Will a lot of small domestic tree firms go bust?

[Clutchy]

Been messing around with our ads recently and noticed a huge drop off in the last couple of months, so thought I would have a look at search volumes before blaming our marketing company. 

 

We are in a fortunate position where domestic work makes up less than 12% of our turnover, but for those predominantly domestic companies who have rapidly taken on more gangs during the covid tree surgery gold rush period, what will happen now that searches have returned to normality and thus demand has returned to normal levels? We would now have an excess of supply right? Especially given how many new companies started because of long lead times during that period. I am trying to find data on number of new registered companies with our industry SIC codes but looks like we all use different ones, maybe someone can check. 

 

Given we are heading into a recession, are we about to see high levels of insolvency or am I missing something? 

 

 

[kevinjohnsonmbe]

Maybe, new start ups over burdened with debt repayment on capital investment, spiralling interest rates and the impact of inflationary rises to input costs coupled with potential recessionary pressures upon household disposable income - yes, for the reckless consumer of very cheap credit there may be either very hard work and competitive pricing to meet repayments or a one way ticket to the auction….

[GarethM]

Wouldn't that list only be of the VAT listed variety?.

 

Whilst you can gauge any industry by such a metric, if you are starting up wouldn't that be last thing you would do unless you're doing 85k worth of buisness.

[Clutchy]

7 minutes ago, GarethM said:

Wouldn't that list only be of the VAT listed variety?.

 

Whilst you can gauge any industry by such a metric, if you are starting up wouldn't that be last thing you would do unless you're doing 85k worth of buisness.

It should be data pulled from companies house, so they wouldn't need to be VAT registered to show up on it. 

 

Hard/impossible to tell true numbers as we all use different SIC codes for example some say landscaping services, others related to forestry. Its a bit of a mess there is no arb specific one afaik 

 

6-8inch chipper sales might be the easiest metric 

[woody paul]

Old companies should be OK with good customer list and mixed work. 

Had gigaclear bloke stop and ask me about cutting some trees back yesterday, when I told him I couldn't do it till January he turned around and got back in his car. 

A lot of companies will not be registered so no way of  knowing. 

 

Edited October 22, 2022 by woody paul

[Retired Climber]

Are they your 'money' search terms? Fancy posting your neg list too? 

[GarethM]

To be on companies House though your not the vast majority of companies. When it's 1/2 guy companies they wouldn't be on the list.

 

Aspirational maybe, but I wouldn't judge any industry by it. As you can go up the tiers of success and down without going busy.

[Alex Seaview]

Alas the trees might get some respite.

[Retired Climber]

1 minute ago, GarethM said:

To be on companies House though your not the vast majority of companies. When it's 1/2 guy companies they wouldn't be on the list.

 

Aspirational maybe, but I wouldn't judge any industry by it. As you can go up the tiers of success and down without going busy.

All companies, regardless of size, would be on the list. 

[Clutchy]

Just now, GarethM said:

To be on companies House though your not the vast majority of companies. When it's 1/2 guy companies they wouldn't be on the list.

 

Aspirational maybe, but I wouldn't judge any industry by it. As you can go up the tiers of success and down without going busy.

What tree company isnt on companies house? 

 

If there are any 1-2 man companies on here that have not got a registered company, what are you actually doing? 

 

They honestly don't even come into this discussion and I believe they would be the absolute minority of tree surgeons (ignoring subby climbers)