Likelihood of Failure Experiment 2

[Amelanchier]

Following on from the last effort - take a look at these images and give your opinions on the likelihood of failure of the limb as a result of the defect.

 

The rules are the same:-

 

In a population of 100 oak trees like this one, how many would suffer total limb failure as a result of this defect within an average 12 months period.

 

As last time - ignore targets. I want to single out the likelihood of failure. Its number of trees out of 100, not percent.

 

In this instance the tree is moderately exposed and in good vigour. And yes, I do realise that technically, the limb has already failed!

 

Cheers

Edited February 13, 2009 by Amelanchier
Wrong photos!

[Dean Lofthouse]

50/50

[old snake]

Now this is a good one mate,i still wouldn't expect many limbs like that to fail though?

[Tom D]

Those fractures can go on a while like that, I reckon still less than 1 in 100 but more than the first one.

[Dean Lofthouse]

I had exactly that senario in my wood on an Oak, it lasted a year

 

Over that year period, the bottom section gradually buckled till eventually it went sideways one windy day and collapsed. It is still there as a hanger

 

I imagined if I were a booky giving odds 2-1 odds on

[stoxs]

pure guess

 

i said the 12 -25 so 1 in 4 or 5 will fail in the next 12 months

[David oakman]

I have got a bough the same as that and it has been there 8 years it allways seem to be in young mature oaks with solid wood it just does not flex this is where the fungi comes in and rots the heart. I will try and get a picture of an oak tree about 4-500 years old totally on the lean holding on by two toes ,it is also hollow. i told my boss it would soon be over and he told me it had been like that since 1947. A good wind or a good crop of acorns could bring it down.

[Heads up]

this is a good'un

 

I'd say there is still a low failure rate but much higher that the last thread.

I'll plum for 12-25.

[Amelanchier]

Well the spread is looking good - though i'd want about 50 votes to be sure.

 

BUMP!

[David oakman]

As promised a picture of the mentioned oak tree.....