Covid-19

[Woodworks]

6 hours ago, monkeybusiness said:

Infections will increase again now, and they need to if we are going to return to ‘normality’. 
Providing the NHS doesn’t become overwhelmed and people needing treatment aren’t turned away or selected/deselected for treatment then my thoughts are that we are getting through this as well as we possibly can. 
 

"Providing the NHS doesn’t become overwhelmed" there is our big problem. Hospitals still have plenty of patients from the first round still on the wards. For some recovery is a very slow process so it wont take much to overwhelm NHS. We may have built new buildings but you cant train all the extra staff overnight. 

 

Boris mentions the R cant go back over 1 again so unless we are super "alert" we will be straight back into lockdown. Mind you they say the R is between  0.5 or 0.9 so glad they narrowed that down!

[Woodworks]

Reading and interesting study from Germany this morning. If it's right and the UK is similar we might be a long way down the road to herd immunity. ONS stats say there have been 50000 excess deaths (presumably from Covid?) and you could extrapolate that maybe 13 million of us may have had it! 

Heinsberg Study results published — Universität Bonn

WWW.UNI-BONN.DE

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The district of Heinsberg in the German state of North Rhine-Westphalia is considered a hot spot for the novel Coronavirus...

 

 

I really should go and cut some logs instead of trying to understand this stuff  ?

Edited May 13, 2020 by Woodworks

[Squaredy]

20 minutes ago, Woodworks said:

Reading and interesting study from Germany this morning. If it's right and the UK is similar we might be a long way down the road to herd immunity. ONS stats say there have been 50000 excess deaths (presumably from Covid?) and you could extrapolate that maybe 13 million of us may have had it! 

Heinsberg Study results published — Universität Bonn

WWW.UNI-BONN.DE

---

The district of Heinsberg in the German state of North Rhine-Westphalia is considered a hot spot for the novel Coronavirus...

 

 

I really should go and cut some logs instead of trying to understand this stuff  ?

Yeah that is interesting.  And reassuring, as what we all seem to be forgetting is that in the short to medium term the only real way out of this situation is for us to get herd immunity.  In other words most of us need to get the virus and recover.

 

For most of us we cannot dodge it forever.  The most vulnerable perhaps should be shielded, but even this is debatable.  My mum is 80 in three months, lives on her own and has had no proper contact with her two sons or two grandchildren (or indeed anyone) in 7 weeks.  A vaccine could be years away.  If we keep trying to shield her she could eventually die in a few years lonely and sad.  She would rather take her chances and have a 90% chance of a normal life than stay locked down for an unknown period.  As soon as the law allows, she will be visiting her family and I don't blame her.

 

Remember, the scientists have said that it is possible we will never find a vaccine.

[Stubby]

15 minutes ago, Squaredy said:

Yeah that is interesting.  And reassuring, as what we all seem to be forgetting is that in the short to medium term the only real way out of this situation is for us to get herd immunity.  In other words most of us need to get the virus and recover.

 

For most of us we cannot dodge it forever.  The most vulnerable perhaps should be shielded, but even this is debatable.  My mum is 80 in three months, lives on her own and has had no proper contact with her two sons or two grandchildren (or indeed anyone) in 7 weeks.  A vaccine could be years away.  If we keep trying to shield her she could eventually die in a few years lonely and sad.  She would rather take her chances and have a 90% chance of a normal life than stay locked down for an unknown period.  As soon as the law allows, she will be visiting her family and I don't blame her.

 

Remember, the scientists have said that it is possible we will never find a vaccine.

I am 67 and don't ever remember having proper flu . Had some " man colds " and stuff but not proper flu . Do you think I may have had flu or even C19 and not realized ?  ( not taking the piss , genuine question ) 

Edited May 13, 2020 by Stubby

[difflock]

At 60 I think? I only had influenza once,

I felt like someone had given me a kicking with the resulting ache in my bones/muscles,

definately different to the common cold that most twats assert is "the flu" they are "dying" from.

[David Cropper]

11 minutes ago, Stubby said:

I am 67 and don't ever remember having proper flu . Had some " man colds " and stuff but not proper flu . Do you think I may have had flu or even C19 and not realized ?  ( not taking the piss , genuine question ) 

If you get flu Stubby, you know about it. I got it last year as there was an epidemic over here. I even know how I got it. Just finished a grinding job for a French bloke on the Saturday, went to get paid by his wife, she said don't come too near as I'm getting over the flu. Monday I'm out working , feeling like death, finished the job after lunch, went home, bedded down for a couple of days. Took around 8 days to recover but still felt like crap. I got a touch of the Corvid a few weeks ago when my wife was very bad with it. A couple of hours feeling slightly ropey one day then the same the following day. That was it. It seems to have several different effects for different people.

[Woodworks]

50 minutes ago, Stubby said:

I am 67 and don't ever remember having proper flu . Had some " man colds " and stuff but not proper flu . Do you think I may have had flu or even C19 and not realized ?  ( not taking the piss , genuine question ) 

Only had flu once but knew all about it. It was back in 2010 and brought back asthma which I had not suffered with for years. Get a flu shot each year now.

 

"Do you think I may have had flu or even C19 and not realized ?" No idea if you get asymptomatic flu carriers but no doubt you can have Covid 19 without knowing. They tested all the staff at Liz's work and 2 came back positive and they had no symptoms whatsoever. This is part of why it is tricky to contain as you can have no symptoms but pass it onto another and kills them!

 

In the German study in my link 20% of carriers were asymptomatic 

 

Edited May 13, 2020 by Woodworks

[Haironyourchest]

Covid may have been around much longer than they're letting on. In October, the cell phone data shows no activity for several days on the roads around Wuhan. Something happened that caused the Chinese to isolate Wuhan. In October. A city the size of London. Domestic flights into and out of Wuhan were grounded shortly after, but not international flights. It was October - November my wifey got a really nasty flu. I was actually thinking about calling for an ambulance. I got it but not as bad, shortness of breath, took a month to kick it.  Couple of local auld boys went to hospital with galloping pneumonia. More oldies passed away than usual leading up to Christmas.

     

Edited May 13, 2020 by Haironyourchest

[Steve Bullman]

26 minutes ago, Haironyourchest said:

Covid may have been around much longer than they're letting on. In October, the cell phone data shows no activity for several days on the roads around Wuhan. Something happened that caused the Chinese to isolate Wuhan. In October. A city the size of London. Domestic flights into and out of Wuhan were grounded shortly after, but not international flights. It was October - November my wifey got a really nasty flu. I was actually thinking about calling for an ambulance. I got it but not as bad, shortness of breath, took a month to kick it.  Couple of local auld boys went to hospital with galloping pneumonia. More oldies passed away than usual leading up to Christmas.

     

They keep talking about the second wave, this could quite possibly be the second wave already. I too was I’ll at Christmas, in fact the whole family were. The only people who escaped it were my parents who were both at mine for Christmas Day dinner. It came in waves for me, I was ill leading up to Christmas then felt ok(ish) on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, then Christmas Day evening it hit me and I was layed up on the couch for the next 2 weeks with all the Covid symptoms 

[Peter 1955]

1 hour ago, Squaredy said:

Yeah that is interesting.  And reassuring, as what we all seem to be forgetting is that in the short to medium term the only real way out of this situation is for us to get herd immunity.  In other words most of us need to get the virus and recover.

 

For most of us we cannot dodge it forever.  The most vulnerable perhaps should be shielded, but even this is debatable.  My mum is 80 in three months, lives on her own and has had no proper contact with her two sons or two grandchildren (or indeed anyone) in 7 weeks.  A vaccine could be years away.  If we keep trying to shield her she could eventually die in a few years lonely and sad.  She would rather take her chances and have a 90% chance of a normal life than stay locked down for an unknown period.  As soon as the law allows, she will be visiting her family and I don't blame her.

 

Remember, the scientists have said that it is possible we will never find a vaccine.

That's one of the most sensible posts I've seen on here, or anywhere else. ( In my humble opinion). If you remember, we were originally trying for Herd Immunity, until talk of half a million deaths frightened politicians. It's not a nice thing to say, but perhaps the cure of everybody staying cooped up behind locked doors, while the country goes bankrupt is worse than the disease of higher than normal death rates. And before anyone suggests otherwise, my wife and I are both in At Risk/ High Risk categories, so I'm not speaking as someone unlikely to be harmed.