Likelihood of Failure Experiment 2

[Johny Walker]

as its oak it could be there for years to come, its been in that state for a least 5 yrs ,you may be asking the same question in 5,yrs ?

[Mesterh]

I voted for the 26-50 I think without looking back.

 

Looks like it hasnt been that way for very long to me looking at the way it is touching the undergrowth and the young syc.

 

I would park my car under the first experiment oak thread but not this one

[Amelanchier]

I would park my car under the first experiment oak thread but not this one

 

I like that - the "would you park your car under it" test.

[Amelanchier]

Bump! C'mon I need at least 50 voters!

[cerneARB]

i voted 26-50. the tension created on the upper/ outer most part of the crack stops it from spreading any further (reading mattechks book hazardous trees)).In saying that there is a lot of end weight on the branch end...so bit to much wind and good bye branch.

 

if the ends not to heavy i think it would last longer.But the cracks slowly open as time goes by and will eventually fail.

[Tully]

I reckon 2 - 5 might fail in 12 months.

Over time more would fail but in a year the figure would be low IMO.

Edited February 19, 2009 by Tully

[Tully]

I like that - the "would you park your car under it" test.

 

What about the "would you anchor off it" test......

[Bundle 2]

<1/100-1/100 ( no partial failure considered so value <1 is not valid...revised @ 1/100 ....)

[Amelanchier]

<1/100-1/100 ( no partial failure considered so value <1 is not valid...revised @ 1/100 ....)

 

Care to share with the class???

[Arob]

This is very interesting Tony.

(It'd also be interesting to find how people arrive at their decisions.)