Lockdown - has it totally failed?

[openspaceman]

3 minutes ago, Rob D said:

So we are told - again could be true and may not be true - we will likely never know.

 

 

It's interesting how different peer groups have differing takes on subjects. This forum is populated with a majority of entrepreneurial types who are spurred on by success, this leads us to tend to be right of centre, question our masters and be sceptical.

 

I can look back of a number of political events, from vietnam era and onward and with hindsight and occam's razor I note that the most likely reason for things to have happened are simple and most conspiracy theories are propounded by people out to make a buck, or sell a news story.

[Tommy_B]

26 minutes ago, Woodworks said:

So by the time we reach herd immunity we have 216 dead Arbtalkers.

 

Does that sound like good plan?

 

I might vote for it if I can select them

[TIMON]

I might vote for it if I can select them

?. Classic

[tree-fancier123]

1 hour ago, Rob D said:

If we get something like this second wave - we are pretty screwed. But since 1918 we haven't much worried about it... it's always been a threat yet we have have managed to live with this threat since 1918. COVID is nothing like what this illness named Spanish Flu [but the illness that killed millions was nothing like the flu so not a great name for it].

they don't quote the numbers with accuracy - I should not have used the top part of the 17-50m range

this article appeared in quite a few outlets back in 2014, basically scientists in the US were trying to mutate bird flu in such a way as to recreate the harmful mutations seen in Spanish Flu. Many scientists condemned the work, pointing out that if these experimental mutants got out it could lead to a man made pandemic.

Scientists condemn 'crazy, dangerous' creation of deadly airborne flu virus | Science | The Guardian

WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

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Researchers say recreation of Spanish flu strain highlights risk of pandemic, but critics say work puts global population at risk

It seems the crazy researchers were lying low, or cowed for a years by safety fears, but just last year another article from Science mag saying the dangerous experiments set to resume. If a really harmful mutant doesn't surface in the wild, it seems humans will step in and try to make it in the lab

EXCLUSIVE: Controversial experiments that could make bird flu more risky poised to resume

WWW.SCIENCEMAG.ORG

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Two “gain of function” projects halted more than 4 years ago have passed new U.S. review process

 

[Woodworks]

47 minutes ago, Rob D said:

You can't say it's not possible with certainty - you are not an expert on this.

 

And don't put the responsibility of 216 dead arbtalkers onto me because I have a different opinion to you. I didn't cause this virus. A good example of an extreme statistic to backup a weak argument.

 

 

You do the maths and I think you can say with certainty it's not possible. I may have done the maths wrong so check

 

We all have to  bare the responsibiles of our choices every day and this in no different. Not saying the other way is great and we may end up down the herd immunity rout anyway but I would like to give the alternative a chance in these early days. 

 

The stats I posted are not extreme. If I wanted to do that I would have use the WHOs original death rate of 3.4%

[tree-fancier123]

99.972% survive in UK, as per table

100-99.972% die = 0.028%

0.00028*67886011=19,008 (more than 19000 have died in UK) so the table may have been 'calculated' a few weeks ago, or just done by another idiot like me who knows how to waste time

[Rob D]

1 hour ago, Tommy_B said:

I might vote for it if I can select them

??

[Rob D]

45 minutes ago, Woodworks said:

You do the maths and I think you can say with certainty it's not possible. I may have done the maths wrong so check

 

We all have to  bare the responsibiles of our choices every day and this in no different. Not saying the other way is great and we may end up down the herd immunity rout anyway but I would like to give the alternative a chance in these early days. 

 

The stats I posted are not extreme. If I wanted to do that I would have use the WHOs original death rate of 3.4%

 

Can't do the maths as there are no accurate figures to go on - the figures look neat and tidy but there are so many variables and unknowns they may not be close to accurate.

 

Stating 216 arbtalkers dead is using an extreme statement to add weight to your argument. It's likely that after this is over there will have been deaths amoungst arbtalkers. And it's trying to balance that with how much do we limit our freedoms and still live with the knowledge that some of us will likely die from this.

 

 

[Rob D]

57 minutes ago, Woodworks said:

You do the maths....

I believe it's more fashionable these days to say 'you do the math...! Sorry wee joke there!

[Woodworks]

22 minutes ago, Rob D said:

I believe it's more fashionable these days to say 'you do the math...! Sorry wee joke there!

I am dyslexic so laugh away no skin off my nose on that one ?