VALID Tree Risk-Benefit Assessment

[Acer ventura]

Hi

 

I posted this message on the UKTC because there seems to be some confusion about VALID that's cropped up on the back of the Arboricultural Association's recently advertised 'What's the Likelihood of Failure' seminars. Hopefully, this will make things clear.

 

I abandoned my long-standing relationship with QTRA last summer. So, I am no longer a driver of QTRA development, or deliver QTRA training.

 

I originally put VALID together as a decision-making tool to help with the Likelihood of Failure part of tree risk assessments in 2015. I presented it at that year’s AA conference, and it was designed to be used in any tree risk assessment system. Since then, VALID has not only developed further as a Likelihood of Failure decision-making tool, it’s now a fully blown tree risk-benefit assessment system. The blueprints of this were revealed at the AA conference in 2016, and the SE AA Seminar in January of this year. More of it was revealed at the “Is it VALID?” downunder tour of New Zealand and Australia in February.

 

I’m setting up VALID as non-profit to deliver training and guidance in tree risk-benefit assessment and management. The website and App should all be in place soon. I plan to start delivering training in the UK at the end of September.

 

To give you an idea of what I’ve been up to, I’ve attached the VALID Tree Risk-Benefit Strategy. This is roughly 100 pages of the NTSG’s ‘Common Sense Risk Management of Trees’ distilled down to a one side of easy to read and understand A4. It’ll be a giveaway position statement template that anyone from a Local Planning Authority, to Mrs Miggins with a tree in her back garden, can adopt and make their own. It’ll give you taste of how VALID will look.

 

VALID - Tree Risk-Benefit Strategy 2017.pdf

 

My PhD at the Centre for Decision Analysis and Risk Management (DARM - the risk experts used by the NTSG) will be researching Likelihood of Failure decision-making. The plan is for this to be a synergistic adventure where the income from VALID will fund the research, the training will provide some research opportunities (it’s already delivered much), and the research will in turn improve VALID.

 

The forthcoming AA seminars that I'm running with Frank Rinn are focused on the Likelihood of Failure part of a tree risk assessment. However, in one of my morning presentations I’ll be revealing the why, what, and the how of VALID Tree Risk-Benefit Assessment in the context of quantitative v qualitative tree risk assessment.

 

Hopefully, that’s ironed everything out.

 

Cheers

 

Acer ventura

Edited June 8, 2017 by Acer ventura
make the same as the UKTC post

[Gary Prentice]

Anyone booked this yet?

 

I'm told places are going pretty quick.

[kevinjohnsonmbe]

Keen, but balancing the time and 4hr round trip proving difficult.

[Gary Prentice]

Shouldn't live in the middle of nowhere then:biggrin:

 

I bought some survey equipment earlier this week so aren't too flush, but David emailed me and I don't think he'll mind me reproducing it here,

 

"one thing this day will give ............ is calibrating your Likelihood of Failure estimates with a large number of other arborists. The Likelihood of Failure Club sessions are really useful for this, so you can see where your opinion sits about likelihood of failure, with the same defect, compared to hopefully 40+ others"

 

Which I think alone would be worth the effort. We all have our ideas so it will be interesting to get the opportunity of where our assessments lay compared to others.

 

I heard David a couple of years back when he was starting to bring VALID out, but was getting ill at the time and can't remember much, but it was interesting.

 

Frank Rinn is also very good, an entertaining speaker like his countryman.

 

Where's your nearest venue?

 

EDIT - 4 hr round trip, that's on your doorstep. I'm going to Askam Bryan and that'll be that and more!

Edited June 9, 2017 by Gary Prentice
Realised Mr J only had a 4 hr drive.

[tree79]

Shouldn't live in the middle of nowhere then:biggrin:

 

I bought some survey equipment earlier this week so aren't too flush, but David emailed me and I don't think he'll mind me reproducing it here,

 

"one thing this day will give ............ is calibrating your Likelihood of Failure estimates with a large number of other arborists. The Likelihood of Failure Club sessions are really useful for this, so you can see where your opinion sits about likelihood of failure, with the same defect, compared to hopefully 40+ others"

 

Which I think alone would be worth the effort. We all have our ideas so it will be interesting to get the opportunity of where our assessments lay compared to others.

 

I heard David a couple of years back when he was starting to bring VALID out, but was getting ill at the time and can't remember much, but it was interesting.

 

Frank Rinn is also very good, an entertaining speaker like his countryman.

 

Where's your nearest venue?

 

EDIT - 4 hr round trip, that's on your doorstep. I'm going to Askam Bryan and that'll be that and more!

 

Thinking of booking the Stafford one, looks like bring a good day.

[kevinjohnsonmbe]

Shouldn't live in the middle of nowhere then:biggrin:

 

I bought some survey equipment earlier this week so aren't too flush, but David emailed me and I don't think he'll mind me reproducing it here,

 

"one thing this day will give ............ is calibrating your Likelihood of Failure estimates with a large number of other arborists. The Likelihood of Failure Club sessions are really useful for this, so you can see where your opinion sits about likelihood of failure, with the same defect, compared to hopefully 40+ others"

 

Which I think alone would be worth the effort. We all have our ideas so it will be interesting to get the opportunity of where our assessments lay compared to others.

 

I heard David a couple of years back when he was starting to bring VALID out, but was getting ill at the time and can't remember much, but it was interesting.

 

Frank Rinn is also very good, an entertaining speaker like his countryman.

 

Where's your nearest venue?

 

EDIT - 4 hr round trip, that's on your doorstep. I'm going to Askam Bryan and that'll be that and more!

 

It would have to be Brizzle or (if tied in with a trip to the in-laws (be a good escape plan for me!)) Staffs.

 

David delivered the QTRA course a couple of years back in Exeter, really enjoyed his delivery style.

 

10 minutes is doorstep! Across the Tamar is foreign!!

 

You doing AA conference Gary??

[Acer ventura]

David emailed me and I don't think he'll mind me reproducing it here

 

Hi Gary

 

No problem. I was happy to clear up the misunderstanding about what VALID is on the UKTC. The AA are planning to email my Likelihood of Failure Club Abstract out as part of the marketing, which may help put some more flesh on the bones of the day.

 

The AA also had a piece in their recent magazine about the tour I did with Paul Muir and Claire Harbinson (Treework Environmental Practice) of New Zealand and Australia, doing something very similar. It should give you a good idea of what the day is about.

 

Arb Magazine Summer 2017 What's the Likelihood of Failure.pdf

 

Cheers

 

Acer ventura

 

 

 

.

Likelihood of Failure Club - Abstract.pdf

Edited June 13, 2017 by David Humphries

[Island Lescure]

Sounds like a nice day out!

[Acer ventura]

For those of you who might be interested, VALID now has a Facebook Page.  The website and dates of going live should be released in October.  Anyone interested in beta testing the App please PM me.

 

https://www.facebook.com/Tree.Risk.Benefit.Assessment/

 

Cheers

 

Acer ventura

 

[Acer ventura]

Woo, hoo!

 

This has been a long time in coming, but finally this in from my tame Maths Professor who's doing the really nerdy stuff that will be doing all the hard work in the background.

 

“…we have “stress tested” the procedure in numerical terms and didn’t find any gross, critical sensitivities…
In short, in my view the mathematical basis of your approach is sufficiently robust and dependable for almost any practical purpose…”

 

VALID's now taxiing along the runway, and the App is about to go into production for training to begin Downunder starting in February, and in the UK from April, 2018.  If you want to know more about how it's going, there's some screen shots of how the App's storyboard is looking on VALID's Facebook Page.

 

Also attached is a summary of what VALID is about.

What is VALID.pdf

Edited November 17, 2017 by Acer ventura
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