Where is peckerwoo when you need him!

[Paper Rustler]

Talking to someone today who said September and October will be much the same but November will be cold and lots of snow! Could do wonders for log sales. I would be interested to see other peoples thoughts.

[skyhuck]

Weather has really turned here, just hopping theres a few more dry, warm day to come before the end of the month.

[Stubby]

Talking to someone today who said September and October will be much the same but November will be cold and lots of snow! Could do wonders for log sales. I would be interested to see other peoples thoughts.

 

Yea ! where is he ????????

[hedgesparrow]

well it was nice today had some sharp showers but not to ruin day. but snow in november. need to get weatherman on this site to tell all. be a cold winter

if so start getting thermals out.

[kevinjohnsonmbe]

Meant to do it last year but time was against us, doors off the burner last week, bolts seized but drilled & re-tapped now, new glass on order ready to light the bad boy up soon methinks!

[Pumpy]

It's a bit early for a winter forecast, but there are a few pointers hinting at a cold one for the UK.

 

The NCEP CFS model (climate forecast system) has had run after run forecasting significant Winter blocking during 2013/14 (this model is not known for accuracy this far out)

 

The N Atlatic Sea Surface temp pattern in May this yr hints at an increased risk of Northern Blocking highs for winter (this pattern repeats in winter around 70% of the time)

 

The UKMO (Met Office) model is hinting at significant blocking during the Nov/Dec/Jan period with High Pressure to the North of the UK & Low Pressure to the South, a Classic Negative North Atlantic Oscillation Set up.(this model is not known for accuracy this far out, or even near time )

 

Artic Ice melt season: Arctic ice rebounded 3-4 weeks early this yr, with almost a Million sq miles more sea ice than this time in 2012 already. If this is a proxy for Northern Hemisphere "heat content" it's an ominous sign for the comming UK winter IMO.

 

Sun Cycle: the Sun is very quiet, well below forecasts, some researchers say we're heading into another "mini ice age" or "Dalton Minimum".

 

A lot will depend on how the Jet-stream behaves, compared to S.hem jets the Northern counterpart is still relatively weak, but strength seems to be building all the time, coupled with indications for potential blocking highs, it could get pretty cold.

 

So, taking the above into account (and a load of technical climate/weather related stuff I can't be bothered covering) I'd say we're in for a cold snowy winter, with say 60-70% confidence

 

Pumpy

[Stubby]

Ok pumpy . that sounds technical !

[roseyweb]

It's a bit early for a winter forecast, but there are a few pointers hinting at a cold one for the UK.

 

The NCEP CFS model (climate forecast system) has had run after run forecasting significant Winter blocking during 2013/14 (this model is not known for accuracy this far out)

 

The N Atlatic Sea Surface temp pattern in May this yr hints at an increased risk of Northern Blocking highs for winter (this pattern repeats in winter around 70% of the time)

 

The UKMO (Met Office) model is hinting at significant blocking during the Nov/Dec/Jan period with High Pressure to the North of the UK & Low Pressure to the South, a Classic Negative North Atlantic Oscillation Set up.(this model is not known for accuracy this far out, or even near time )

 

Artic Ice melt season: Arctic ice rebounded 3-4 weeks early this yr, with almost a Million sq miles more sea ice than this time in 2012 already. If this is a proxy for Northern Hemisphere "heat content" it's an ominous sign for the comming UK winter IMO.

 

Sun Cycle: the Sun is very quiet, well below forecasts, some researchers say we're heading into another "mini ice age" or "Dalton Minimum".

 

A lot will depend on how the Jet-stream behaves, compared to S.hem jets the Northern counterpart is still relatively weak, but strength seems to be building all the time, coupled with indications for potential blocking highs, it could get pretty cold.

 

So, taking the above into account (and a load of technical climate/weather related stuff I can't be bothered covering) I'd say we're in for a cold snowy winter, with say 60-70% confidence

 

Pumpy

 

That sounds very technical best I bring you some more logs up

[Pumpy]

yeah Rosey, with 50 cube bagged n stacked, and another 25 ton on the ground, I'm covered for a while, still taking in wood for 2018 tho, you can never have too much wood

 

Glad to see you're on the mend matey