from Simon in the shop as to exactly when their gettin their zz's in then i'll post an update in here (Hello evrybods btw & "just say NO" to the weather)