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Cold spell upcoming?


peckerwoo
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Forecast for Tuesday 23rd November to Friday 26th November 2010

 

An increasingly cold scenario is predicted across all parts of the UK next week. At first snowfall will be largely restricted to northern and eastern hills, with overnight frost largely in drier western areas, thus with a relatively small risk of widespread ice problems and normal winter gritting procedures probably sufficient for most areas.

 

During Wednesday and Thursday, sleet and snow showers are expected to become more widespread and heavier, particularly in eastern areas of the UK, where some significant snowfall seems likely. Rain or sleet is perhaps more likely along coasts and in major urban areas at first but overall there is an increasing probability that intensive gritting operations will become necessary in some regions.

 

Some central and western areas may stay largely snow and ice-free but the risk may increase in these areas around Friday.

 

Confidence is high for a change to colder conditions but for the details of snow risk is moderate.

 

 

Forecast for Saturday 27th November to Thursday 2nd December 2010

 

The most likely scenario is that cold conditions will persist over most of the country, with continued risk of snowfall and moderate probability that intensive gritting operations will be needed in some areas. Most at risk are eastern areas of the UK but no region is risk-free. Away from the areas affected by snow, frost will probably be widespread, with need for normal winter gritting operations across most areas.

 

There is a low risk that that milder air may spread in from the Southwest.

 

Confidence is moderate for a continuing cold period but low for the detail of any snowfall.

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Thats an interesting forecast Bob,

Is it from the Highways Agency or something or other???

The "gritting procedures" text suggests some form of Local Council highways source but,,,??

In all due respects beyond the 168hr (7 day) timeframe the probability rate of any DETAILED forecast falls to around 10%, disrespectful of many of todays advancements in satellite and mobile data technology etc. etc.

postnote: As its November the relatively warm seas will modify any cold air advecting west and south so wintry falls would normally be over 800ft initially,,,,MTF :)

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It was rather amusing as we were the only council work force (other than highways) that were out on the road. We actually had to sleep in the trucks on a site one night. We couldnt see anything. Had a full on blizzard we could only just see the indicators on the trucks when we unlocked them and that was about 4 ft away so we waited for an hour and it got worse so we phoned our loved ones and said we would see em i nthe morning. It sounds dodgy, 4 blokes sleeping in a truck together. All i will say, i have slept in more comfy positions. Four 6ft blokes sleeping in a L200 with 2 normal seats and a bench seat in the back.

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bount to be ballocks & go tits up then :laugh1:

 

I 2nd that woodpicker :wink:

I try not to get upbeat over a few charts predicting what now seems possible for very rare conditions for mid-late November but its becoming more and more real that this is just about approaching an "on the cusp" moment for snow and ice?

Need the first phase to occur where the current low centred just NW off N,Ire/Ulster to track North and fill before being absorbed by the High block whilst a spin-off shortwave heads SW into France allowing a certain corridor for the cold air mass to flood over the UK.

Tuesdays the Key day next week!

Going on I know but its more likely than unlikely that a real early blast of winter is nearly here, particularly for those higher up but not exlusively so!

Ive had a tin or 4 so its beebo time :blink:

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