Brexit impact

[Duffryn]

I know I am joining this conversation a bit late in the day. But here are my predictions :-

 

1. The EU was screwed prior to our decision to leave, leaving will just speed up the process. The attitude ( post our decision) of the five un elected EU leaders speaks volumes ! They haven't learned and will not learn. The EU is doomed. Getting out early, we will fair better than most

 

2. Post actual exit there will be little impact on trade - import or export. Ultimately, governments do not make trade, businesses do. There are stacks of examples countries outside of the EU that have achieved much better trade results than those inside.

 

3. Scotland will not leave the United Kingdom. They might have voted to remain in the EU but they did not vote to adopt the Euro which would be a prerequisite of any deal to leave and re join the EU. In any case as an independent they would hardly boost the EU coffers, as an independent they would be in a financial mess and hardly an attraction to the EU members.

 

4. Labour will self destruct, the conservatives may as well ( though less risk here) . The next four months will see a step change in the way that UK politics operates. The priority for the next four years is pre and post Brexit management and cross party allegiances will be formed that will then go on to shape our future political structure.

 

5. Populist politics will die, future leaders will learn that the risks of giving the masses the right to make important decisions when the vast majority of those doing so ( myself included) don't have sufficient understanding of the subject they are making the decision on - is a risk not worth taking.

 

Should be an exciting couple of years, but if I am correct then don't rush into

making any financial decisions as a result of Brexit. This will be a long burn and leave us in a better position than most.

Edited June 26, 2016 by Duffryn

[Logsnstuff]

Semantics. You can use the figures to prove either point of view. Of the electorate that voted, a larger proportion voted to remain in the EU. Or alternatively, to support your view, a larger number voted to stay in the UK.

 

As a Unionist, in both senses of the word, it's depressing but not surprising that polls are putting support for Scottish independence over 50% now. There should have been the four country lock. It would have been more democratic.

 

hows it democratic for 5 million scots to overrule 55 million in england, when Scotland voted remain they knew this referendum was coming and it would be a UK vote and thats what they chose

[Mull]

It's not, but it's also not democratic for the English to pull the Scots out either. It's a damned if you do, damned if you don't sort of situation.

 

 

I think his point is that when we voted to stay " better together" that we accepted that we were part of the democratic decisions made while we are " better together".

[skyhuck]

Not so :-

Scots voting for UK: 2,001,926 (55.3% of 3,619,915 turnout)

Scots voting for EU:- 1,801,752 (67.2% of 2,681,179 turnout)

 

If you can't even do simple arithmetic correctly, then I'm disinclined to trust your economic forecasts too...

 

You can't say that!!!! He is proper clever you know, much more cleverer than what we are:001_huh:

[skyhuck]

I know I am joining this conversation a bit late in the day. But here are my predictions :-

 

1. The EU was screwed prior to our decision to leave, leaving will just speed up the process. The attitude ( post our decision) of the five un elected EU leaders speaks volumes ! They haven't learned and will not learn. The EU is doomed. Getting out early, we will fair better than most

 

2. Post actual exit there will be little impact on trade - import or export. Ultimately, governments do not make trade, businesses do. There are stacks of examples countries outside of the EU that have achieved much better trade results than those inside.

 

3. Scotland will not leave the United Kingdom. They might have voted to remain in the EU but they did not vote to adopt the Euro which would be a prerequisite of any deal to leave and re join the EU. In any case as an independent they would hardly boost the EU coffers, as an independent they would be in a financial mess and hardly an attraction to the EU members.

 

4. Labour will self destruct, the conservatives may as well ( though less risk here) . The next four months will see a step change in the way that UK politics operates. The priority for the next four years is pre and post Brexit management and cross party allegiances will be formed that will then go on to shape our future political structure.

 

5. Populist politics will die, future leaders will learn that the risks of giving the masses the right to make important decisions when the vast majority of those doing so ( myself included) don't have sufficient understanding of the subject they are making the decision on - is a risk not worth taking.

 

Should be an exciting couple of years, but if I am correct then don't rush into

making any financial decisions as a result of Brexit. This will be a long burn and leave us in a better position than most.

 

:congrats:

[geoff]

I know I am joining this conversation a bit late in the day. But here are my predictions :-

 

1. The EU was screwed prior to our decision to leave, leaving will just speed up the process. The attitude ( post our decision) of the five un elected EU leaders speaks volumes ! They haven't learned and will not learn. The EU is doomed. Getting out early, we will fair better than most

 

2. Post actual exit there will be little impact on trade - import or export. Ultimately, governments do not make trade, businesses do. There are stacks of examples countries outside of the EU that have achieved much better trade results than those inside.

 

3. Scotland will not leave the United Kingdom. They might have voted to remain in the EU but they did not vote to adopt the Euro which would be a prerequisite of any deal to leave and re join the EU. In any case as an independent they would hardly boost the EU coffers, as an independent they would be in a financial mess and hardly an attraction to the EU members.

 

4. Labour will self destruct, the conservatives may as well ( though less risk here) . The next four months will see a step change in the way that UK politics operates. The priority for the next four years is pre and post Brexit management and cross party allegiances will be formed that will then go on to shape our future political structure.

 

5. Populist politics will die, future leaders will learn that the risks of giving the masses the right to make important decisions when the vast majority of those doing so ( myself included) don't have sufficient understanding of the subject they are making the decision on - is a risk not worth taking.

 

Should be an exciting couple of years, but if I am correct then don't rush into

making any financial decisions as a result of Brexit. This will be a long burn and leave us in a better position than most.

 

A very good calm and wise post imo.

[pycoed]

Semantics. You can use the figures to prove either point of view. Of the electorate that voted, a larger proportion voted to remain in the EU. Or alternatively, to support your view, a larger number voted to stay in the UK.

 

As a Unionist, in both senses of the word, it's depressing but not surprising that polls are putting support for Scottish independence over 50% now. There should have been the four country lock. It would have been more democratic.

 

Semantics? Well it was posted as "fact": a "fact" that is demonstrably wrong.

Now you go quoting polls - which told us that a hung parliament was going to happen last year & that we would vote to remain this year.

[TGB]

The likelihood of imported goods being more expensive, makes me wonder if insurance cover is going to rise. Also, there is likely to be an increase in the amount of gear theft. The latter would seem to be an ongoing escalation and will I feel only get worse.

 

While our exports may be better value to the purchaser. The same product made in the UK and sold here, is still likely to rise in cost, as raw materials of component parts, is also probably going to be more expensive to import.

 

The notion that VAT could be scrapped, is never going to happen. As the collected revenue is a sizeable sum, that no UK government could now afford to turn away. We're not the only country to have VAT.

[Xaltu]

Brexit the impact? People have started to show their true colours on all sides. The reality is as I see it is the media, financial institutions, MPs, the general public are going 'mad' based on an Opinion Poll! If the Government decides to takes actions on that opinion poll then our response should be based on those actions, not on speculation which is what is happening now.

[MWArb]

All I know is the setup I was going to buy my little girl this summer has gone up in price due to it being a us to uk import, the larger impact will only truly start to show once it all settles down (possibly way after the actual trigger and likely the next general election) but as for now my littlen has to wait for her harness which she's a little gutted about as am I.

#treelife #treeissues

Edited June 27, 2016 by MWArb