Cold spell upcoming?

[renewablejohn]

Well the government are expecting a cold winter or at least they dont want to be embarassed about lack of salt with 90,000 tonnes being imported from Canada as well as our own mines working flat out all year.

[Treewarrior]

Pecker, keep the forecasts coming

[peckerwoo]

Well, Seems all the models are now agreeing on quite a substantial cold period!

Everything East roughly from 5° to 40° longitude and between 60° to 70° latitude is beginning to flow east TO west with an incredible height rise (atlantic influence block in laymens terms) setting in over Greenland.

I`m not too long in the tooth but any old fogy will struggle to match a particular year in late November where patterns are similar to this coming weeks!

furthermore, any milder breakdown possible is appearing to look like one from the days of the 70`s and 80`s where heavy snow preceded rain from the SW often staying as snow in the far northern reaches?

It`s not possible with specific details just yet but Monday and Tuesday could see cold raw light rain and drizzle affecting many areas from the NE but as the week goes by this will start to turn more and more of a wintry flavour with temperatures averaging below both day and night with Air frosts becoming severe under cloud free areas Scottish Western isles etc.

Prepare for a big shock peeps?

[peckerwoo]

amazin cold uppers for late November!

[Big J]

Just want to say thanks peckerwoo for taking the time to post this thread - finding it fascinating!

[peckerwoo]

In all due respects the met office were amongst the first to identify this possible cold period so the post earlier by Bob will be a good marker in all theory so maybe the Met are turning a corner in terms of accuracy?

Will try to pinpoint high areas of expected accumulations which although sounds peculiar for November the air will be straight from North Siberian regions (Yakutia already -20°!) so eventually even the air modified by the relatively warm North sea will be so cold that snow MAY well fall right on the coast and as the difference of temperature between the 2 is wide (-10° uppers to +8 or 9° sea surface temps) then a phenomenon known as "lake effect" snow may occur where very heavy falls occur brought in off moisture laden area, our very own North sea in this case

MTF

[TRADITIONAL LOGGERS]

The weather often seems to be rain and wind before a full moon then cold with snow during a full moon in wintertime. Forecast I heard said could be 6" of fresh snow in some areas on Wednesday/Thursday and Sunday.

[peckerwoo]

The first section of -5° isotherm upper air will spread into NE areas of Scotland late tomorrow and will instantly allow any precipitation to be wintry or snow over higher ground particularly over 600ft but nonetheless coastal regions could see sleet/wet snow.

Pinpointing the troughs (areas of persistant rain/sleet &snow) is difficult right up to the nearest hour any organised moisture falls so check HERE and HERE for up to date satellite imagery!

Looking like the real blast will arrive via NE scotland, again, late Friday where -10° upper values will be moving aloft but this still hinges on the shortwave development I mentioned in earlier posts?

Just another reminder of where the air will be coming from and Agata in Krasnoyarsk, Russia, currently reading at -38°C (or minus 36.4° fahrenheit in old money) is roughly the region where airflow stems from come the weekend!

They are accustomed to such low temps but here???

I trust i`m not waffling on here chaps and chappesses but i assume most of us work outside therefore the atmospheric effect plays a vital part at times?

[Mark J]

You hit the nail on the proverbial head there mate.

[Big J]

Aye, forgot to give you some credit for that one Peckerwoo! Blinking -9.4 celcius last night - we're right down on the coast and it's never this cold usually!