Cold Event,,, part 2!

[peckerwoo]

I still have a load of logs to sell so the lower the better!

Well your desires are becoming more and more certain model run after model run!

Intense cold, akin to that infamous November in 09 (-10°C in my urban low lying area here between Sheffield/Rotherham, much colder elsewhere), is a Major threat now and the only risk to lessen this True Winter spell is a failure of the Scandinavian area High pressure ridge to link up "omega block" style across the N Atlantic Iceland to Greenland?

(Firmly closing the door on the Jet Stream and any Atlantic seaboard mild air should an Omega Block occur)

Personally I`m no longer a supporter of extreme cold as my roofs in state of repair and in 09 snowfall accumulated on my western roof side, thawed when the heating came on in the Bay window and froze again in solid chunks of ice expanding under the degraded gutter/tile edge flashing and melted again inside the loft space and ran down inside our bedroom through to the lounge

So, My eyes are firmly on the Ridge to our NE from Monday onwards and wether it becomes static and maintains +1040mb reading or meanders back Eastwards and allows any Zonal (Atlantic) influence in?

Fundamentals:

High Pressure located to our North = Cold, Ice Dry and/or Snow (-AO & -NAO)

Low Pressure located our North = Generally Wet Unsettled Mild & Windy (+AO & +NAO)

I`m off out with the hounds before an isle of jura gill nitecap

[Johnnyboxer]

Just looked at the forecast for NYorks, provided by our Norwegian friends and it looks bang on with yours -5c by day and snow next Thurs/Fri

[Bombadil]

SNOW...Get in!!

 

We normally finish work a few days before Christmas.

Just got to squeeze the last few jobs in now before the holidays start.

Looks like we might have to work this weekend then!

 

Thanks for the tip-off Peckerwoo:congrats:

[Johnnyboxer]

So what's the latest...............

 

Long range for next week, seems to give a cold dip next Weds and that's all - back up to 7 or 8c and mild by this time next week, so seems not be happening now

[Rich2484]

Well I think peckerwoo was spot on last week. It snowed then rained then snowed then rained. Cold all the time. Good stuff.

[peckerwoo]

So what's the latest...............

 

Long range for next week, seems to give a cold dip next Weds and that's all - back up to 7 or 8c and mild by this time next week, so seems not be happening now

Well spotted JB and now looking the likeliest with yet another spanner in the worx!

So the topic title is hereby changed to Cold Event Part 2 Downgrade chapter A lol

Recall back to the previous instances where I quoted "shortwaves" & the last post where something on the lines of "Omega block joining Scandinavian & Icelandic region High pressure`s"

In between this area will be a benign slack area where, if the high pressure is not high enough, very small low pressure areas form known as "Shortwaves", which has thrown just about every model off the recent cold forecast, and as I tried to detail previously "Low" systems anywhere to our North can and do disrupt any East to West air pattern thus bring us under less cold Air?

The initial High that is trying to force it`s Cold air over from NW Russia/Scan is in place but does not have enough depth nor flatter shape to extend it`s mass over the UK?

But again, I would not warrant a full scale Atlantic incursion over us toward the end of next week so easily as some models are showing?

And we will have a few moderately cold days prior to the "Shortwave" allowing a more westerly air pattern come thursday,

So a major cold period thwarted yet again but a reload 50/50 opportunity is not looking very far away but we will have to see of an Atlantic incursion for number of days from Thurs onwards?

Chances of any snowfall are looking more favorable for North Eastern areas Monday moving more focussed over the SE East Anglia Tuesday and these areas are not going to be on the receiving end of anything mounting to much so sorry for raising any "certainties" in terms of Snow but neither are we basking in anything like Mild air?

Winter`s got a few more darts to throw our way over the next 3 month

Edited December 8, 2012 by peckerwoo

[Johnnyboxer]

Well spotted JB and now looking the likeliest with yet another spanner in the worx!

So the topic title is hereby changed to Cold Event Part 2 Downgrade chapter A lol

Recall back to the previous instances where I quoted "shortwaves" & the last post where something on the lines of "Omega block joining Scandinavian & Icelandic region High pressure`s"

In between this area will be a benign slack area where, if the high pressure is not high enough, very small low pressure areas form known as "Shortwaves", which has thrown just about every model off the recent cold forecast, and as I tried to detail previously "Low" systems anywhere to our North can and do disrupt any East to West air pattern thus bring us under less cold Air?

The initial High that is trying to force it`s Cold air over from NW Russia/Scan is in place but does not have enough depth nor flatter shape to extend it`s mass over the UK?

But again, I would not warrant a full scale Atlantic incursion over us toward the end of next week so easily as some models are showing?

And we will have a few moderately cold days prior to the "Shortwave" allowing a more westerly air pattern come thursday,

So a major cold period thwarted yet again but a reload 50/50 opportunity is not looking very far away but we will have to see of an Atlantic incursion for number of days from Thurs onwards?

Chances of any snowfall are looking more favorable for North Eastern areas Monday moving more focussed over the SE East Anglia Tuesday and these areas are not going to be on the receiving end of anything mounting to much so sorry for raising any "certainties" in terms of Snow but neither are we basking in anything like Mild air?

Winter`s got a few more darts to throw our way over the next 3 month

 

Thanks for that, I get the gist of it and have been following for the last few days

 

What I really want is some more of this like Dec 2010 and -16c at noon in NYorks and it got down to -23c one night

 

Beautiful crisp clear days, very little moisture and like being in a freezer

 

Hope we get some in 2013

[TimberCutterDartmoor]

Thanks for that, I get the gist of it and have been following for the last few days

 

What I really want is some more of this like Dec 2010 and -16c at noon in NYorks and it got down to -23c one night

 

Beautiful crisp clear days, very little moisture and like being in a freezer

 

Hope we get some in 2013

 

Those pics are LUSH!

[blades]

We had a very stormy night here in Aberdeenshire.... Quite mild at 2 deg but very windy with driving hail and sleet all night.... Overall horrible!!

[NI Tree]

the wind woke me up last night and it was not help by a helicopter 2am fly very low must have been going to the Aberdeen Royal Infirmary so hope all are ok.