Big J

The difference with the Scandinavian second home market is that they are mainly just cabins by lakes. They aren't buying all the houses in the villages and scenic towns. That's the issue down here. And they also permit far more new building, which is more affordable than here. Our restrictive planning laws mean that getting permission to build your own home is difficult and extremely expensive.

I disagree. There is far more pressure on the housing market from the dissolution of the traditional family unit and the Brit's obsession with property investment. And in the south west, lots and lots of second homes.

Haha 🤣 With the exception of the monstrous export tariff on forwarders, I've not moaned about Brexit for ages. The whole market is just completely unaffordable now though. As an example: The average salary in Devon is £27.5k. Assume a typical family on an average wage with one parent full time, one parent 50% pro rata. That's a gross household income before tax of £41,250. The qualifies them for a maximum mortgage of 4.5 times their combined income (as stipulated by the FCA - 5.5 times is sometimes awarded but only to high earning first time buyers earning in excess of £40k), so £185k. So assuming they've got a 10% deposit and they've got a mortgage for the rest, that gives them a housing budget of £205k. This is the closest house I could find to £205k in Cullompton (which isn't a great area to be honest) - it's £230k, is in the middle of a housing estate, has almost no garden, isn't even 75 square metres and it's £25k overbudget. This house isn't a home. It's a rabbit hutch. It accommodates you but doesn't allow you to live. Check out this 3 bedroom semi-detached house for sale on Rightmove WWW.RIGHTMOVE.CO.UK 3 bedroom semi-detached house for sale in Longwool Run, Cullompton, EX15 for £230,000. Marketed by Purplebricks, covering Exeter Assuming they've managed to find the extra £3k deposit and persuade the bank to lend them an additional £21k, they've then got a mortgage payment of £976/month at 2.95% (which is amongst the best 5 year fixed term rates I could see - I'd be looking to tie my mortgage rate up for as long as possible at the moment). In 5 years time, I'd be very interested and concerned to see where the base rate is. Before the 2008 crash it was over 5%. That's probably a worst case scenario, but that might push the mortgage up to 7.5%. And then it's £1530/month. Assume a middle position (most likely scenario, I feel) at 2.5% base rate. Then, at a mortgage rate of about 5.25%, the monthly payment is £1240. And that's on a combined household income after tax of (not including tax credits or child benefits) of £34k. Current interest rate: 34% of total household income Worst case: 54% Middling case: 44% In summary, the accommodation that the average family on an average wage is entirely inadequate to actually accommodate them, and only just affordable at our presently (historically) low interest rates. If those rates rise, the property becomes unaffordable and they default, which crashes the market. It needs to crash to be honest. The prices attained don't reflect the construction cost - not even close.

There are no guarantees obviously but almost anything is better than here.

I'm happy for you that you feel that way. It's not the way that I feel and I feel that a future here for me and my family is a bleak prospect, whether that be in cultural, economic, educational, social or health terms.

I agree, good decent people, going above and beyond. Except that they shouldn't have to. Have you ever been to another European country that litters like we do? I scarcely saw a single bit of litter in Sweden earlier in the month. Swimming spots where 500-1000 people were using them on a daily basis and you'd not have filled a carrier bag with litter in a week of litter picking there. And then the Falls of Falloch in Scotland get left like this on a daily basis: Don't get me wrong, the UK has a lot of wonderful people. Some of the best people you'd ever meet. But they are unfortunately somewhat outnumbered by people that just don't give a shit.

Recognising the negative attributes of a country doesn't make me a negative person. Anyone who thinks that this country is on it's way to bigger and better things is deluded. The UK is an overcrowded, overendebted, massively unequal, xenophobic shadow of it's former self. I'm active on a few wild swimming groups, one in Scotland, one here in Devon. A really common theme (especially in Scotland) is huge numbers of people coming to these beauty spots and absolutely trashing them. Leaving broken bottles, disposable barbecues, used nappies, human excrement, general waste in stunning natural location to the scale that some of the swimmers from these groups are routinely returning with big bags of litter on every single visit. Does that sound like we have the kind of people in this country that will improve our general situation? There is a total lack of respect in the country from a significant proportion of the population. That lack of respect extends to all walks of life. I feel extremely relieved to be leaving, but sad that it's only by accident of birth that it's still a simple option for me.

It doesn't make you right. The shitshow that is the state of the economy emerging from the covid pandemic would tend to agree with me. We have the prospect of banana republic levels of inflation at the moment and the housing market is poised to burst. Can you honestly see the Bank of England holding the present interest rates if inflation is 5%? Once the base rate goes up, the UK house of cards property market crashes. Given that the housing/property market (and speculation on it) is the basis of our entire economy, we're primed for a major hit.

No. I disagree. We're going to see a very sharp increase in inflation, which is a) largely negative and b) mostly as a result of Brexit. Free movement is an almost entirely positive thing. Previously we had the automatic right to live and work in 28 countries. We now have that right in 1. It's the most massive contraction of personal liberty I can think any country has inflicted upon itself.

It is market driven though. Customers demand cheaper products, companies drive down cost. We can't blame European workers for the fact that our companies here in the UK have historically been able to pay lower wages. A higher living wage is certainly a good thing, but this skills shortage and the massive inflation we're suffering at the moment cannot be seen as a positive effect of Brexit. Quite the opposite.

Wages certainly needed to increase, but it won't be long until you're in a Norway type situation with a pint costing £12. It wasn't just the ability to pay less that attracted employers to foreign labour, it's the fact that in general they work better and harder. There are a lot of jobs that Brits just can't be arsed to do anymore. Fruit picking, meat processing, catering and hospitality, even care work.

It's been supply and demand. British employers unwilling to invest in training or wages, it's no wonder the void is filled by cheaper foreign workers. It's coming back to bite them in the ass now though. Catering jobs are being advertised with around 25% higher salaries than 2 years ago. It'll all contribute to the already skyrocketing inflation rate.

Knowledge is there to be mined. I've a list as long as my arm of people that have helped me and it's my duty to pass on whatever knowledge might be useful to other people

I like to think that it's the quality of the independent consultant consulted through the ordering process......the guy that had the first Trakmet machine in the UK and has been to the factory 😎 🤣

It goes a teenie weenie way towards making up for the money I lost importing from Scandinavia after 2016 on the crappy exchange rate

Well I've bought an XC70 today, so I'm on my way

Well the driver who left the sawmill to take that job did very well then. This was information from the company's haulage manager.

Less a joke than a statement of truth

I know what almost all of my work is between now and the end of the year. Most of it is fairly close to home and I'll be selling the van in 11 months anyway. A couple of old Volvo XC70 estates will set me back £3-4k but I've got potentially £21k sat in the Touareg and Berlingo. It's mad how the market has fluctuated so much, but the parts shortages don't seem to be showing any signs of improving. It's mainly microchips, I'm told.

1 in 1 isn't drivable. This is 1 in 1.45 with a purpose build machine and me (experienced operator) driving it. This is very unpleasant and you get some slippage, even on dry ground and certainly if you've got much of a load on it. If you've got 20 acres, it's commercially viable in all likelihood. I'd just get a commercial forestry contractor to come in and quote for it. They'll have the experience, machinery and manpower to do the work safely and you might even make some money out of it. 1 in 1 slopes are not the kind of place I'd even want to work, and I do this for a living.

It's settled. I'll get it properly valeted next week (for the first time ever), take lots of nice photos and advertise it for a slightly silly price. It's a one off spec, and ideally suited for someone who wants a fast, comfortable runabout with the ability to go off road a bit.

I disagree, for the most part. The problem has always been there, but has been masked by having access to a European labour force. The problem is that we don't have the staff in the UK. Brexit has exposed this.

They just can't find the quality of staff, and the exodus has been rapid. Previously, drivers have been on the £12-13/hr mark, and suddenly they are getting hoovered up by the supermarkets paying £20. Additionally, training forestry lorry drivers isn't a quick task. They have to reach a fairly decent level of competency before letting them loose in the woods with a timber crane. I don't think that this country really has labour force with the work ethic for 44t haulage. We have terrible, overcrowded roads and low wages. Why would anyone do it? I did look into HGV driving in Sweden out of curiosity and their salary is much higher for experienced drivers, as well as the job being far easier for most of the year.

The driver shortage is starting to affect us now too. The main sawmill we supply in Wales is contracting it's operational radius for collecting timber to just Wales and the borders due to having 6 lorries parked up. Not good. Inflation is about to explode in the UK I feel. With shortages of everything (materials and certain staff) and billions of excess currency in circulation, I can see 5% inflation happening within 12 months.

Oooh, two conflicting bits of advice - which one to go with?? 😄