Will a lot of small domestic tree firms go bust?

[Sutton]

Any positives to keep in mind?

 

1. Ash Die back will keep many afloat, as others have said.

2. Increased used machinery sales, though indicative of a few firms cutting their losses, does mean kit replacement costs will be lower for those who decide to hang on in.

3. And talking to a neighbour yesterday, we were reminded of what happened after the drought of 1976 and the parallels with this year being a mast year. There are more acorns, conkers, beech nuts etc than usual. His boy said it was because trees were stressed in the drought this summer and therefore pushed alot of their reserves into new replacement i.e. reproduction rather than saving what little they have left for winter dormancy to start again afresh next spring.

 

What's the arb technical term for this self-sacrifice for the next generation?

 

On this subject, a New Scientist article looked interesting but was behind a paywall.

 

This other piece states the very obvious fact that if it rains after a drought then trees recover by next year. If not, then they wont. Who'd have thought it? 🤣 Anyway, the UK is certainly getting it's share of catchup rain. But the chances are still higher that many street and verge trees as well as residential gardens will decline or fail to bud in Spring 2023.

 

When a drought is over, here is what happens to forested areas where trees have died

PHYS.ORG

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A large international team of researchers has found that forested areas that experience tree loss due to drought have a wide...

 

[doobin]

Judging by what other firms quoted to do some stumps recently, the recession is a long way off in Surrey! I don't think that's actually the case, I think it will hit very hard and very quick, just folk don't realise yet.

 

Two large stumps, around 3 ft each. Took me two hours on site including drinking coffee and then I went on to another job. I went in at £250+VAT just to get the job in order to test the PTO grinder on the alpine. Not the sort of thing one can test at the yard. Normally I'd guess around £350 for the lot? I'm new to grinding and there seems to be a lot of money in it. I made £550+vat by 2PM with the second job so I was happy with that, plus the grinder worked a treat.

 

Nearest quote for the first two stumps was £450, a bloke a mile up the road wanted £960 plus VAT! Even if spending all day with a pedestrian grinder that's stupid money.

 

People don't realise that this boom is all down to mortgage rates. Just as soon as your average Surrey house has to remortgage the £1m balance at 6% rather than 1%, that's £50K per year that they will not be spending in their garden.

 

It's coming.

 

 

[pie eater pete]

What it will do is get some firms dropping their prices to win work. But that's always been the case..

[aspenarb]

The lads on domestic work around here have been eating the faces off each other for years, if it gets ant tighter most will probably  park their kit and do something else until things pick up. You have to feel for those with a lot finance commitments, having to work elsewhere to pay for laid up kit has to be tough going.

 

Bob

[Dan Maynard]

1 hour ago, doobin said:

Two large stumps, around 3 ft each. Took me two hours on site including drinking coffee and then I went on to another job. I went in at £250+VAT just to get the job in order to test the PTO grinder on the alpine. Not the sort of thing one can test at the yard. Normally I'd guess around £350 for the lot? I'm new to grinding and there seems to be a lot of money in it. I made £550+vat by 2PM with the second job so I was happy with that, plus the grinder worked a treat.

 

People don't realise that this boom is all down to mortgage rates. Just as soon as your average Surrey house has to remortgage the £1m balance at 6% rather than 1%, that's £50K per year that they will not be spending in their garden.

 

 

We're on a fixed price energy deal for a while, fixed price mortgage deals which are 2-3 years will spread it out - but I agree a lot of people in for a shock when it comes to the end of the fixed period. I think we had a dip over summer as everyone concentrated on holiday but that seems to have been short lived.

 

My guess would be £200-250 for each of those 3ft stumps which makes the bloke at £450 on the money, but people do charge quite a range. There is money in grinding, but then again stump grinders are expensive and break a lot, so it's tricky to work out the real costs. Now that I hire in I've got rid of that capital element to someone else, and I'm not paying for the grinder on days that I'm not using it. In a day going round to do 4 or 5 stumps I can make good money but it's not something I could do every day - too hard on the back.

 

 

[Mick Dempsey]

Lots of work will simply disappear, people won’t want to pay for deadwooding, Fanny fart reductions, thinning, twice yearly hedge trims etc.

 

 

 

[Ty Korrigan]

Fibre optic line clearance has provided a small but welcome local boom but that will be over in a month.

Few larger jobs to boast about on instagram and precious few removals.

  2 large eucs were the tenant is keeping the wood (Huzzah!) and a rare Monkey Puzzle, a first for my climber and again the client is keeping the wood (for he believes what lies within to be gold)

What we really need is a series of storms like last years to keep the phone ringing.

              Stuart

[Mark Bolam]

2 hours ago, Mick Dempsey said:

Lots of work will simply disappear, people won’t want to pay for deadwooding, Fanny fart reductions, thinning, twice yearly hedge trims etc.

 

 

 

Thank fukk!

[John Shutler]

my slice of the market has moved over the last couple of years. we now seem to do a lot of LA stuff, estates and development sites as well as larger domestic works. i’m busier than i’ve ever been with 170k of work on the books to do over the next few months. 

 

if work did go quiet i’d send some kit back and drop back onto a reduced setup with kit that i own outright 

[Mark Bolam]

Finance is a handy tool and I’ve used it a lot over the years.

 

I feel zero sympathy for anyone who has bought their whole outfit on the drip, though.