Covid-19

[Peasgood]

Aunt seems to have had it. All the symptoms but not tested.

Self isolating on her own at home and got to the stage where she thought she wasn’t going to make it but is getting better now. She called me today so sounds like she is nearly better.

Over 70, so you are not automatically done for as Charles also showed.

[Stere]

A call to honesty in pandemic modeling - Wesley Pegden - Medium

MEDIUM.COM

---

Maria Chikina and Wesley Pegden

 

 

Some more data modelling stuff...

 

About second wave a possibilities when lockdowns are lifted.

 

But surely imo a second wave may be  preventable  if it can be made locally extinct, which is  is now being reported as the case in China.

 

 

They are saying its  only imported cases atm in China  that can be controlled by contact tracing/testing etc so they may not require a continued internal  lockdown for much longer. (And it was only a  % of China that was in full lockdown not the whole country like the UK)

 

That being the case can see global travel being restricted for  at least a year as countries won't want to re -introduce it, from parts of the world were they still have outbreaks.

 

Still  early to say how well it will be dealt with in 3rd world places etc...

 

 

Edited April 2, 2020 by Stere

[Woodworks]

7 hours ago, Stere said:

A call to honesty in pandemic modeling - Wesley Pegden - Medium

MEDIUM.COM

---

Maria Chikina and Wesley Pegden

 

 

Some more data modelling stuff...

 

About second wave a possibilities when lockdowns are lifted.

 

But surely imo a second wave may be  preventable  if it can be made locally extinct, which is  is now being reported as the case in China.

 

 

They are saying its  only imported cases atm in China  that can be controlled by contact tracing/testing etc so they may not require a continued internal  lockdown for much longer. (And it was only a  % of China that was in full lockdown not the whole country like the UK)

 

That being the case can see global travel being restricted for  at least a year as countries won't want to re -introduce it, from parts of the world were they still have outbreaks.

 

Still  early to say how well it will be dealt with in 3rd world places etc...

 

 

Bear in mind what they we call a lockdown and what China did are not comparable. My Nephew is out in China and not in a badly hit area but he basically did not go out for 2 months. They have a nominated shopper who bulk buys for many in one go. Get out on the street and have your temperature taken and you wear a mask at all times when out. Nothing like that here so we wont be able to shut it down in the same way unless we are prepared to go that far.

[Stere]

Think you may be  right.

 

An R0 value of 1 means the average person who gets that disease will transmit it to one other person; in that case, the disease is spreading but at a stable rate. A value of less than 1 means a disease is in decline and could die out.

 

So UK lockdown measures would have to get RO below 1 to follow China.

 

 

Seems extreme lockdown worked in China, but the big question is will the   "halfway house" UK lvl lockdown atm  reduce cases enough  so they don't have to carry on until a vacine if they want to avoid a second wave. 

.

 

 

Im unsure what the UK exit stratergy is, try to aim to follow what China did,  or just try and  wait it out, till a vaccine, but that will require alot   longer lockdown.

 

So the economic impact for UK could be alot more than in China if the duration of lockdowns are longer. Maybe this is why they have sudenly decide they now  need to test alot more and and are even talking abourt digital phone app that trace contacts like Korea and China has.

 

EDIT

 

Looking at the daily cases data for several countries such as Spain and Italy that are ahead of the UK on the curve, they seem to be plateaued for a several days now maybe longer than China did i think,  so RO must be around 1. (with a week-ish delay in feeback due to inncubation time until symptoms apear).

 

PPE and testing for medical staff especially could be be the crucial factors, as a very small change in RO will feeback and make a big difference to cases curve trajectory.

 

 

Edited April 3, 2020 by Stere

[doobin]

14 hours ago, Peasgood said:

Aunt seems to have had it. All the symptoms but not tested.

Self isolating on her own at home and got to the stage where she thought she wasn’t going to make it but is getting better now. She called me today so sounds like she is nearly better.

Over 70, so you are not automatically done for as Charles also showed.

Come on man, he'd have been given the blood of aborted fetuses if that was a cure!

[Guest Gimlet]

15 hours ago, Peasgood said:

Aunt seems to have had it. All the symptoms but not tested.

Self isolating on her own at home and got to the stage where she thought she wasn’t going to make it but is getting better now. She called me today so sounds like she is nearly better.

Over 70, so you are not automatically done for as Charles also showed.

Cause for optimism indeed. Prince Charles is by all account a very fit and healthy 71 year old. general health being more important than age certainly makes sense.

[Paul Jenks]

A democracy works by consent. There is no way the British government could hope to enforce the type of lock-down seen in China. 

The current restrictions are only possible to enforce because of a gradual increase in awareness through the population as to the looming potential of the virus to affect each of us individually as well as the wider community. The majority of the population has to see the sense of the restrictions for them to work, however imperfectly they're implemented or adhered to.

 

The management of the fear the population has around their health, the health of their families and friends, their livelihoods, paying the bills and food security is, in my view, one of the significant factors the government has to take into consideration when imposing new regulations. 

Combine this with the potential catastrophic effects on the NHS, the economy, national security, food and fuel supply chains etc, the government is always going to appear to be on the back foot, notwithstanding any oversights and mistakes they make along the way(real or imaginary).

Fortunately, most folk see that the time for political retribution or sniping is not now.

 

Illness aside, most of us will get through this with our physical ability to create economy and will thus be able to contribute to the re-booting or, depending on the scale of the crisis, re-building our economy. 

 

How are people faring with regards to their mental health and well-being? There are some big worries some of us are dealing with.

 

We're using houseparty and zoom to keep in contact with friends, family and work colleagues. Staying connected is, in my view, the most important thing to maintain, not just at this time but ongoing.

 

We use it to continue our work, maintaining contact at points throughout the day with the operations, surveying and administrative departments. It really helps us to acknowledge fears and concerns and keeps us all grounded so we can make discerned decisions without preoccupation. We can effectively bring our team to us if we've encountered a problem with our job or are concerned with some other facet of our lives that inevitably pops into our head.

 

[Mark J]

Why do they tell us that they've ordered testing kits when they haven't?

Government has bought no Covid-19 home testing kits despite Matt Hancock's claim millions had been purchased

WWW.TELEGRAPH.CO.UK

---

Senior minister says handling of coronavirus crisis has been 'embarrassing' amid growing concerns over testing

 

[Peasgood]

Maybe they have ordered them but as they are not ready for distribution while undergoing further testing they have not actually bought them. 

[Mark J]

3 minutes ago, Peasgood said:

Maybe they have ordered them but as they are not ready for distribution while undergoing further testing they have not actually bought them. 

Given that this time last week, they said they'd be available off Amazon and in Boots by Monday gone, I think they're lying to us.