This winters weather?

[Old Mill Tree Care]

This winter there will be a major heat wave, train tracks will buckle and there will be intermittent snow flurries.

 

That's not a prediction just a wild stab in the dark. Isn't that how they predict the weather anyway!

[WeeDee]

As with many predictions, the accuracy of them decreases as time increases.

The chances of predicting today's weather is quite good - tomorrow, not as high - and so on.

In the UK, the weather has a four day 'memory', i.e. a prediction beyond four days from now has about a 50% chance of being correct - that's the same as tossing a coin!

I wonder if the people who are currently predicting this winter's weather are the same boffins who told me about the heat wave I'm NOT in at the moment.

 

[peckerwoo]

At last, a topic connected to my interests and minimal skills lol

I`m collating a lot of data but my "thoughts" are for another harsh winter based on a number of measurements and patterns from the Ocean, Atmosphere, Arctic and even Astronomy so stay tuned and see whats in the offing

Already had temps in the low 40`s a couple of nights ago and the 850hpa Isotherms over Greenland have been alternating between 10C and -(minus)20C repeatedly over the last runs and some vegetation is sending the signal up to die off (not through lack of moisture) and all these pointers are a very early indication?

I`m convinced also that we are approaching or already into a solar minima period where the distance between the Sun and the Earth is longer than normal recent periods.

Try observing night time lows now as it can be a good measure of the troposphere and if lows around the benchmark 40F or 4-5C then ground frosts can be possible even in September but of course areas around the sea and in Urban areas vary wildly with High altitude rural places.

time for tea, more later

[TimberCutterDartmoor]

At last, a topic connected to my interests and minimal skills lol

I`m collating a lot of data but my "thoughts" are for another harsh winter based on a number of measurements and patterns from the Ocean, Atmosphere, Arctic and even Astronomy so stay tuned and see whats in the offing

Already had temps in the low 40`s a couple of nights ago and the 850hpa Isotherms over Greenland have been alternating between 10C and -(minus)20C repeatedly over the last runs and some vegetation is sending the signal up to die off (not through lack of moisture) and all these pointers are a very early indication?

I`m convinced also that we are approaching or already into a solar minima period where the distance between the Sun and the Earth is longer than normal recent periods.

Try observing night time lows now as it can be a good measure of the troposphere and if lows around the benchmark 40F or 4-5C then ground frosts can be possible even in September but of course areas around the sea and in Urban areas vary wildly with High altitude rural places.

time for tea, more later

 

Are you a meterologist ?

[David Goss]

I heard it was going to be a harsh winter as well but i will believe it when i see it. To me a week or 2 of heavy snow doesnt really constitute a "harsh winter" as the last couple of winters have been like. Bring on the 2 or 3 MONTHS of heavy snow fall and i would be more likely to agree on the harsh winter idea but until then i will be happy to dust off the snowboard for as much fun as i can get

[Old Mill Tree Care]

Now for another bit of minor boffinery and I'm not making this up.

 

1. The Met Office is correct 60% of the time.

 

2. Statistically, the chance of tomorrows weather being the same as today is 50%.

 

3. This means the government funds the Met Office at the cost of ££squillion a year for 10% accuracy!

 

Flippin Eck!

[gensetsteve]

At last, a topic connected to my interests and minimal skills lol

I`m collating a lot of data but my "thoughts" are for another harsh winter based on a number of measurements and patterns from the Ocean, Atmosphere, Arctic and even Astronomy so stay tuned and see whats in the offing

Already had temps in the low 40`s a couple of nights ago and the 850hpa Isotherms over Greenland have been alternating between 10C and -(minus)20C repeatedly over the last runs and some vegetation is sending the signal up to die off (not through lack of moisture) and all these pointers are a very early indication?

I`m convinced also that we are approaching or already into a solar minima period where the distance between the Sun and the Earth is longer than normal recent periods.

Try observing night time lows now as it can be a good measure of the troposphere and if lows around the benchmark 40F or 4-5C then ground frosts can be possible even in September but of course areas around the sea and in Urban areas vary wildly with High altitude rural places.

time for tea, more later

 

 

 

I remember your post from this time last year and you were spot on almost to the week. I would be interested on your observations as we go on.

[Billy]

tell us more peckerwoo...i'm currently deciding weather or not to keep the 4x4...its all on you, I was gonna look up some long range forcasts but i trust a ofrum meber more