Lockdown - has it totally failed?

[Rob D]

11 hours ago, openspaceman said:

No but I suspect those figures are from the  total population less those who have died after being tested positive, a very disingenuous statistic

 

Yep - pretty much like all the statistics then.

 

We have no true idea of the true facts about this illness - that much is clear!

 

What seems an underlying fact is that it is not dangerous to most of the population.

 

So then why are all the population locked down? [I have heard the nonsense reasons for this - they must be nonsense as otherwise why is the lock down being lifted now?? It goes against the original reasons for the lockdown. If the lockdown was to stop the massive surge of cases on the NHS - then in theory it needs to be kept in place until the 'vaccine']

 

 

[TIMON]

Do you honestly believe that? 

I don’t have any particular axe to grind one way or the other.... I simply saw this stat and realised it is a different way of looking at the mortality rate... maybe it isn’t accurate, but I don’t think it’s 20% either. So it’s not going to be that far out.
Like I said in my previous post... worldometers puts the mortality rate in NY state among those infected at 0.28% (scant consolation if it’s your loved ones affected)
I definitely think we should protect the vulnerable and the NHS but not by tanking the National economy.
Far more people are dying through alcohol, drugs and tobacco related illnesses... I don’t see that much of a concerted effort to shut those businesses down (for those reasons, anyway?)
Perspective is a funny thing......

[Rob D]

30 minutes ago, TIMON said:

 

I don’t have any particular axe to grind one way or the other.... I simply saw this stat and realised it is a different way of looking at the mortality rate... maybe it isn’t accurate, but I don’t think it’s 20% either. So it’s not going to be that far out.
Like I said in my previous post... worldometers puts the mortality rate in NY state among those infected at 0.28% (scant consolation if it’s your loved ones affected)
I definitely think we should protect the vulnerable and the NHS but not by tanking the National economy.
Far more people are dying through alcohol, drugs and tobacco related illnesses... I don’t see that much of a concerted effort to shut those businesses down (for those reasons, anyway?)
Perspective is a funny thing......

 

 

Yep but again the worldometer is not proven fact - it is the worldometer and so how much weight do you give it?

 

I think the mortality rate is very very skewed in favour of showing as many deaths as possible [my personal opinion]. There seems to be a feeling of 'if you can mark this death as COVID'.

 

In the USA [again only read online in random places] they get more money for treating COVID patients - so if you were a cash strapped hospital [again in the USA] what are you going to do?

[Woodworks]

52 minutes ago, Rob D said:

 

I don't disbelieve that - it's possible isn't it?

No it's not possible.

 

If the ONS numbers are correct and we have 50000 excess deaths probably due to Covid 19

 

For the table to be right the UK would have a population 177 million and all of us have had the virus.

 

 

As it is the science is pointing to a lower death rate than was first thought which was 3.4%. Nearer the 1% seems most likely at present from what I have read from recent studies.

 

 

 

Say we go down the herd immunity rout which seems to be favoured on here. Maybe 60% of us need to have for that to work?

 

Put that into Arbtalk members which are at 37161 so 60% of them have it equalling 21696. 1% death rate may not be far off as are we are not all that young and the  majority are male which is clearly a bad thing as far as surviving it is concerned. So by the time we reach herd immunity we have 216 dead Arbtalkers.

 

Does that sound like good plan or might it be better to try and stop the spread of virus now in the hope we might have better treatment or a vaccine in the future?

 

Edited May 21, 2020 by Woodworks

[openspaceman]

12 hours ago, difflock said:

Wor daughter told the mother that people need to be fit to survive being put on a ventilator

If you think about it general anaesthetics are avoided for most older people, especially those with cardiovascular problems, my mate died on the operating table at 62 because his heart gave out, so as an induced coma is necessary for a ventilator to be used...

 

I'm confident they have learned a lot about treating this virus from avoiding ventilators to treating "sticky blood" and we don't know how the disease has triggered the most fatality, whether it's blood clots, cytokine storm, induced coma etc.

 

There are plenty of 50 somethings on this forum that think they will not react badly to the disease, and statistically they are likely right but even Boris at 53 was dependant on good ICU care to get through it.

[TIMON]

 
Yep but again the worldometer is not proven fact - it is the worldometer and so how much weight do you give it?
 
I think the mortality rate is very very skewed in favour of showing as many deaths as possible [my personal opinion]. There seems to be a feeling of 'if you can mark this death as COVID'.
 
In the USA [again only read online in random places] they get more money for treating COVID patients - so if you were a cash strapped hospital [again in the USA] what are you going to do?

This is one of the things that grabs my attention.... there seems to be a huge agenda in developing vaccines and medical treatments. ‘Big Pharma’ seems to be in the driving seat where a lot of the decisions are being made. Money talks.
Dr Fauci’s coronavirus research has a very chequered history if you look into it, and it is he that stands to make a fair bit of coin from this pandemic due to him being a major stakeholder.....

[Rob D]

2 minutes ago, Woodworks said:

No it's not possible.

 

Does that sound like good plan or might it be better to try and stop the spread of virus now in the hope we might have better treatment or a vaccine in the future?

 

You can't say it's not possible with certainty - you are not an expert on this.

 

And don't put the responsibility of 216 dead arbtalkers onto me because I have a different opinion to you. I didn't cause this virus. A good example of an extreme statistic to backup a weak argument.

 

 

[Rob D]

7 minutes ago, openspaceman said:

... but even Boris at 53 was dependant on good ICU care to get through it.

So we are told - again could be true and may not be true - we will likely never know.

 

 

[openspaceman]

44 minutes ago, Rob D said:

So then why are all the population locked down? [I have heard the nonsense reasons for this - they must be nonsense as otherwise why is the lock down being lifted now?? It goes against the original reasons for the lockdown. If the lockdown was to stop the massive surge of cases on the NHS - then in theory it needs to be kept in place until the 'vaccine']

Well of course the population isn't very locked down  and there is enough contact out there such that there are still 2000 new cases being found each day. It points to there being some super carriers out there and certain situations, dense housing, large multi occupancy household etc. meaning that containing the disease in these situations is not possible.

 

Everything also points to increased viral load leading to much more severe effect of the disease, so repeated exposure is likely more damaging.. I'm just grateful I don't live in a high rise, commute using public transport or aeroplanes  or have to meet indoors with may people in my normal life, let alone now.

 

The thing is legislation has to be one size fits all so we all suffer.

[Rob D]

4 minutes ago, TIMON said:

 

This is one of the things that grabs my attention.... there seems to be a huge agenda in developing vaccines and medical treatments. ‘Big Pharma’ seems to be in the driving seat where a lot of the decisions are being made. Money talks.
Dr Fauci’s coronavirus research has a very chequered history if you look into it, and it is he that stands to make a fair bit of coin from this pandemic due to him being a major stakeholder.....


 

As said - why are we not focusing on keeping ourselves healthy? Info on better foods for your immune system? Money for older people who perhaps can't afford to eat organic food? Better community and looking after your neighbours? Healthier lifestyle and exercise? Using the lockdown to eat less fast food?

 

Someone give me at least a couple of reasons why these are not being advertised on TV instead of this constant drive that a 'magical vaccine' will be developed that will someone make everything ok again..