Covid-19

[Big J]

Just now, The avantgardener said:

And also shouldn’t be exaggerated. The model the UK Government is using to project infection/ death rates has been largely rejected as inflated by Denmark, Norway and Sweden.

I agree. We aren't testing enough, so it therefore looks as though the mortality rate is artificially high and the infection rate low. 

 

The reality is that a great many more people are infected that the stats suggest, but the death toll will increase substantially for at least another 2 weeks in the UK. I reckon it'll top out at 1500-2000 a day and then come down again, but that's just speculation.

[eggsarascal]

4 minutes ago, Big J said:

I agree. We aren't testing enough, so it therefore looks as though the mortality rate is artificially high and the infection rate low. 

 

The reality is that a great many more people are infected that the stats suggest, but the death toll will increase substantially for at least another 2 weeks in the UK. I reckon it'll top out at 1500-2000 a day and then come down again, but that's just speculation.

1500_2000 a day?, that's a massive amount of people.

[The avantgardener]

8 minutes ago, Big J said:

I agree. We aren't testing enough, so it therefore looks as though the mortality rate is artificially high and the infection rate low. 

 

The reality is that a great many more people are infected that the stats suggest, but the death toll will increase substantially for at least another 2 weeks in the UK. I reckon it'll top out at 1500-2000 a day and then come down again, but that's just speculation.

I think you are wrong on these numbers, we will see where we are at in two weeks, or maybe we will both be dead?

[tree-fancier123]

2000 a day - wow 

I'm enjoying my new career as armchair epidemiologist and will take a punt at UK death rate topping out no higher than 1132

[Big J]

Just now, eggsarascal said:

1500_2000 a day?, that's a massive amount of people.

We're the most densely populated country in Europe and were the least able to adhere to advisory social distancing measures until they were mandatory 7 days ago. It'll peak in 14-20 days I think, and given that today was the worst day for deaths by almost 50% (at 381), 1500 plus is sadly not unrealistic.

[Big J]

3 minutes ago, The avantgardener said:

I think you are wrong on these numbers, we will see where we are at in two weeks, or maybe we will both be dead?

 

5 minutes ago, eggsarascal said:

1500_2000 a day?, that's a massive amount of people.

 

3 minutes ago, tree-fancier123 said:

2000 a day - wow 

I'm enjoying my new career as armchair epidemiologist and will take a punt at UK death rate topping out no higher than 1132

 

For context, Spain had the same number of infections 10 days ago and a lower daily and total death rate. They are a much more geographically dispersed population and have implemented a more stringent lockdown too, as well as having 50% more ICU beds than us. 

 

It could be worse. We could be in the States with Donald 'I'm a lying, incompetent fuckwit with not a clue how to manage a kindergarten let alone a country with a pandemic' Trump.

[eggsarascal]

2 minutes ago, Big J said:

We're the most densely populated country in Europe and were the least able to adhere to advisory social distancing measures until they were mandatory 7 days ago. It'll peak in 14-20 days I think, and given that today was the worst day for deaths by almost 50% (at 381), 1500 plus is sadly not unrealistic.

I'm not arguing with you J, I just think they are bizarre figure. Are 1500 people dieting due to Covi-19 at the moment?

[Mesterh]

36 minutes ago, Big J said:

Quintupled.

 

Just seen how much the figures have jumped by!

 

I wonder if the old bloke in the video is self isolating or is out and about helping and shopping for the local oldies?

 

[Big J]

1 minute ago, eggsarascal said:

I'm not arguing with you J, I just think they are bizarre figure. Are 1500 people dieting due to Covi-19 at the moment?

I'm not sure I quite follow. 

 

Not in this country no. The issue is that the once a patient is put onto a ventilator in the ICU, they have a greater than 50% chance of dying, and it takes weeks. So the lag time between peak infection and peak deaths is 2-4 weeks at least. The infection rate in the UK is also artificially low due to inadequate testing and contact tracing. 

[Mesterh]

3 minutes ago, eggsarascal said:

I'm not arguing with you J, I just think they are bizarre figure. Are 1500 people dieting due to Covi-19 at the moment?

Yep, because McDonalds and KFC are shut.