Accident Risk Thoughts

[Haironyourchest]

So I was thinking about my experiences in the trades and maintenance over the years, risks I've taken and close shaves. Came up with a little graphic to analise the likelihood of an accident happening. Very amateurish stuff, I grant - but here it is anyway.

 

                                                                              Experience

                                                                                   /      \     

                                                                               /              \  

                                                                           /                      \

                                                                  Time  ---   ---   ---  Equipment

 

This applies to any practical trade, but we'll play with arb...

 

If a worker, a one-man-band, undertakes a job, there is a risk of accident. The risk is a percentage chance. The job is dismantling a tree. If the worker has no experience, no time (ie. a deadline, working to beat the weather, daylight etc) and minimal equipment (ladder, blunt handsaw) then the percentage chance of accident would be high. Lets say 99% The guy will feature on Youtube.

 

But - if the worker has one of the corners of the triangle, the % chance goes down. But it will still be unacceptably high, maybe 33% 

 

Experience - but no time or equipment. An experienced, competent guy could do it, even with a ladder and rusty handsaw, and working under pressure. At gunpoint, let's say (hypothetically). Yes, he could do it, but it would be crazy proposition.

 

Time - an amateur with aforementioned crappy equipment and no training could do it, given time. If he had unlimited time, only worked on dry calm days, plenty of rest breaks to walk around the tree and think and plan his cuts and ladder position...yes, it coulf be done...but still a crazy proposition.

 

Equipment - the homeowner, no experience, and no time, hires a massively overspecced MEWP, buys a pro saw, loads of brand new chains (because he doesn't know about filing) and all the PPE including the jacket. And does the job before nightfall. Yes, could happen, still a crazy proposition.

 

Ok, still crazy, but accident chance is down to 33% in these three scenarios. So lets say the worker has two points of the tripod.

 

Experience + Time (but no suitable equipment) - in this scenario we have a resourceful pro with loads of time to plan and carry out the work. He could compensate for the lack of equipment by using his other two tripod points to make his own harness out of ropes, and other clever tricks. Press into service equipment from other trades and modify it to do the job. Work with extreme caution and only under ideal weather conditions...Not the ideal situation, but doable. The accident chance goes down two 3%

 

Time + Equipment (but no Experience) - so the homeowner with all the gear again - big MEWP etc. And unlimited time. Again, doable, 3%.

 

Equipment + Experience (but limited Time) - This is where most of the pro Arbtalker's find themselves on a regular basis, I would think. No further explanation needed.

 

Ok...So if we have all three points of the triangle, we're golden. Safe as can be. In reality though, it would be rare for any job event to have all three in high measure. Obviously, there are scales of Experience, Time and Equipment, so its more complex than my outline. My point being, that each triangle point can be increased, and if one is lacking, it should be increased. The three should be enriched equally and in balance. Its better to have all three levelled up to 2 then to have two levelled up to 3. On the other hand, having strong suits in two corners can kind of compensate for weakness in the third corner.

 

In my final analysis, I propose that Time is the most crucial corner. With Time, the other two corners can be levelled up. Time to practice in a safe way to gain experience, study and research etc. Time to acquire gear cheaply by shopping for bargains, swaps, e-bay whatever.

 

Looking forward to hearing your thoughts

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[sime42]

I like this theory. I think it really makes sense. I'm not feeling clever enough at the moment to analyse the numbers your proposing but I completely understand the basic principle of you idea. Nice.

[Stephen Blair]

Why is equipment in your triangle? I never read anymore !

[tree-fancier123]

1 hour ago, Stephen Blair said:

Why is equipment in your triangle? I never read anymore !

agree - to the OP - check the recent thread in the climbing section - Dan got a sore one, bloke went through his tendon with a Silky saw - if he'd had better equipment it wouldn't have happened?

[skyhuck]

5 hours ago, tree-fancier123 said:

agree - to the OP - check the recent thread in the climbing section - Dan got a sore one, bloke went through his tendon with a Silky saw - if he'd had better equipment it wouldn't have happened?

Its a poor workman that blames his tools.

[Haironyourchest]

The % chance numbers are just pulled out of somewhere...not to be taken seriously, just broad illustration. The guy cut his tendon with a silky? I dont know, depends which tendon he cut I suppose, if he had better gloves or pants maybe the equipment would have spared him the injury, I dunno. Or lets say, maybe the reason he cut himself was because he was inappropriately positioned - so if he had better or more positioning equipment....Or more Experience, and more Time....thats why we should have all three corners of the triangle...

[Haironyourchest]

Ok I watched the Climbing Arborist video. Ouch. Partially severed tendon, top of offside hand. Very common place for people to cut themselves, or whack with hammers etc. Glove with kevlar pad might have helped. But then, who climbs in "proper" gloves???