Making the news today....

[tree-fancier123]

1 minute ago, trigger_andy said:

The last down turn was because OPEC see's US Shale as a major competitor and would destabilize their position. So OPEC turned on the taps dropping Crude down from $100 a barrel to a price well below the break even cost of Shale. Which was about mid to high $60's. But the US Shale through ruthless cutbacks and innovation reduced their break even down to mid to high $20's, or low $30's, I cant remember now. But OPEC blinked first and agreed to chock back. I do wonder if Shale can withstand another stress test so soon after the last, and biggest down turn Ive ever seen. I guess thats yet to be seen. But this latest pissing contest is with Russia. One things for sure, Shale is here to stay. Frac Rigs will just get mothballed till the prices go back up a little. Shale oil in the US is beyond massive and now fairly cheap to produce thanks to new tech and OPEC for forcing their hand.  

 

The US just needs to get a proper foothold in Venezuela and OPEC will lose its control on the market. 

they say corona has destroyed 1/3 demand, fortunes will be made and lost, hope the pundits are wrong about extent of economic collapse. The chinese are a bit more blunt than us 'keep the factories running, just pile up the dead staff over there and we will collect and replace'

[trigger_andy]

Just now, tree-fancier123 said:

they say corona has destroyed 1/3 demand, fortunes will be made and lost, hope the pundits are wrong about extent of economic collapse. The chinese are a bit more blunt than us 'keep the factories running, just pile up the dead staff over there and we will collect and replace'

Im surprised its as little as 1/3. Yeh, gonna be a bit of a different world going forward. Hopefully one where we collectively stand up to China. Wish I had the spare cash to invest in Gold. Id like more than the measly amount I have as a safety buffer. 

[tree-fancier123]

30 minutes ago, trigger_andy said:

Im surprised its as little as 1/3. Yeh, gonna be a bit of a different world going forward. Hopefully one where we collectively stand up to China. Wish I had the spare cash to invest in Gold. Id like more than the measly amount I have as a safety buffer. 

Invest in frozen and dried food. It hasnt rained here for two/three weeks. Always a good chance of a drought and famine after a plague

[Conor Wright]

7 hours ago, tree-fancier123 said:

Invest in frozen and dried food. It hasnt rained here for two/three weeks. Always a good chance of a drought and famine after a plague

Drought, famine and plague and you reckon there will be electricity to run the freezer, I must admire your optimism!

[trigger_andy]

7 hours ago, tree-fancier123 said:

Invest in frozen and dried food. It hasnt rained here for two/three weeks. Always a good chance of a drought and famine after a plague

I really don think things will get anywhere near as bad as that in the UK. But we could get hit with inflation quite badly and any savings you have will be heavily dented. Where as the markets will turn to Metals in such a time as they traditionally do and you will have protected your savings. 

 

There's only so much Rice I can store too.  

[tree-fancier123]

Just now, Conor Wright said:

Drought, famine and plague and you reckon there will be electricity to run the freezer, I must admire your optimism!

with a tank of red a genny could be run, if soundproofed so the raiders don't hear it. The British Isles are surrounded by sea water, so worst case and a dry summer like Aus just had, we could de-salinate using e.g wind power.

 

yesterday - '

The price of Thai white rice, a benchmark, has risen from $450 a tonne in February to more than $560 a tonne, even though there is no shortage of it and global stockpiles are at a record high. Russia and Kazakhstan have also imposed bans on exports of processed grain, though nothing that would explain the run on plain flour at western supermarkets.

In some cases a sense of panic is understandable. Egypt, which this year announced that its population had reached 100 million, is the world’s biggest importer of wheat, with bread subsidised for its largely impoverished population.

On Thursday, Mostafa Madbouly, the prime minister, said that Egypt was intending to increase its minimum reserves of staples such as rice and sugar from three to six months.'

[tree-fancier123]

Just now, trigger_andy said:

I really don think things will get anywhere near as bad as that in the UK. But we could get hit with inflation quite badly and any savings you have will be heavily dented. Where as the markets will turn to Metals in such a time as they traditionally do and you will have protected your savings. 

 

There's only so much Rice I can store too.  

well the last bad virus was 1918, the last famine around 1845-1850, - at that time we didn't have the crop protection available today, or GM, but world population was only 1.2 billion back then, a real lack of rainfall across most of the wheat fields would be dodgy. 

I just think that the UK in particular have taken food security for granted. Allowing in 200, 000 odd immigrants in each year for nearly 20 years on the trot and building on much of our agricultural land to house the growing population. This possibility of a really dry year with insufficient rainfall for crops right across EU really does worry me. Politicians think economic growth is the main thing - they are mad. Environmental sustainability is the only important thing. People can do without the trappings of wealth, but food and water - I mean I've never been hungry or thirsty in my whole life

 

'Countries like Algeria, Morocco and the Philippines have stepped up efforts to top up their grain reserves as big producers including top wheat producer Russia and the world’s third-largest rice exporter Vietnam imposed restrictions on overseas sales. Large importers have also been spooked by logistical bottlenecks including a lack of truck and train drivers and port staff in France, another leading wheat exporter.'

[Stere]

UK suppliers can afford to outbid other countries  on international markets its poor places that will starve first. So more likely just higher food prices and some limited availiablity.

 

The current locust swarm might kill a few million in Africa possibly  more  deaths than Corona

 

E. Africa locust swarms gather as coronavirus delays pesticides

NEWS.TRUST.ORG

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Delayed deliveries due to the coronavirus means East Africa will run out of pesticides soon as locusts continue to ravage...

 

Edited April 6, 2020 by Stere

[trigger_andy]

10 minutes ago, tree-fancier123 said:

well the last bad virus was 1918, the last famine around 1845-1850, - at that time we didn't have the crop protection available today, or GM, but world population was only 1.2 billion back then, a real lack of rainfall across most of the wheat fields would be dodgy. 

I just think that the UK in particular have taken food security for granted. Allowing in 200, 000 odd immigrants in each year for nearly 20 years on the trot and building on much of our agricultural land to house the growing population. This possibility of a really dry year with insufficient rainfall for crops right across EU really does worry me. Politicians think economic growth is the main thing - they are mad. Environmental sustainability is the only important thing. People can do without the trappings of wealth, but food and water - I mean I've never been hungry or thirsty in my whole life

 

'Countries like Algeria, Morocco and the Philippines have stepped up efforts to top up their grain reserves as big producers including top wheat producer Russia and the world’s third-largest rice exporter Vietnam imposed restrictions on overseas sales. Large importers have also been spooked by logistical bottlenecks including a lack of truck and train drivers and port staff in France, another leading wheat exporter.'

 

Yeh, I can see that the shit could hit the fan quite easily. I think we could produce a large portion of what we need here in the UK if people started to produce their own food. We're taking this a bot more seriously this year. We're gonna greatly increase the veg plot, too late for this seasons growing, or at least the first part of it. But its good to be prepared. And although its hard work its satisfying work. I cant tend to it much working away but the missus is more on-board so she'll be helping more. But Ive already got loads planted in pots waiting to go out to the Polytunnles. 

 

Yes immigration at the unsustainable levels we're seeing in the UK and Europe as a whole is pure madness, but try telling the Bleeding Heart Lefties this. By the time comes to say 'I told you so' It will be to late for everyone. Ah well. 

[openspaceman]

51 minutes ago, tree-fancier123 said:

Politicians think economic growth is the main thing - they are mad. Environmental sustainability is the only important thing

Hear Hear