Milder>Cooler>Milder

[peckerwoo]

I guess this is a different slant to the numerous TV forecasts but for those interested,,,,

on the previous post I stated I would not post again until a significant change would be in the offing?

Well I guess a few have spotted milder and breezy conditions set to return but not before a period of wet snow spreads N&E through tomorrow,

Dont get me wrong in that its gonna feel actually warmer because it wont be while next tuesday until we will be frost free

and the next few nights will still see severe frosts in sheltered northern UK places.

Temps are going to begin recovering on average tomorrow, especially nearer to the SouthWest you are but Sunday and Monday will

be temporarily cooler as the current polar low (which is too weak along with the Greenland High) affects us introducing the cold again

before it quickly fills and swings NE to follow the main changing low coming with its embedded mild wet air from the Atlantic now.

(Currently approaching from Fitzroy and sole area SW of scilly isles)

These will both fill over western scandinavia over the weekend (when we have the cool blip) and although the aforementioned High

will continue over Greenland the Azores High (AH) ridges into western europe stopping any encroachment westwards

from the cold continent hence forcing anything in the atlantic to make a bee-line for the UK, The Jet stream incidentally is really

kicking in directly over us also from midweek onwards.

So it wont be a sudden change but slightly drawn out with temps hovering into double figures for the south for tomorrow

(and drop 1°C for roughly every degree of latitude as you go North as a rough guide if you will?) but after Monday temps will rise quickly for us all

and despite patterns of returned cold standing by in some circuits I think this milder mobile zonal pattern will be around for 7-10 days at

least and with it being mid-January before we can look for further significent outcomes then the clock is ticking for Mr Winter!

I rub my chin on that pre-xmas phrase concerning talk of an early spring

but overall the last 6-7 week have been remarkably incredible in terms of cold temps!

PS: below certifies 100% the mild Atlantic weather next week

[robbo 110]

interesting post mate....... you have been right so far!!!!!!!!

whats your thoughts on longer term, i.e. the last 3 winters have been harsher than we are used to!!! cheers!!!

[big fell!]

Good thread and very thought provoking... December was the coldest month in over 100 years! The last 3 winters have been more severe than we in the U.k are used to. Is it the beggining of a trend or just a random pattern of weather? If it is to become the norm we seriously need to update our road, railway and aviation infrastructure. We are due an ice age i reckon...

[Matthew Arnold]

Good thread and very thought provoking... December was the coldest month in over 100 years! The last 3 winters have been more severe than we in the U.k are used to. Is it the beggining of a trend or just a random pattern of weather? If it is to become the norm we seriously need to update our road, railway and aviation infrastructure. We are due an ice age i reckon...[/QUOTE]

 

I bet the govenrment will put this down to an Extreme Weather Event caused by us releasing CO2 into the atmosphere. If we stopped using every fossil fuelled machine and power station in the world. It would not make a blind bit of difference. The volcanos in the world erupting or not produce more CO2 per year than any city or country in the world.

[big fell!]

Good thread and very thought provoking... December was the coldest month in over 100 years! The last 3 winters have been more severe than we in the U.k are used to. Is it the beggining of a trend or just a random pattern of weather? If it is to become the norm we seriously need to update our road, railway and aviation infrastructure. We are due an ice age i reckon...[/QUOTE]

 

I bet the govenrment will put this down to an Extreme Weather Event caused by us releasing CO2 into the atmosphere. If we stopped using every fossil fuelled machine and power station in the world. It would not make a blind bit of difference. The volcanos in the world erupting or not produce more CO2 per year than any city or country in the world.

 

 

With you to a certain extent there. The poles have expanded and retreated several times in the last 100k years without our help due to ( like you said ) increased volcanic or geothermal activity producing more green house gases. But I dont think that our contribution of Co2 and other warming gases such as methane, sulphur etc will help the situation... I think the next 10-20 years will show us if we are on the brink of a major climate change. Exciting stuff!

[John Russell]

RangerMatt writes: I bet the govenrment will put this down to an Extreme Weather Event caused by us releasing CO2 into the atmosphere. If we stopped using every fossil fuelled machine and power station in the world. It would not make a blind bit of difference. The volcanos in the world erupting or not produce more CO2 per year than any city or country in the world.

 

Let's stick to weather and stay off the subject of climate, Matt.

 

Suffice it to say that climate is extremely complex. What has been happening over the last few weeks is a redistribution of patterns of heat in the Northern Hemisphere. While we in Western Europe have been suffering from unprecedented cold spells, places like Nuuk, capital of Greenland, saw unprecedented warm weather with temperatures as high as +15C!

 

If you want to discuss the science of man-made versus background CO2, then start another thread and I'll happily explain why what you've written is incorrect.

 

Best wishes,

 

John Russell

Edited January 6, 2011 by John Russell
I decided my first post was OTT.