Covid-19

[The avantgardener]

2 minutes ago, Matthew Storrs said:

Maybe, he makes some well grounded points, however in the last minute of that, he says if by mid April the worldwide death toll of C19 isn’t at least 50-100k then it backs up what he said in the run up to that. Well death toll is around 42k (?) so in two weeks time mid April it could be on towards double that based on how it’s going now- so that slightly debunks his theory...

So double 42k works out at 84k which is within the number range he mentions, how does this debunk his theory?

[Matthew Storrs]

Sorry if I heard it correct I thought he said if it ISNT between 50-100k by mid April then you’ll know that what he is saying is correct. Well it looks like it certainly will be between 50-100k by mid April... I could have mis heard him to be fair

[Rob D]

Watched the vid and agree with it - or at least it makes sense - that's not to say what he is saying is true... time may tell. Even if the death rates are lower than the flu it will be claimed 'it's because we acted so quickly and robustly' The slogans I see everywhere about 'save lives' 'save the NHS' reminds me of this poster...  I've also noticed that if you offer an alternative viewpoint to the Corona virus then you are quickly talked down - as if somehow you yourself were responsible for the outbreak! You're not allowed to think differently...

[Rob D]

5 minutes ago, Matthew Storrs said:

Sorry if I heard it correct I thought he said if it ISNT between 50-100k by mid April then you’ll know that what he is saying is correct. Well it looks like it certainly will be between 50-100k by mid April... I could have mis heard him to be fair

He does say that ie. if it isn't between 50-100k by mid April - and likely it will be in that bracket - but I don't think it debunks what he is saying.

 

[woodwizzard]

12 minutes ago, Rob D said:

Watched the vid and agree with it - or at least it makes sense - that's not to say what he is saying is true... time may tell. Even if the death rates are lower than the flu it will be claimed 'it's because we acted so quickly and robustly' The slogans I see everywhere about 'save lives' 'save the NHS' reminds me of this poster...  I've also noticed that if you offer an alternative viewpoint to the Corona virus then you are quickly talked down - as if somehow you yourself were responsible for the outbreak! You're not allowed to think differently...

Mass brainwashing slogans to make you feel bad if we don't all do as we are told.

[Matthew Storrs]

1 minute ago, Rob D said:

He does say that ie. if it isn't between 50-100k by mid April - and likely it will be in that bracket - but I don't think it debunks what he is saying.

 

The government are damned if they do damned if they don’t though. They may well be being over the top and media are certainly enjoying whipping everyone in to hysteria, but imagine if gov played it down the same as that chap has just done then it would be egg on their faces to say the least, surely better to take all precautions given how new it all is. 
For what it’s worth I potentially agree with a lot of what that Dr says, but all of us on here are in a comfortable position of being able to speculate as much as we like because we won’t have to face the scrutiny after this is all over.

[eggsarascal]

6 minutes ago, Matthew Storrs said:

it would be egg on their faces to say the least, 

Leave me out of this, Matthew...

[woodwizzard]

http://www.vernoncoleman.com/main.htm

 

[Rob D]

27 minutes ago, Matthew Storrs said:

The government are damned if they do damned if they don’t though. They may well be being over the top and media are certainly enjoying whipping everyone in to hysteria, but imagine if gov played it down the same as that chap has just done then it would be egg on their faces to say the least, surely better to take all precautions given how new it all is. 
For what it’s worth I potentially agree with a lot of what that Dr says, but all of us on here are in a comfortable position of being able to speculate as much as we like because we won’t have to face the scrutiny after this is all over.

Yep I'm not saying it's an easy call to make but we are currently not in a comfortable position at the moment [due to the imposed lock down]. Or maybe speak for yourself - for myself trying to work in a flat with a 3 year old at home 24/7 is not comfortable! Have I taken the additional stress out on my daughter at times over the last 2 weeks - yes I have. Do you think in some families this may run to violence at home - it makes sense that it has and it will. It's a hard line to walk but it reminds me of health and safety - being too heavy handed can and does cause more issues than it solves.

 

 

[Big J]

I watched the video. I agree with a few of the points, but I do think he is largely wrong. 

 

He's underplaying the severity of Covid 19 in the hardest hit countries. 

 

For instance, the typical death rate in Italy is 10.65 deaths per 1000 population. That extrapolates to 1765 deaths per day in the country. When you consider that the covid 19 positive deaths have averaged about 750/day for the last 11 days, it's hardly insginificant. And this is in a country that is in total lockdown.

 

I agree that the care of the elderly is fantastically expensive, but I don't think that there is some elaborate scheme to off the octogenarians with a killer infection. 

 

He talks about the infection as being overblown in it's seriousness if we're not at 50-100k deaths by mid April. Well, we're presently at 42k, and the total dead has increased 7 fold in the last 2 weeks. It may well increase 7 fold again by mid April due to the largely uncontrolled spread in Africa, as well as the clusterfuck that has been the US approach to containing it and limiting it's spread. So quite possibly 300,000 dead by then.

 

In the scheme of things, and compared to many other afflictions, it's not exceptional, but consider the fact that even though we have massively disruptive social distancing and national quarantining, the death rate where the deceased tests positive for Covid 19 is in some countries almost 50% of the normal daily death rate.

 

I think that the national responses have been too severe, in the main. More should be done to protect the elderly and vulnerable, but equally, more effort should have been made to protect the economies of the world as recession and eventual depression will kill many more people than Coronavirus.

 

Tough times, and I'm glad it's not me having to make the big decisions.