peckerwoo

Long time no post HNY to all Down to the "short" nitty gritty: Shortlived cold spell, no siberian fetch of a true easterly due to cyclonic activity over Svaalbard/N Scan, very hard frost and some potential of snowfall as the -10 isotherm wedge of air encroaches from the East thru Saturday but the Atlantic looks odds on fave to return midweek, MTF,,, Peck

Well spotted JB and now looking the likeliest with yet another spanner in the worx! So the topic title is hereby changed to Cold Event Part 2 Downgrade chapter A lol Recall back to the previous instances where I quoted "shortwaves" & the last post where something on the lines of "Omega block joining Scandinavian & Icelandic region High pressure`s" In between this area will be a benign slack area where, if the high pressure is not high enough, very small low pressure areas form known as "Shortwaves", which has thrown just about every model off the recent cold forecast, and as I tried to detail previously "Low" systems anywhere to our North can and do disrupt any East to West air pattern thus bring us under less cold Air? The initial High that is trying to force it`s Cold air over from NW Russia/Scan is in place but does not have enough depth nor flatter shape to extend it`s mass over the UK? But again, I would not warrant a full scale Atlantic incursion over us toward the end of next week so easily as some models are showing? And we will have a few moderately cold days prior to the "Shortwave" allowing a more westerly air pattern come thursday, So a major cold period thwarted yet again but a reload 50/50 opportunity is not looking very far away but we will have to see of an Atlantic incursion for number of days from Thurs onwards? Chances of any snowfall are looking more favorable for North Eastern areas Monday moving more focussed over the SE East Anglia Tuesday and these areas are not going to be on the receiving end of anything mounting to much so sorry for raising any "certainties" in terms of Snow but neither are we basking in anything like Mild air? Winter`s got a few more darts to throw our way over the next 3 month

Well your desires are becoming more and more certain model run after model run! Intense cold, akin to that infamous November in 09 (-10°C in my urban low lying area here between Sheffield/Rotherham, much colder elsewhere), is a Major threat now and the only risk to lessen this True Winter spell is a failure of the Scandinavian area High pressure ridge to link up "omega block" style across the N Atlantic Iceland to Greenland? (Firmly closing the door on the Jet Stream and any Atlantic seaboard mild air should an Omega Block occur) Personally I`m no longer a supporter of extreme cold as my roofs in state of repair and in 09 snowfall accumulated on my western roof side, thawed when the heating came on in the Bay window and froze again in solid chunks of ice expanding under the degraded gutter/tile edge flashing and melted again inside the loft space and ran down inside our bedroom through to the lounge So, My eyes are firmly on the Ridge to our NE from Monday onwards and wether it becomes static and maintains +1040mb reading or meanders back Eastwards and allows any Zonal (Atlantic) influence in? Fundamentals: High Pressure located to our North = Cold, Ice Dry and/or Snow (-AO & -NAO) Low Pressure located our North = Generally Wet Unsettled Mild & Windy (+AO & +NAO) I`m off out with the hounds before an isle of jura gill nitecap

Of course young man, It`s highly likely that next week your going to require many a layer of clothing on due to the Increased cold weather with a Zippo hand warmer snuggled around ones midriff being my weapon of choice oh, and your area down in the far SE can be the coldest area across the UK with an "Easterly" due to very little "warming" courtesy of the minimal sea track/gap?

Last week we had a good chance of a moderate cold,snowy & Icy period to affect the UK Cold Event - General chat but high energy and temperature gradients to our NW brought low pressure systems through the potential block and although it`s stayed cool with recent Wintry outbreaks, specifically but not totally resigned to Scotland, it was always in danger of not materialising? (the aforementioned "block") However, The recent models are in huge favor of a large and organised NW Russian/Scandinavian/Barents Sea High pressure ridge setting up shop from late Mon 10th with more or less everything flowing east to west of a Siberian air mass flavour? The -5 isotherm looks to be well into all but Western areas of Britain come Tuesday PM and with the -10 Iso following closely behind then Weds 12th could well be an Ice Day for many central, Eastern & scottish areas? Again, Snowfall & precipitation forecasts are nigh on impossible to predict this far out but the situation looks very favorable for trough developments to bring frequent and prolonged snow showers to the above mentioned areas but "wet snow & sleet" may be the outcome for low lying coastal areas but it will all be down to how cold the upper troposphere air temps will be and how much the North sea will modify those -5 & -10 Iso`s? Not 100% but confidence is very high (75%) as we stand tonight and this time we are looking to our East not North, which can often be a much more severe and intense direction for Snow & Ice "Big J" ,,,more to follow/update

Hi Bob, I can`t recall specifically? but This link to the yr.no site is a very good rolling satellite cloud animation of our part of the world & updated within an hour of the actual time and can be an ideal tool to monitor precipitation and low level cloud incursions that would otherwise be difficult to see on raintoday and meteosat etc.? The bigger news however is a clear and definite downturn on the potential of the colder pattern, maybe a trained/learning eye can see via the sat sequence above where the previously mentioned "block" has succumbed to the energy squeezing out the high pressure to our NW? Last week the models showed high agreement in placing an elongated ridge from Svaalbard running south all the way to the Azores but I was fearful yet didn`t mention no Warm Air Advection (WAA) west of Greenland nor a benign slack area for Shortwaves to unfold around Iceland? Now I`m not saying the Atlantic is going to bust through full force but it`s now clear the opportunity to tap into any continental or straight polar air mass looks to have gone? Polar maritime flows mixed in with a light trough (low frontal rain band) crossing the UK late Sunday/early Monday will see our temps slightly below avg. with moderate overnight frosts where clear skies occur but theirs a slight chance some higher Northern areas may see some wintry light falls through friday/Sat as a disorganised filling/diverging Low pressure affects us from the North? Drier at least! compared to recent times but Winter`s not here just yet with little "clear" signs of anything truly seasonal but It`s early days,,, (16th to 20th Dec for the "bookie-busting" white xmas flutter )

For those that are Interested regarding the much publicised Winter outbreak next week: I`m not going to draw out a long winded technical post? (Well, I never intend too but I get carried away easily ) Unlike other countries our home grown media never ever explain the "why`s & how`s", this always deflates me as although we are an Island we have very poor educational methods in terms of Meteorology and therefore the majority rarely learn as a whole and often take the ridiculous daily express features to heart or look jaw-dropped at what I believe is the least knowledged weather forecaster EVER in Sky News "forecaster" "Naz"? Apologies for that but to cut to the chase, The essential "Block" required for a decent cold spell is arranging in place currently (following tomorrows under-cutting Low and heavy rain system for the South) and a considerable ridge from Northern Greenland/Svaalbard looks to exist/plotted in an elongated arrangement all the way down to the Azores thus cutting off the Jet Stream & Sub-tropical Jet etc etc. but more accurately any mild air, (solid ensembles for Reykjavik-Iceland Air pressure mean average above 1010mb from Tues 27th nov) Although this is going to open the door for a Northern/Eastern air mass to encroach the UK, Europe has yet to cool down but a Siberian plunge midweek will quickly place N Europe & Scan in the freezer but it wont be until then that we can monitor potential snow events, but a 5° drop in temps are a given. So, I guess I have gone "long-winded" AGAIN??? Fire away any simplification comments/requests but I`ll try to keep this updated as it unfolds,,,,and remain focussed/sane whilst doing so

Heyup TCD The official guidelines are 1 of 3 consisting of: 1. Above normal temps - (predominantly mild wet and windy) 2. Average Temps - (cold snaps mixed with Atlantic Low pressure patterns) 3. Below Average temps - (Drier cold Icy conditions from Arctic and continental airflows with battle grounds drawn between Zonal Atlantic Lows and Scandinavian High pressure systems) And you may have guessed it again?, due to me being around , but Indications are "trending" for,,, no.3 A colder than average Dec12 to Feb13 season? A multitude of How`s and Why`s exist but I`ll try to simplify if & when this comes to fruition "what`s the weather like nr you" etc. thread

Good evening AT folk Just a quickie but their is now majority model agreement on sum form of Northern Blocking (a sure sign of cold UK weather for non-techy types) early to mid December but an ever so slight average trend of downward temps looks to start within a week? Now I`m not repeating the November of 09 here but a definite opening for much colder conditions courtesy of a High pressure ridge somewhere from Southern Greenland across Iceland & "GIN" corridor to Scandinavia somewhere with the Polar Frontal Jet resident for the UK and the Sub-Tropical Jet off on his hols to 35-45 degree latitudes. More on this as and when seen fit

It`s clear to see that during Saturday the Polar Air will start to be mixed out with North Atlantic modified air so temps will be around average or ever so slightly below for most of the UK by Sunday with a short lived 24hr cold blast. On a side note: the ridge influence around Sthern Greenland will move more West over Labrador/Newfoundland area so developing Low`s in the Icelandic/GIN corridor will in turn be more west so subsequent polar air plunges will be well West of the UK allowing more avg. domestic temps here in modified westerly airstream. For next week Meandering Low pressure areas will influence throughout with occasional spells of rain off and on in the North with more showery outbreaks for those further South between drier periods. Unsettled in a nutshell with gusty winds Sunday as the front clears but keeping an eye on a potentially strong Low system coming down between N Sco & Iceland late Tuesday into Weds?

We have been set on fitting a Handol 51L for years now (still changing the fireplace/inglenook) after being more impressed over it`s build quality and heat output/efficiency over any other model so I`d initially look at Contura stoves with high praise being 1 & the same co. now as you state.

I read snippets on this last year and my own opinion is that we don`t adversely affect the Ionosphere with ultra high-frequency radio waves? but still, It`s a great debate for nay-sayers and conspiracy theorists! I don`t however rule out some unknown form of nullifying developing Hurricanes/Typhoons/Cyclone? merely due to the costs & loss of lives they can inflict? Very Interesting though I must agree

I`ts that time of year again folks where this lurker leaves his Gulf of mexico & Caribbean Hurricane interest`s and hangs out with the Arbchat kindred So regarding this cold snap, then, as previous posts, the temps will plummet through Friday as a cold front/trough moves south courtesy of the High pressure system currently influencing us retrograding NWwards over S Greenland/Iceland to put us under Drier (misty mur by-byes) but much colder airflow with widespread daytime maximums not rising above 40°F in northern regions and only mid-high 40`s in the South with widespread air frosts away from coastal fringes thru Friday night. A new low pressure will form out of the fairly strong temperature gradient due West of Iceland on Saturday, which will cut off the cold arctic air over us as it tracks SEwards across the faroe`s & Shetland increasing temps for the UK with little chance of a frost Saturday night. The pattern will remain though and as soon as the new low clears & fills into Scandinavia then a repeat will occur with another straight(ish) Northerly late Sunday which will veer back but the Isobars will be more slack so likely to not to feel as cold as it will this coming Friday. Next week however could be quite interesting as another Low will again form out of the Denmark straight but with potential to be deeper with higher winds and precipitation with a slight possibility of high tides and interesting coastal conditions around the North Sea? We`ll see how this pans out,,, So not common conditions for this time of year at all and with the NAO (amongst other technical “teleconnections” which I`ll refrain from pointing out) staying negative then it`s looking beyond 10 days before any pure straight West to East Zonal Atlantic pattern affects the UK therefore temps will be below on average with wintry outbreaks likeliest over Scotland and high ground of Eng Wal & NIre. I don`t wish to offer anything on the long term side of things nor Winter`s chances but let`s say November may be an average month in terms of temps with the Atlantic and Jet stream never straying to far from the NW europe? But all in all i`ts good to be back!

1 dry day,yesterday tues 24th) in the last 8 working days Tadpoles swimming in my groin today amidst my own newt Going to update the weather thread on news of a far more settled, and dare I say it, warmer and drier May courtesy of us coming under influence of a Ridge to our NE (North europe/Scan area) but also threats of thundery incursions out of Biscay and Western France for some lively good old fashioned thunderstorms! but warmer at last, soon as Sunday for SE regions with the warmer air feed spreading N & W albeit with further heavy rain prior to the pressure build Monday/Tuesday.

catalpa bignoides?, 1 of the very few I can name without googling Apparently they can deter flies? hence why w`eve got one in our back garden, nice huge spreading leaves and generally takes little caring for, very popular on tree lined mediteranean roadside resorts.

Thu 29th Mar: Mumbling`s on various local radio stations of snow next week ? Needs verification on how far the High retrogresses North-Westwards and how significant the pressure lowers around the North sea/scandinavian region and associated troughs with northerly wind strength but definately much cooler conditions with very sharp frost`s but precipitation, no doubt wintry (North/east scotland & all eastern areas < 50 miles from shore) looks being light with little in terms of cyclonic strength looking this far out? Temps in the farthest Northern regions will be around 3-5C, 5-9C elsewhere with only anywhere south and west of say South Wales across to Hampshire breaking double figures so a huge difference coming up. But only a short colder spell?

Whereabouts you located again IB? I assume your probably in a western region as this current setup favors east (leeward) of high ground but its a matter of luck where the cloud breaks to allow for some early seasonal warmth. Low level thin cloud is hard to see on most satellite scans but it looks like parts of the far SW (CornW, Devon) are seeing some thicker trails? Central & Western Scottish areas appear to show some thicker cloud too from the trailing front east of Iceland? Generally speaking I don`t think we can say its warm overall as their is a definite chill in the SYorks air now but a modified polar incursion through Sat & Sun will definately make it feel cooler yet the Low`s spreading in for the weekend are now looking dis-organised without any real intensity to them casting aside stronger winds for the NW? But "Doom" is certainly a good pre-cursor to what most of the UK will be under for the mid-term without any substantial rain or wind but average to slightly lower temps before the High rebuilds back NW next week?

Sorry Iv`e been away Guys n Gals but Its good to be back with the settled conditions Winters over it seems and things are looking very similar pattern-wise to last years impressive early spring which brought us plenty of early high temps, not mentioning the worrying water shortages just yet. Very settled then for most parts aside the NW reaches but slow breakdown to more unsettled and cooler conditions as we go into the weekend with high winds for NIre, Sco & N eng as atlantic lows make a closer approach to the UK but nothing in terms of wintry falls under a 1000 feet altitude. Some models are projecting a slack more southerly patterned Low pressure which would bring rainfall for the south but we`ll have to wait for agreement midweek on this? The current High pressure is not moving away far whatever so we could well see a reload start to appear as we go into w/c 19th.

My bins are a bit dodgy too but canny see no endless sling(s) ? Gonna be a long summer so get a drink canister & snap hook too oh, factor 50 too,,,,erm,,, map, compass, altimeter, Garmin, sunglasses, hammock,,,,i know - a whistle Person specific tho but I take a pea shooter n some marrowfat dried peas to annoy the groundies

These mid to upper level (300 -500hpa layers) disturbances can be a forecasters nightmare as they periodically appear to be more or less in-detectable other than on water vapor imagery but they can drastically change a projected pattern, the failure of a locked in easterly/continental flow in this case as it forces or opens the way for the ridging south-west of the UK thus the anticyclonic or clockwise milder airflow in simple terms. The last FAX chart shows the shortwave as a trough just East off Sweden that quickly evolves into the associated baroclinic low which should be interesting for eastern areas Saturday? The cold sector will take some shifting over the SE by the looks of things however, with the air mass over Europe Scan W Russia etc. never being to distant East from the UK. Overall uncertainty in the charts in terms of timing the force of the block diminishing back eastwards and the ridging to our southwest along with low pressure intensity on the northern Jet arm through the GIN or Greenland/Iceland/Norwegian seas corridor. Feeling bitter tomorrow that`s for sure but I`m still not in favor or swayed by any keys to show anything substantial this Winter wotsoever (omitting Saturdays potential;))

Initially it was very viable Ironb but now we have a Shortwave projected to form from the Southern Baltic/Ger/Danish region moving Southwards, Westwards and just about any-what-waywards that`s thrown the charts back into relative uncertainty? But the milder breakdown is very much on the cards as the Shortwave will split the huge Russian High in two but with the new divergence hunckering down west offshore Spain/Biscay (azores ridging), as opposed to a more northerly point where we initially focussed on a latitude of 60° degrees or more - namely we offered over the Iceland, Greenland, Norwegian sea etc area. So a South-westerly airflow across the whole of the UK by end of play Sunday is a fair assumption but the temps will depend how cold the uppers are and how entrenched the ground temps will be following the hard frosts in the coming nights? Sometimes the fronts bringing the change petre out and the ground temps remain low, particularly more South and East you are, until another push (front) is required? Looking at next week then its likely, albeit eventually, back to a Zonal Atlantic feed with avg. temps and unsettled outbreaks between drier periods after a quiet start Monday but a fair few 500mb heights models have toyed with a mid-Atlantic ridge holding off the Jet stream oncemore introducing a more straight polar Northerly feed further down the line? We`ll see,,,

Try again: Any opinion on the new Stein lightweight ally X2`s?

Anymore confirmations of snow out of the band straggling SE from Dublin, Carmarthen, Swansea, Taunton to East Dorset westwards? Also a trough has come in off the North sea through eastern regions but has more or less diminished as its made its way inland to Lincs, Cambs. Norfolk. Suffolk & Kent?

Although some very heavy penetrating temps overnight are on the way the pattern looks settled with very little signs of accumulations and precipitation anywhere? Western fringes of Sco and NIre will also be on the boundaries of the cold dry air and the running milder Atlantic westerlies so in all the downgrade is very probable now all due to a failure of any High pressure transgressing westwards from Scandinavia to the Icelandic region. Temps returning back to average from early next week Mon/Tues is the highly probable outcome as things stand. Ice scraping = Certain Sledging = Unlikely

Happy to put a laymans slant on it J and although I may sway into technical terms at times I do strive to keep away from the high almighty academic "iv`e got a degree from reading books" type of forecasting and rely on good old knowledge from looking out the window and years of simply paying attention to patterns Theirs an old guy in the states who predicted exactly when a certain river would thaw in spring as opposed to some 2 bit boffin who had every Phd you could think of yet she was way off the mark and the indigenous old timer proved her wrong so the university of "life" beats any other quali in my eyes! Waffle over - back to basics: Fatal signs in the overnight model runs this morning. Remember how important Heights are in the Iceland, Greenland & Denmark straights region in maintaining and strengthening the block to keep any Eastern US seaboard & Atlantic influence from affecting us? well the trends are nothing to show any blocking therefore the relenting Jet has an open door regardless how strong it is as the "fluid dynamics" of things always chooses the path of least resistance which in turn cuts short any prolonged cold forcing for the UK due to our proximity regardless how strong any Scandinavian, W Russian etc etc. Anticyclone is! I would love for someone to detail why a truly massive shift of the Jet forecast for thousands of miles from no Northern arm with a southern Medflow to the exact opposite overnight? Key Day moved back to Thursday but definately Colder up to then. My Kudos go to the European Centre for Medium Weather Forcasting who were never that keen and must have noted the relentless Cyclogenesis in pushing Lows through Iceland etc areas. lets hope theirs more chop n change to come but the swings soon back in the Milder court and cold snap looks just that & nothing more this morn.