winter 2011/12

[miker]

so what is this winter going to be like?have heard various accounts, anybody in the know? anybody claiming to be michael fish need not apply!! lol

[Old Mill Tree Care]

Nobody is in the know for an accurate prediction more than five days ahead.

 

You can be sure of one thing though, it will be cold and it will be warm on various different dates.

 

On a serious note, the Met Office spend £millions on weather prediction every year and are accurate 60% of the time.

Statistical history shows that the weather has a 50% chance of being the same tomorrow as it is today.

 

Therefore the Met Offices £££ account for 10% accuracy:thumbdown:

[Treemon]

Autumn Snow Forecasts - A Clarification

Following a lot of stories in the media this week, we felt it would be useful to clarify the situation with regard to snow this October and November.

 

At this point in time the Netweather long range forecast (which was updated earlier this week) is pointing toward temperatures in October being close to or perhaps slightly below average, with November currently forecast to be cooler than average.

 

Typically October will bring some snow to the hills and mountains of northern Britain but rarely does it bring any low level or widespread snowfall, with the forecast being for temperatures to be close to average, at this stage there is no reason to suggest that anything out of the ordinary is likely, and any forecasts of widespread snow during October have not been made by Netweather.

 

Into November, snowfall is less rare and recent years have shown that even lower levels can see snow - particularly later in the month. With the current forecast showing the potential for temperatures to be below normal, this could indicate the increased risk of more widespread snow - but at this range there is no way to accurately predict whether this may be the case and should it occur, when it may happen.

 

Netweather's long range forecasts are updated once a month and look purely at climatic features - such as whether or not a month is likely to be warmer or colder than average or whether it is likely to be wetter or drier than average. From this it's possible to derive some conclusions as to whether a particular weather type (such as snow) is more or less likely but it's only at much shorter range that specific day to day conditions can be forecast with confidence

[skyhuck]

Nobody is in the know for an accurate prediction more than five days ahead.

 

You can be sure of one thing though, it will be cold and it will be warm on various different dates.

 

On a serious note, the Met Office spend £millions on weather prediction every year and are accurate 60% of the time.

Statistical history shows that the weather has a 50% chance of being the same tomorrow as it is today.

 

Therefore the Met Offices £££ account for 10% accuracy:thumbdown:

 

Where did you get these figures from??

 

I heard that the chance of tomorrow being the same as today is 33.3% and the Met office are right about the same % of the time.

 

IMO the forecasting is rubbish, on Thursday we were told it was going to be cold on Saturday, by Friday they changed their minds and Saturday was now going to be one of the hottest days ever!!! (for the time of year)

 

I get sick of them saying it will be dry, but it throws it down and vise versa.

 

I would not mind if they were a little more humble and said things like "we think" or "it may", but they don't, they say "it will" and "its going to be".

Edited October 2, 2011 by skyhuck

[Tom D]

I find that the BBC forecast is quite good IF you watch it with the sound off.

 

Basically what the forecaster is saying is the forecast for south east england the graphics are usually much more accurate, i'd say 80%.

 

So for the last few days they have been all smiles and happily telling us how hot it is despite the fact that it has been cool, cloudy and wet here.

 

I also find it annoying when they spend the first half of the forecast telling us what the weather has been doing!! We know!!

 

If they dispensed with that they would have more time to give a more balanced nationwide forecast.

[peckerwoo]

Iv`e been on a sabatical for the last 2 months solely following Hurricane season so had zero impetus on our upcoming autumn and winter season.

Treemon`s info regarding views from Netweather are very reputable but as always the human angle on predicting long term conditions are pure guesswork but accuracy improves nearer to current time.

I`m guessing the hint of a cooler than average November is based on a symptom of the North Atlantic Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation (NAO & AO)

projections going negative (currently slightly positive) which simply translates to Northerly and Easterly air incursions which is widely known to be

of the colder side as opposed to Westerly and Southerly air masses (from a positive NAO & AO) which would be milder.

There are many other "teleconnections" though that I mentioned in the posts last November 2010 before the extremely uncommon cold blast when a vast

majority of models and meteorological observers hit on the event that left us shivering for a sustained period and one was a very important phenomenon

known as PDO or Pacific Decadal Oscillation that can drive El Nino and La Nina for their 18 month or less periods but in itself (PDO) can last for

20-30 years in the same phase!

Now for a second lets think back and see if theirs any recollection of the winters of 78, 79,80 & 81 in comparence to our last 2 winters of 2009 & 2010??? >

,,,,just under a 30 year gap which "MIGHT" be a perfect indicator that a large scale period has occurred and we are now well into the Hiatus?

Worth considering also how the global warming charts also have appeared to have flatlined?

Solar minima has also been noted along with very low sunspot activity?

Theirs simply way too much to take on board and its that fluid dynamics theory that is linked in some form and vulnerability to "chaos theory"?

On a glance the hurricane season is turning out to be a very strange one in that frequent perfect African waves have organised tropical depressions out in the central Atlantic but have never really shaped up to form Major `canes, (apart from the odd one or two like Ophelia that was ravaged by high level

wind shear but once free she briefly touched on a cat4 `cane despite SST`s of well under 25°C) and obvious Jet patterns digging way south of their usual

summer paths are not the sole contributor to stemming the Hurricanes nor were the dry air sectors so theirs an awful lot still to be learnt but one thing

is certain for October and that is NOWHERE under 3000ft in the UK will see snowfall so away with that Daily Express waffle

I`m concerned at this years rainfall totals, which is way below the average for me here in S Yorks, and as things tend to have a habit of levelling up

then I`m quite confident that we will sooner or later see Zonal atlantic Lows affect us one after the other so I`m speculative over that NAO & AO forecast

and see Winter coming in later this year over last with a Bitter early January after a wet windy and mild December?

Apols for the missing data and such but i`ll be on it for closer therefore more accurate statements soon

Be a wild n cool day tomoz but dont rule out anymore very pleasant days left in October just yet