Future Firewood Demand Optimism?

[devon TWiG]

I already have enough wood cut/split/stacked for the next 3 years for my own use , If worldwide energy prices keep rising then surely they will reach an unaffordable point  for most of the world and surely the West (EU and US ) will be the only ones able to buy and the price will surely plateau at what they can / will pay ....which could leave poorer countries in deep trouble !!...

 

[openspaceman]

3 hours ago, sandspider said:

 

Unfortunately, prices for solar panels and batteries have gone up a lot since pre pandemic, and all the decent installers are booked up for months. Still tempting though.

Hope I've got enough wood for this winter anyway.

You are right but we're still getting reasonable quotes for a system for my daughter, for installation after October.

 

Prices of many things are rising mainly because UK's performance has been bad in the last two years and the pound has fallen against the dollar a lot. With inflation biting it's probably better to spend the money now before inflation really bites.

[sandspider]

I'd be interested to know what sort of quotes she's getting and for what size of system, if you wouldn't mind? My understanding is that what was a 10k system before the pandemic is now 15k, or even more. (That's for panels and batteries)

[openspaceman]

1 hour ago, sandspider said:

I'd be interested to know what sort of quotes she's getting and for what size of system, if you wouldn't mind? My understanding is that what was a 10k system before the pandemic is now 15k, or even more. (That's for panels and batteries)

Well I have to say that although we have a quote for £13500 for a 5kW array and 10kWh battery as the survey has still to take place there could still be a price hike.

 

2 years ago I reckoned a 4kW system and 6kWh battery could be had for £8k so yes much more than back then but with a likely 84% grid independence and an annual usage of 5000kWh there is still a saving of £1260 at 30p/kWh and that rises to £1848 at 40p/kWh.

 

In her case it is likely even better as she has an EV to soak up excess solar power.

[sandspider]

Thanks. That doesn't sound too bad, considering. And yes, with prices only going up at the moment payback isn't likely to take too long for those who have the money to hand.

[openspaceman]

49 minutes ago, sandspider said:

with prices only going up at the moment payback isn't likely to take too long for those who have the money to hand.

This is the crux, it is unlikely to be worth doing on borrowed money.

[neiln]

10 hours ago, openspaceman said:

...and again in Jan 23 it seems. 44p/kWh predicted for electricity and 14p for gas. It will have a minimal effect on me as my electricity bill will still be around £200+ standing charges and gas is only used for hot water but at these prices solar PV  and a battery is a no brainer if you have an unshaded southish facing roof.

And don't intend to move for the lifetime of the panels (per let's say 10+ years). As the upfront are still massive.  

[neiln]

Installing a large, or could of, wood stove, voting a chainsaw, PPE, axe, hatchet and maul and getting busy making friends with local tree surgeons will pay back much more quickly.  This winter alone could well cover what I spent, although that was 6-7 years ago and prices are up on stoves, saws and axes too, but yep, I'm glad I've 2-3 years worth of wood in the neck garden.  Even my wife is complaining less that ' all you do is split wood' 🤣

[Billhook]

My solar electric panels cost over 10 k ten years ago and even on the 42p tariff I still do not think it has paid for itself.  However at the same time I went on a course in Wales with Navitron to learn how to fit solar tubes.  I do not know what make they are but they have been fantastic at supplying hot water in the Summer months when the wood burner is given a rest.  I would recommend them over the electric panels for saving money over time.

Here are some similar to mine

Efficient Solar Thermal Collectors (10 - 30 Tubes)

SOLARSUPPLIESUK.CO.UK

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Our Solar Thermal Collectors are high efficiency double wall evacuated tubes measuring 1800x58. 5 Year warranty

 

[openspaceman]

48 minutes ago, neiln said:

And don't intend to move for the lifetime of the panels (per let's say 10+ years). As the upfront are still massive.  

Yes I don't know what the effect on selling a house equipped with solar PV and battery will have on the price.

 

In my case I have been here 43 years and unlikely to move except into a care home and that won't be for long.

37 minutes ago, neiln said:

Installing a large, or could of, wood stove, voting a chainsaw, PPE, axe, hatchet and maul and getting busy making friends with local tree surgeons will pay back much more quickly.  This winter alone could well cover what I spent, although that was 6-7 years ago and prices are up on stoves, saws and axes too, but yep, I'm glad I've 2-3 years worth of wood in the neck garden.  Even my wife is complaining less that ' all you do is split wood' 🤣

 Of course the two are not mutually exclusive and I have both solar panels and I burn wood, as my house is small I only average about 6-7kWh of electricity per day and the shortfall during the winter is only 450kWh. I only wish I could store the excess that I  have in summer to use in winter. In fact doubling my array and increasing battery capacity somewhat would make me self sufficient but  I think I am on the right cost-performance part of the curve as it is.

 

Although my wood is all free it does require a fair amount of labour and if I valued that at £10/hour...

 

I don't want to appear too evangelistic about either just putting my case.

 

@Billhook feels he disagrees about the solar PV but does burn wood, I have easily paid back my investment in solar PV in ten years (except starting now there are no subsidies so it has to stand up by itself)  but didn't have roof space for solar thermal and felt the PV at around 15% conversion of incident sunlight to electricity offered far more utility as I only needed about 60 quids worth of hot water a year and the sun would only provide in the summer months.