Brexit ! what will this mean ? ( lets get a good thread going )

[Rich Rule]

34 minutes ago, matelot said:

 

 

Honestly, I can't see how freedom of movement is that great a thing for British people...  

 

Really?

 

i honestly can't see how opportunity is a bad thing.  You may not choose to exercise the right to move.  But didn't people die in the past fighting for our rights?

 

This being Armistace day.

 

i thought you were ex military?  

 

Surely that attitude is a big kick in the balls to the 100's of thousands who have fallen for our rights?

[Vespasian]

Universities are a good thing and the more of em the better, and studying abroad should be even better, after all the whole purpose of a university is to broaden the mind..  might want to ditch a few subjects mind..  gender studies seems like a complete waste of time..

 

On the subject of Brexit, letter leaked showing how Doris and Gove are attempting to blackmail May, next up in retaliation is the rebels who have forty names in readiness to break the government.. 

 

Damn this next few months is gonna be good viewing if your asking me.    Nigel Farage, it will be so easy to get a trade deal with Europe.

 

Yeh, looks that way to..  

[matelot]

12 minutes ago, Rich Rule said:

Really?

 

i honestly can't see how opportunity is a bad thing.  You may not choose to exercise the right to move.  

Surely you can see freedom of movement is a double edged sword? Yeah, obviously having a legal right to live and work in the EU is good for Brits. However freedom of movement also means EU migrants can come to the UK to live and work.

 

The building site I work on has a couple of hundred Portugese working on it. They're nice enough people, however they work for rates less than minimum wage. In that context freedom of movement is reducing wages for Brits and making it harder for Brits to get jobs. 

 

I cant speak Portugese so it's not like I can go to Portugal and get a job... Do you speak Portugese? 

 

People aren't stupid, they can see freedom of movement isn't this wonderful thing that politicans say it is.

[Mark Wileman]

You'll always get people undercutting others, just replace your Portugese mates with Mr "I'll do it for the wood".  I see your point Matelot but in the scheme of things if we kicked out every EU citizen we would feel it sorely, and yes you might open up a few more building jobs, but when you get sucked into a cement mixer there will be no nurses to help you when you get to hospital!

[Lucan]

54 minutes ago, josharb87 said:

I speak fluent Swedish  

 

my partners sister studied sociology, there simply isn't course material available in Swedish so it's English material only

 

a criteria of being in the eu is that English is taught as a second language

 

 

again, I just hope the same opportunities are available to future generations after brexit

I agree with what you say.

 

I have just finished my MSc here in Sweden. Having further education available to all not just those from certain backgrounds is vital to combat many of the qualities we see in society today. Furthermore the freedom of movement and work allowed me to quickly find work (with a tree surgeon) to pay the bills as I got settled.

 

The UK gets a good deal out of it. Almost all the Brits I have met have or will return to the UK, with a high quality education (paid by the Swedish gov) which many would not of been able to afford back in the UK. The UK does not reciprocate such generosity.

 

I really hope the next generation of Brits do not loose the same great opportunities as I've had.

 

 

[Vespasian]

EdwardC

 

The damage isn't just economic..  

 

Look at the government, just one institution thats already suffering due to brexit.   and if we left the EU don't imagine there wont be those attempting to get us back in come hell or high water.. 

 

this is gonna destabilize politics for twenty years..or more.

[matelot]

19 minutes ago, wiley said:

You'll always get people undercutting others, just replace your Portugese mates with Mr "I'll do it for the wood".  I see your point Matelot but in the scheme of things if we kicked out every EU citizen we would feel it sorely, and yes you might open up a few more building jobs, but when you get sucked into a cement mixer there will be no nurses to help you when you get to hospital!

Don't get me wrong. Many migrants are decent hardworking people. However I think we'd all agree that many recent EU migrants have nothing to offer the UK and are a drain to the taxpayer.

 

Call me old fashioned, however I'd prefer the British Government to put the needs of British people ahead of migrants. If it was up to me I wouldn't give social housing to migrants when there are Brits needing social housing. 

 

We really need an Australian style points migration system.

[Richard 1234]

No one knows what Brexit will mean. The best discussion I have heard was on the radio a few months ago between two economists, one leave, one remain. You might think they'd be at loggerheads, but they were in broad agreement. Brexit will be bad for the UK for the first ten years. After that depending on what happened with trade deals would determine whether things would get better, by how much, and how quickly. Both agreed that ten years was a reasonable time scale to complete a trade deals.
 
The leave economist was positive that we could do all our trade deals within ten years and things would pick up and in due course we would eventually be better off than if we'd stayed in the EU, but they couldn't say how long it be before we reached that point. The remain economist was sceptical because trade deals often take longer and break down, we have no trade negotiators, and if one trade deal takes ten years completing all the trade deals, with all the countries in the world we intend to deal with, within ten years was an unrealistic proposition. They thought the the economy would suffer for an awfully long time and may never actually recover what it lost making the UK worse off for ever.
 
To say the EU are trying to punish the UK for leaving is ridiculous. Why should the EU bend over backwards to give the UK a good deal, the EU isn't interested in giving the UK a good deal, it's interested in getting the best deal for the EU. It's like buying a new chipper. You don't bend over backwards to pay the dealer what they want, you try and screw them down for every last penny. On the other hand they'll be trying to do the same to you. What the outcome is will depend on who has the stronger negotiating position. If you are just replacing an old chipper which is working fine with a newer model you may find that being able to take some time, walk away, and shop around will get you a better deal. If you are desperate for the chipper and this is the only dealer with one available, your old one broke down, and you need the new one to start that big lucrative job on Monday you'll pay what they are asking.
 
The EU is the biggest single market in the world, the UK, depending on how you measure the economy, somewhere between the 5th and 9th largest economy in the world. A lot of UK exports, 44% in 2015, go to the EU, that's an awfully big chunk of the economy to put in jeopardy. I doubt there's much of that the EU needs to get from the UK, and can't get elsewhere. We don't have much of a manufacturing base, very little by way of natural resources and an economy built on consumer spending and credit which requires imports to feed it. In short we need the stuff the EU makes, but they don't need what we make. Also, many of the larger companies exporting their goods and services are based here to take advantage of the fact the UK is part of the EU. Once that advantage is lost does anyone really think a large global company with its EU base in the UK is going to stay. That's why we are seeing the likes of Dublin, Paris, Frankfurt etc all vying for the financial services sector which is already in the process of relocating.
 
If you think the likes of the USA are going to bend over backwards to do a free trade deal, think again. The US trade policy is 'America First'. If you want to know what this means it means, America First. That's why they imposed a 300% tariff on Bombardier to prevent them competing with Boeing. And China when pressed on why they don't do more trade with the UK said the UK didn't have anything they needed. Not a good position to start negotiating from with either the two biggest economies in the world.
 
If you voted Brexit to stop migration, well the Brexiters have already said it won't. If you voted Brexit so the NHS could get £350 million extra cash a week the Brexiters admitted that was a lie, and the Government recently said that was a Leave Campaign promise, not a Government promise, this despite Government Ministers claiming it would happen, and still claiming that. I don't recall any cogent argument from the Leave Campaign setting out why, or how, we would be better off, just soundbites; our independence day, take back control, £350 million for the NHS, project fear, jam tomorrow. The Remain Campaign got sucked into that and failed to put across their arguments clearly. All in all a very poor campaign with little to inform voters.
 
On the issue of foreign students, those from outside the EU pay the full price, not the 'capped' fees of £9,000 a year. Universities rely on them for a substantial part of their funding and fear this will be lost plunging them into a debt crisis. 
 
If you think Jeremy Corbyn and the 'hard left' are pro-EU, they're not and never have been. Quite the opposite. In part because of, amongst other things, the EU's rules about State support for industry.
 
To conclude, economists on both sides agree that Brexit will be bad for the UK for 10 years, but disagree on for how long.
 
The EU, and and other countries we negotiate a trade deal with will do what's best for them, and them alone. The outcome of trade negotiations depends on who has the strongest hand. On one side the worlds biggest market, and the worlds largest economies, on the other the UK dependent on that big market for 44% of its exports, and with nothing to offer the isolationist biggest economies
 
Finally, how do you measure a post Brexit economy against what would have been an UK/EU economy to see if we are, or are not, better off.

I’d agree with a lot of that. Paragraph 4 onwards im not so sure.
The thing is though lots of people didn’t vote out because of the possible economic problems /benefits it will create.
The so called “little englanders” who want nothing more than to be left alone.
I’m one of those who just wants our laws and rules to be made here not Brussels.

[WesD]

Do people know why London is considered the best financial trading city in the world?

[Lucan]

1 hour ago, Richard 1234 said:

 

I’d agree with a lot of that. Paragraph 4 onwards im not so sure.
The thing is though lots of people didn’t vote out because of the possible economic problems /benefits it will create.
The so called “little englanders” who want nothing more than to be left alone.
I’m one of those who just wants our laws and rules to be made here not Brussels.

 

I think you will be disappointed then.

 

Take the car industry. Currently all EU countries agree on engine regulations, so that manufactures don't have to design and produce individual engines for each country, keeping costs down. This makes sense. However some think now the UK has left it can go about setting its own regulations regarding emissions of engines (get rid of pesky EU health and env standards), and that manufactures will produce specific engines for the UK market (be it Land Rover, BMW, Toyota). This will not happen, the companies like these international standards and are a powerful lobby. The UK market will still be supplied according to what the EU decides. The only difference is the UK now has no say in what those regulations that the UK will adopt should be. The car industry is just an example, same applies for almost all other international industry.

 

When you look at other countries, you would expect the UK will mirror 90-95% of the standards that come from the EU. So technically the rules and laws will be approved in the UK, but what they are will be decided in Brussels without the voice of the UK.