Risk of Failure Experiment

[Amelanchier]

I'm interested in the different assessments of risk that people have when looking at the same defect.

 

Take a look at the Oak below. Forget the targets - just ask yourself the following question...

 

Out of 100 trees like this, how many would you expect to see fail due to this defect within an average 12 month period?

 

There's no right answer and I'm not trying to catch anyone out - just interested in the results.

 

Cheers.

[Steve Bullman]

if its specifically oaks, probably 1

[stoxs]

Being a newbie to this sort of assesment my guess could be miles out but as it is an Oak and a good % of the bark is intact then i would guess low around 5% , but also it would only need one tree to fail at the wrong time and you couldn`t risk leaving it in that location.

[Dean Lofthouse]

I'd say the number would be very low around 2 or 3 provided there were a chance of stormy weather.

 

I wouldn't have any problem climbing or rigging from that tree, looks quite solid to me

[silvafox]

I would like to see a weather forecast for the 12 month period in question!

However, if I had to guess....maybe 5?!

[Mr Ed]

0%....

[Highland Forestry]

Now i'm no arboponse, but out of 100 trees like that I would expect to see very little failure, possibly up to 5% as the oaks are good and strong...however it would have to be put under a 12 month monitoring schedule.

But the tree in that picture, surely you would have to recommend remedial work and reduction? It almost looks dangerous IMO.

[old snake]

I would put the % as bein very low,as Dean said i wouldn't mind climbing it or rigging of it.

[Paul Barton]

I am in the 0-10% gang. What a great idea for a thread - I think this will lead to some very interesting discussion.

[Mesterh]

I'm also in the 0-10 thinking that it would be a very very low percentage, its prob been not far off in that state for the last what 10-15 years.

 

Hard to see how the crown is balanced which may affect my views.

 

Although I wouldnt be writing that in a report.