Brexit ! what will this mean ? ( lets get a good thread going )

[kevinjohnsonmbe]

3 hours ago, EdwardC said:

No one knows what Brexit will mean. The best discussion I have heard was on the radio a few months ago between two economists, one leave, one remain. You might think they'd be at loggerheads, but they were in broad agreement. Brexit will be bad for the UK for the first ten years. After that depending on what happened with trade deals would determine whether things would get better, by how much, and how quickly. Both agreed that ten years was a reasonable time scale to complete a trade deals.

 

The leave economist was positive that we could do all our trade deals within ten years and things would pick up and in due course we would eventually be better off than if we'd stayed in the EU, but they couldn't say how long it be before we reached that point. The remain economist was sceptical because trade deals often take longer and break down, we have no trade negotiators, and if one trade deal takes ten years completing all the trade deals, with all the countries in the world we intend to deal with, within ten years was an unrealistic proposition. They thought the the economy would suffer for an awfully long time and may never actually recover what it lost making the UK worse off for ever.

 

To say the EU are trying to punish the UK for leaving is ridiculous. Why should the EU bend over backwards to give the UK a good deal, the EU isn't interested in giving the UK a good deal, it's interested in getting the best deal for the EU. It's like buying a new chipper. You don't bend over backwards to pay the dealer what they want, you try and screw them down for every last penny. On the other hand they'll be trying to do the same to you. What the outcome is will depend on who has the stronger negotiating position. If you are just replacing an old chipper which is working fine with a newer model you may find that being able to take some time, walk away, and shop around will get you a better deal. If you are desperate for the chipper and this is the only dealer with one available, your old one broke down, and you need the new one to start that big lucrative job on Monday you'll pay what they are asking.

 

The EU is the biggest single market in the world, the UK, depending on how you measure the economy, somewhere between the 5th and 9th largest economy in the world. A lot of UK exports, 44% in 2015, go to the EU, that's an awfully big chunk of the economy to put in jeopardy. I doubt there's much of that the EU needs to get from the UK, and can't get elsewhere. We don't have much of a manufacturing base, very little by way of natural resources and an economy built on consumer spending and credit which requires imports to feed it. In short we need the stuff the EU makes, but they don't need what we make. Also, many of the larger companies exporting their goods and services are based here to take advantage of the fact the UK is part of the EU. Once that advantage is lost does anyone really think a large global company with its EU base in the UK is going to stay. That's why we are seeing the likes of Dublin, Paris, Frankfurt etc all vying for the financial services sector which is already in the process of relocating.

 

If you think the likes of the USA are going to bend over backwards to do a free trade deal, think again. The US trade policy is 'America First'. If you want to know what this means it means, America First. That's why they imposed a 300% tariff on Bombardier to prevent them competing with Boeing. And China when pressed on why they don't do more trade with the UK said the UK didn't have anything they needed. Not a good position to start negotiating from with either the two biggest economies in the world.

 

If you voted Brexit to stop migration, well the Brexiters have already said it won't. If you voted Brexit so the NHS could get £350 million extra cash a week the Brexiters admitted that was a lie, and the Government recently said that was a Leave Campaign promise, not a Government promise, this despite Government Ministers claiming it would happen, and still claiming that. I don't recall any cogent argument from the Leave Campaign setting out why, or how, we would be better off, just soundbites; our independence day, take back control, £350 million for the NHS, project fear, jam tomorrow. The Remain Campaign got sucked into that and failed to put across their arguments clearly. All in all a very poor campaign with little to inform voters.

 

On the issue of foreign students, those from outside the EU pay the full price, not the 'capped' fees of £9,000 a year. Universities rely on them for a substantial part of their funding and fear this will be lost plunging them into a debt crisis. 

 

If you think Jeremy Corbyn and the 'hard left' are pro-EU, they're not and never have been. Quite the opposite. In part because of, amongst other things, the EU's rules about State support for industry.

 

To conclude, economists on both sides agree that Brexit will be bad for the UK for 10 years, but disagree on for how long.

 

The EU, and and other countries we negotiate a trade deal with will do what's best for them, and them alone. The outcome of trade negotiations depends on who has the strongest hand. On one side the worlds biggest market, and the worlds largest economies, on the other the UK dependent on that big market for 44% of its exports, and with nothing to offer the isolationist biggest economies

 

Finally, how do you measure a post Brexit economy against what would have been an UK/EU economy to see if we are, or are not, better off.

Fairly comprehensive....

 

But missing 1 vital comparison factor to give it balance....

 

What will the state of the EU be in the coming 10 years, 10-20 years?  It ain't looking too chipper at the moment and I'm not sure the forecast is rosy either.  

 

So if we want to make a valid assessment of the UK's potential outside of the EU it should be measured against the current and potential future assessments of EU viability.

 

And whilst the subject seemed to be focussing on the benefits of higher & further education, I wonder if the yoof of the countries highlighted below feel suitably empowered by their access to further education?

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/266228/youth-unemployment-rate-in-eu-countries/

 

 

[Richard 1234]

I think you will be disappointed then.
 
Take the car industry. Currently all EU countries agree on engine regulations, so that manufactures don't have to design and produce individual engines for each country, keeping costs down. This makes sense. However some think now the UK has left it can go about setting its own regulations regarding emissions of engines (get rid of pesky EU health and env standards), and that manufactures will produce specific engines for the UK market (be it Land Rover, BMW, Toyota). This will not happen, the companies like these international standards and are a powerful lobby. The UK market will still be supplied according to what the EU decides. The only difference is the UK now has no say in what those regulations that the UK will adopt should be. The car industry is just an example, same applies for almost all other international industry.
 
When you look at other countries, you would expect the UK will mirror 90-95% of the standards that come from the EU. So technically the rules and laws will be approved in the UK, but what they are will be decided in Brussels without the voice of the UK.

The only things I’m disappointed in so far is that the government hasn’t took a firmer stance in negotiations (it seems).
And that the remainers can’t grow up and accept the will of the majority.
We can’t afford to run our own country properly, so why on earth it’s supposed to be in our interests to prop up Greece and Spain etc is beyond me.

[WesD]

2 hours ago, WesD said:

Do people know why London is considered the best financial trading city in the world?

Anybody?

[the village idiot]

13 minutes ago, WesD said:

Anybody?

It's the Capital city?

[WesD]

Just now, the village idiot said:

It's the Capital city?

What of the world?

 

People have no faith in the UK to do well outside of the EU and a few have mentioned larger companies are making provisions and are readying to move from London to the EU but do people know why London was such a draw in the first place?

[Mick Dempsey]

25 minutes ago, WesD said:

Anybody?

Bueller.....Bueller?

 

Edited November 12, 2017 by Mick Dempsey

[Rich Rule]

39 minutes ago, WesD said:

What of the world?

 

People have no faith in the UK to do well outside of the EU and a few have mentioned larger companies are making provisions and are readying to move from London to the EU but do people know why London was such a draw in the first place?

I would hazard a guess that in part it is due to the Telecommunication and Data infrastructure.  The majority of Transatlantic cable systems land in the UK before spurring onto the rest of Europe.

 

That or the fact the Nathan Rothschild single handedly took control of the London Stock Exchange, Royal Mint, UK Economy, British Empire and the Royal family in one afternoon... give hope to others that they too could accomplish such a feat.  

 

Or because it is the most corrupt place in the world?

 

[josharb87]

It’d be ironic if it was due to its multiculturalism!

[WesD]

8 minutes ago, Rich Rule said:

I would hazard a guess that in part it is due to the Telecommunication and Data infrastructure.  The majority of Transatlantic cable systems land in the UK before spurring onto the rest of Europe.

 

That or the fact the Nathan Rothschild single handedly took control of the London Stock Exchange, Royal Mint, UK Economy, British Empire and the Royal family in one afternoon... give hope to others that they too could accomplish such a feat.  

 

Or because it is the most corrupt place in the world?

 

Bingo and although the rest of the countries have caught up on infrastructure we still lead in terms of latency giving the leading firms .hundreds of seconds advantage over others. Doesn’t sound a lot but it is still an advantage, this was a small draw but made these firms millions/billions. The financial markets will continue whether we are in or out of the EU and a lot of people argue it is Britain’s main source of income, if the big firms leave others will take their place the world will still spin the sun will still rise yes we will encounter turbulence but so will the EU and what no one can know for sure or predict is how long it will be for or who will prosper the most it is all guess work on guess work. 

 

UK plc will have to and continue to invest in its own infrastructure to keep us at the leading edge, do people think once we are out that’s it? Time to give up? I dont, it will only be the beginning after all it is then and only then when we will have a point to prove.

 

One good trait about the British of old is our competitiveness and determination. 

 

The tree game is the same how many times do we see the start up, is their too many, what should I be paid etc etc threads on here, they all boil down to us wanting to be the best, grow build a reputation based on skill and and do the best we can! I really wish we would stop making things hard and start to put heads together on how we can be the best UK plc outside of the EU. 

[Rich Rule]

I used to work to for the Canadian incumbent International telecoms carrier.  They owned a couple of Transatlantic cable systems.  One of them was called Cantat 3.

 

IIRC in 1998 a deep sea trawler dredged up a portion of the cable damaging it and basicially disconnecting Europe from America.  There were back up cable systems and asymetric satellite links providing redundancy but had nowhere near the capacity required.  In those days incumbents sold to other incumbents.  BT was severely effected as was trading on the London Stock Exchange.  The major clients of the UK arm of the company were France Telecom, Deutsche Telecom, Telecom Italia etc.  The German stock exchange took a major hit as the connection was down for quite a few days.

 

i joined that company a month after it happened and our name was mud, even though we had jack shit to do with the outage.  I am sure that and other contributing factors led to the downfall of that company.