peckerwoo

I guess this is a different slant to the numerous TV forecasts but for those interested,,,, on the previous post I stated I would not post again until a significant change would be in the offing? Well I guess a few have spotted milder and breezy conditions set to return but not before a period of wet snow spreads N&E through tomorrow, Dont get me wrong in that its gonna feel actually warmer because it wont be while next tuesday until we will be frost free and the next few nights will still see severe frosts in sheltered northern UK places. Temps are going to begin recovering on average tomorrow, especially nearer to the SouthWest you are but Sunday and Monday will be temporarily cooler as the current polar low (which is too weak along with the Greenland High) affects us introducing the cold again before it quickly fills and swings NE to follow the main changing low coming with its embedded mild wet air from the Atlantic now. (Currently approaching from Fitzroy and sole area SW of scilly isles) These will both fill over western scandinavia over the weekend (when we have the cool blip) and although the aforementioned High will continue over Greenland the Azores High (AH) ridges into western europe stopping any encroachment westwards from the cold continent hence forcing anything in the atlantic to make a bee-line for the UK, The Jet stream incidentally is really kicking in directly over us also from midweek onwards. So it wont be a sudden change but slightly drawn out with temps hovering into double figures for the south for tomorrow (and drop 1°C for roughly every degree of latitude as you go North as a rough guide if you will?) but after Monday temps will rise quickly for us all and despite patterns of returned cold standing by in some circuits I think this milder mobile zonal pattern will be around for 7-10 days at least and with it being mid-January before we can look for further significent outcomes then the clock is ticking for Mr Winter! I rub my chin on that pre-xmas phrase concerning talk of an early spring but overall the last 6-7 week have been remarkably incredible in terms of cold temps! PS: below certifies 100% the mild Atlantic weather next week

Dave, Any views on the big mill system? We used it a few times and noted the flimsyness of the winder trolley (nylon string snapping despite sharp full revving MS660) and breaking/shearing handle heads on the guide rail support clamps that screw to the log ends. Must say very impressed with the quality of bench tops, Waymarker posts etc. sawn off but expected better sturdyness considering the cost? Noticed a lot of vibration also but maybe thats just down to the fact we were sawing right at the guide bar end?

I cant personally vouch for the pre-CRD Jeeps as my old 99 3.1TD GC was an utter and complete mega expensive let down. Maybe the newer common rail ones are ok but apart from looks my slant on Jeeps is a no-no. Anything with a trusted proven gearbox over 60k and well beyond is on my list.

from another thread,,, Not sure if Wakefields commutable Mick? but I did it daily for 3 yrs and as quick as 30 mins one way out of rush hour times. Worth a look for you?

Ross: Google "TW Butterfields" in Wakefield for contact details! I`m sure their recruiting for a groundie?

,,,,to secure at least 1 damn day of work a week! and following that get a new roof and fix all new acrhitraves, skirting, doors and frames plus carpet the house then get the liner in fix the chimney and get the Handol stove in then turf or/and mulch the rear and front garden, sort the hut and fencing. not much their then PS: work on making time to train and play with the local US football team would be a deserved leisure activity surely?

Interesting post! Bad news for the green fingered amongst us as palms are not keen on the levels of prolonged intense cold we have faced being only semi-hardy. Fingers crossed over my kiwi fruit in the hut but I fear the worst? Geeky bit but Cordylines are not a real true palm despite named cabbage palm - cordyline australis but are a direct Agave member so their looks like being some more exotic looking work coming up?? not a helpful reply i`ll admit 18S but good post nonetheless

Glenmorangie ,,,saying that the black grouse aint bad at all for a blended? Merry crimbo all

Hi John, Credentials? mmmmm, very little i`m afraid as my youth was spent very recklessly All we can do to attempt some sort of prediction is to look back and compare like for like? For instance most harsh winters that have seen averages below normal with Ice and snow common have been prior to hotter and drier summers. Of course, we can never predict with certainty anything other than whats within 48hrs or less in some circumstances? Patterns can be spotted and proven, and these stem from anything such as trade winds in the Pacific to stratospheric warming with enough in between to keep Einstein busy but more of an accurate "nearer the mark" thing than a total bust and its not just a "personal feeling" as I`d welcome snow in winter and storms in summer every year. We`ll see how it goes I guess but its time i got a life and dug into a beer before the mother-in-law turns up

The change does not look like coming in with a bang like of old where we had frontal snow before the raging wild atlantic westerlies brought us rain and high winds. Slow progress North and east of any frontal activity will fade away and temps will slowly recover everywhere but the further east and north you are any real milder air will be felt significantly less as the anti-cyclone sat over NW europe will have a cool feel to it and the surface cold hangs for quite a while due to the limited strength of the fronts approaching western Eire boxing day. The Jet strength is still low with a kick around new years flowing up around a slack high pressure system over NW europe diluting any real cold air that weve had over recent times so we are looking at a very dull uneventful couple of weeks if I were to offer anything with average to slightly lower temps still with overnight frosts but nothing as severe as just passed(ing). Not keen at all on the forthcoming setup as its benign "mucky" weather and can really eat into the shortest days without very cold weather reaching any chance to reform, their will be some spells of wintry weather coming along and severe again at that but before then I`d say winter will soon be living on borrowed time? Rainfall is an issue but an early spring and record breaking summer beckons Putting last nites Pittsburgh and Carolina game on, cracking open a bitburger barrel and quite frankly not giving a damn merry xmas arbtalkers PS: If any events form i`ll open a new thread for anyone interested.

couldnt agree more! I`ll not go into the fact the world is massively over-populated,,,,, wood is going to become very expensive and very soon!

That will be the last of the Snow for you lot down in the South West with temps reaching double figures after boxing day when late on a band of rain, preceded by snow in higher regions works its way east across the entire UK by the 27th. The cold has been mighty impressive and will still leave temps between 5 or 6 degrees in Scotland and Eastern parts of England after the Atlantic low passes after Boxing day but prior to what is now the inevitable milder pattern setting in then their will still be some near record breaking lows overnight thurs and xmas eve as the weather breifly turns very settled after an initial raw easterly flow affects the SE tomorrow and Friday. Possible reasons for the breakdown were higlighted in the previous thread a while ago and its a system currently affecting New England/Massachusetts USA thats kinked the Jet Stream and the slack passage over us will allow it to direct much nearer than where its currently been more or less non-existent and give us back our more accustommed Atlantic zonal influence. The harshed cold spell since 1981 though so its been a decent trend setter and the cold is not moving too far away go to go, 2 deliveries today so we WILL eat with Jesus on saturday

I`m a bit of an insomniac so can be hired out complete with over & under 12 gauge for stakeouts , 3 meals a day playing pool and going to the gym with my own tv and curtains awaits for a few year but I enjoy being outside in all weathers Seriously dont know how you chaps sleep at night worrying over security of plant etc.? bring back the birch and the stocks! Hope you get your gear back quick CSL!

thanks for that treeQ. Crazy weather sypnotics at the moment and a slack weather system of very cold embedded air over the entire UK is causing chaos with any predictions and weather maps/models etc.? It could snow literally anywhere at the moment but nothing is looking heavy (current lancashire precipitation exluded?) on the radars 18stone particularly around thamesvalley london area so i would go for it

any confirmations of snow falling in Lancashire regions spiralling in a circulation NE into W&N Yorks???

Observed sole varieties of beech, turkey oak, sycamore and even a sweet chestnut that had a few sole leaves on not to mention a few sheltered weeping willows. An ex-forces metrologist mentioned the peculiar looks amidst the snow scenes recently but I can only put it down to the relatively warmer winters in the last 2 decades on average which has given habitats a longer sense on holding onto their leafs? will be very interesting to record next autumn the timeframe which deciduous trees lose their leaves? Is their a tree variant of human self-expectancy that we adere to when we expect somethings going to happen yet act differently when the outcome is not what we first thought or assumed? ,,,,all I need is another ton of questions without answers at this particular time of weather chaos theory

chaos ensues? This is definately a 24hr timeframe until we know whos going to get dumped on and who escapes? (if thats the right word as I love snow) "Potential" (the BBC`s favorite indemnity get out clause) for heavy falls but now in more western as well as northern areas although the track of the polar low heading down tomorrow onwards will introduce some warmer sectors but again, as the isotherm will be -10 air aloft then the warmer convection can spark huge gradients and therefore very heavy precipitation. Alert time is back on Defcon 4 status

A quick short update: the previous link for Height (general Atlantic block strength in simple terms) data in Reyjavik Iceland showed a mean of over 1040MB on the 16th & 17th HERE latest figures HERE show the mean below 1035MB and falling off much quicker. I`m trying to say the centre is 800 mile further North nearer the Pole AND weaker therefore if a bookie offered 20/1 odds Mark i`d wager a knicker purely for the fun aspect as Milder Atlantic is now back onboard after a breif blast thats looking to give snow on a lesser scale and away from the south entirely albeit with a few nights of severe frost.

Was it not estimated that a couple of decades past something like 4% went to Uni and this 4% was the cream of the crop and very intelligent who learnt hard with what was then difficult A-Levels and the numbers would not have beared such a heavy burden on the Govt. in charge and the erstwhile taxpayer. Today we have more than 12X that number who all hold a worthless array of A-levels and dozens of school exam passes that are as taxing as a daily star crossword yet they all think its their god given right to disrespect society beleive their something above and generally live for next to nothing expecting to be molly-coddled along the way to their 100k+ professional job once graduated? I worked for a blue chip company and EVERY single team colleague was a uni graduate yet had no single thought of common sense whatsoever? A degree does not impress me in the slightest bit today as I see some, but not all students, as workshy attitude problem louts thinking the country owes them everything? The "AT crowd" (get it? whos "moss" lol) however are far more respected in my eyes as hard work through being told what to do from a young age and doing it rates above any false intellectual anyday! Bit of a rant and sorry to offend anyone but disrespecting the cenotaph and graffiti on winston churchill statue has made my blood boil

First off in regards to the great "GW debate" - I`m dubious that its valid and purely some form of a money-spinning scaremongering conspiracy from many worldwide govt. departments as mother earth can handle whatever a relatively primitive species such as mankind can envoke upon it and therefore "climate change" or "cycle" is much more apt if one goes back through history to examine the facts such as temperate forests in Greenland (alder, spruce, pine and members of the yew family!) having existed within the past million years via proofing from scientific ice core samples. Iv`e dipped my toe into the vastness that is Oceanography and despite becoming fascinated with evidence of a relatively recent shutdown of the thermohaline current/Atlantic conveyor/ Gulf stream call it what you will, then although questions have been raised suggesting a slowing of the flow in the last few years, a total cessation (although devastating to NW regions of Europe that are only adapted to warm temperatures) is on par with odds of a metorite impact as far as the methodical thinking scientist assumes (dont mention Tunguska please ) BUT having said that history once again provides us with data relating to the current grinding to a total halt on much more than one occasion. Cycle is a firm word to possibly explain a lot of what has been going off in the last couple of decades albeit in an incredibly accelerated mode but temperature averages fluctuated by as much as 8°C annualy within southern Greenland during the last inter glacial period so lightning turnarounds can and do happen although some prefer to call it Abrupt climate change Some contributors to the debate favor the current freshwater run-off from glacier melt (salt water salinity) as an indicator for slowing the Global Great Ocean Conveyor Belt which encompasses the gulf stream but what for example an extreme La Nina period with cooling sectors off the western pacific that the GGOCB runs through has more of an effect of slowing the system and ice melt is not the reasoning? Far to deep a subject for me Paul but I`m happy to offer an opinion anytime but as you pointed out maybe its more suited to keeping things on topic for the time being The renewed blast on Thursday has similar potential to cause widespread disruption but more about that early next week, the winds however will be stronger this time quickT so areas where those record overnight lows were recorded will see values nearer the -4°C to -6°C but rural areas of mountainous N Wales and the scottish highlands could go past -10° where sheltered valleys lie out of the wind. Models are in disagreement after 7 days and the initial pointers to an Atlantic breakthrough are now 50/50 again so maybe the record average temp for December might still be broken???

Following on from the last thread I figure some of us would take renewed interest in whats turning out to be an eventful Autumn and Winter so here goes with another punt at what may be on offer weather wise for the remainder of the year with a breif notion on what January and February may bring? The current milder period may be welcome in some parts that endured record falls and low temps so as we have seen todays recovery to 4° & 5°C values spread across the UK then the current High pressure re-alignment west of N.Ire & Eire will retain the milder airflow until the weekend when warm air advection from 2 systems in the Atlantic and a low headed south down Norway forces the High pressure anti-cyclone to Bulge centred around the Shetland isles region and develop a tell tale Heart shape which although allowing severe frosts should give liitle precipitation. Its beginning to look like wednesday (15th) when once again the high will retrogress NW back to Greenland (measureable height rise ensembles for Reyjavik support this Here) and a Polar low around the Barents sea will force a bitter pure Northerly blast down giving us low temps that we have recently seen and although no frontal snow or troughs can be mapped this soon the strength of the wind should allow for potentially heavy outbreaks in Northern Scotland and right down the entire North sea coastal regions, this of course hinges on a shortwave spin off near southern Norway forming through Wednesday. So all in all another very cold spell again next week albeit from more of a northerly source so less in the way of snowfall apart from the places mentioned. The last thread detailed many aspects of what could be causing the current conditions and one I did not mention was the Polar vortex that in recent times forces High pressure to never settle over Greenland and leaves us to the accustomed mild and windy Atlantic via the gulf stream low pressure systems that develop east of newfoundland under the pseudonym of "Cyclogenesis" - is it a pre-cursor of Solar minima that has halted this once again in a similar vain to January this year > > > Intriguing BBC news article? In the mid-term I would refrain from placing a white xmas flutter as although snow may be lying on the ground I would say conditions for latter December are looking to have waned back to a more Zonal pattern as a Canadian ridge has been picked up on by some models which could introduce the afformentioned Polar Vortex back over Greenland and pave the way for the Jet to send us the missing Atlantic lows and milder wetter pattern into the new year with a more settled mid January period into February with what I dare say as an early Spring if a slack anti-cyclone settles overwestern europe? all hypothetical again and long winded but hey,,,,

Very humbled by the responses thanks, but I do enjoy studying (didnt do much at skoyal (school) lol) the plethora of data one can retrieve from the net but Iv`e got full on problems dealing with roof leaks ATM thanks to -9°C temps and ancient tiles so mrs peck is on my case big time Observers could become mistaken from the westerly flow thats arriving now over the UK but its of a pure polar maritime flavour as opposed to air from the western atlantic therefore not as cold as recent but still very chilly and merely a less cold blip before a reload occurs through sunday into next week. The jet stream does contribute but not solely and is driven from such teleconnections from Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillation (AO & NAO) through to tropical trade winds, global mountain torque, Stratospheric warming & cooling and the much hyped La Ninas and El ninos of this world, Not much to factor in their then I here you ask? HERE shows the current domestic and wider sea surface temps which play their part but your on the ball offering that this record colds here for a while longer yet Jay but hold on before going for a flutter on a white xmas as its foolish to yay or nay until 144 hrs before the big day but you can still beat the bookies if your quick! MTF

The conditions now are well below average temps with outbreaks of snow for many places now througout the UK, Coastal fringes have recently been exposed to very interesting conditions of thundersnow (quite an interesting phenomenon), ice pellet and graupel falls (similar to freezing rain but falls frozen as opposed to freezing on landfall like freezing rain) all in all a very rare and unique event that I have never witnessed in the month of November in my 40`s, truly amazing and even more interesting is the air masses placed across Greenland right the way across the N Atlantic, Iceland and scandinavia into the heart of Northern Russia that have NO IMMEDIATE signs of being displaced by any of contributor such as Polar Jet Front, Polar Vortex or Gulf Jet Stream currently on an extended holiday Maybe our climate has changed to give us a winter where living at our latitude elsewhere in the world would normally bring? ie: much colder winters than we have been used to in the last 2 decades?

The first section of -5° isotherm upper air will spread into NE areas of Scotland late tomorrow and will instantly allow any precipitation to be wintry or snow over higher ground particularly over 600ft but nonetheless coastal regions could see sleet/wet snow. Pinpointing the troughs (areas of persistant rain/sleet &snow) is difficult right up to the nearest hour any organised moisture falls so check HERE and HERE for up to date satellite imagery! Looking like the real blast will arrive via NE scotland, again, late Friday where -10° upper values will be moving aloft but this still hinges on the shortwave development I mentioned in earlier posts? Just another reminder of where the air will be coming from and Agata in Krasnoyarsk, Russia, currently reading at -38°C (or minus 36.4° fahrenheit in old money) is roughly the region where airflow stems from come the weekend! They are accustomed to such low temps but here??? I trust i`m not waffling on here chaps and chappesses but i assume most of us work outside therefore the atmospheric effect plays a vital part at times?

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