Making the news today....

[rapalaman]

Don’t know about the politics there, but most certainly there will be another huge wave of asylum seekers coming our way no matter what transpires ☹️

[sime42]

12 hours ago, Big J said:

 

Not surprising anyone here, I suspect.

 

Is it show and tell time then? This is mine. I'm not convinced on the accuracy though, a few  of the questions were a bit weird; non of the answers resonated with me at all.

 

 

This is interesting too, but again, not really a surprise. Kamala Harris isn't actually a Red at all.

 

 

 

[Stere]

Taliban-ish like Afghanistan maybe

 

But Syria has  alot more % of urban living "cultured" townies so unsure how allah akbar-ish/sharia it will end up ....

 

Afghanistan was alot more yokel/rural on the whole.

 

Supposedly HTS have claimed they aren't gonna persecute the ethnic minorities and religions but the taliban also said that but now are pretty extreme.

 

The Kurdish bit will want to maintain its independence. Also all the oil wells are in the Kurd region guarded by US troops, HTS will want them back......surely?

 

Very hard to say i reckon so many rival factions and proxy backers from outside countries.

 

Might end up some  form of Somalia style chaos?

 

Threres more rival rebel faction than in the life of Brian who have sometimes being fighting each other. HTS don't like the Turk backed proxy group SNA for example & SNA seem to be fighting the Kurds more than Assad.

[sime42]

1 hour ago, Mick Dempsey said:

The regime in Syria looks likely to fall soon.

Anyone know (or even have an educated guess) what this might bring into the region?

 

No idea, other than more chaos and carnage.

 

I don't know who likes Syria and who doesn't. I think they're friends with Iran, presumably that makes them not friends of Israel. Though if Islamist rebels take over then that's bad for Israel maybe.

 

We need that handy little diagram that I found a while back, the one showing the allegiances between all the different countries and groups in the region.

 

 

[sime42]

 

There we go

 

 

[Mick Dempsey]

I think Assad is/was propped up by Russia and Iran.

[Stere]

And also the french the former colonial rulers until he started gassing people.

 

French put him and his Alawite minority sect in power -  "divide and rule".

 

 

[Mick Dempsey]

2 minutes ago, Stere said:

And also the french the former colonial rulers until he started gassing people.

 

French put him and his Alawite minority sect in power -  "divide and rule".

 

 

Pretty certain the French no longer have any irons in the fire there.

[Stere]

No they stopped being friends   after the chemical weapons gassing &  took his medal off him that they gave him in 2001

 

France to strip Syria's Bashar al-Assad of major award after suspected chemical attack - ABC News

ABCNEWS.GO.COM

---

France has started the process of stripping Syrian president Bashar al-Assad of his Legion of Honor, which is France’s...

 

Since they they were bombing ISIL with the US/NATO and might still have( im unsure?)  military on bases there.

 

Just a moment...

WWW.KURDISTAN24.NET

 

 

https://www.inss.org.il/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/nijkerk.pdf

 

Surprising that they have the largest western military presense if this is true?

 

 

Quote

France now has the largest Western military presence in Syria and is one of the leading
providers of humanitarian aid. With the end of the war in sight, France
also needs to evaluate how it can play a role in Syrian reconstruction.

 

Edited December 7 by Stere

[Steven P]

A couple of educated guesses:

Syria isn't going to go well, sorry, it is going to continue to be bad.

A lot of asylum seekers / refugees from all the other conflicts in the area and a handy route into Turkey are going to see a lot of displaced people fleeing for their lives, probably arn't going to go back south into Iraq / Lebanon... So the EU might to step in to calm things down (politically asylum seekers are 'bad' in Europe politics)... but the potential for Russia and The Ukraine to ramp up again in the spring might make them reluctant to commit resources (how convenient for Russia... a friend of Syria... divide and conquer).

US... that is a bit of a wildcard, Trump doesn't like wars, tricky to save face with (and he doesn't have any business interests there), not sure if Biden will step in this side of Christmas and send troops out there - that never sounds good.

So without big outside influence, the current regime is likely to fall quite quickly and will be sorted out within the country rather than the west meddling.

 

Just my guess, but it is a an unstable region of the world.