Presentation on quantified risk assessments and management recommendations and when not to prune (most of the time)

[jfc]

Thanks for the reply. That would make sense (I think). It would be difficult to pull anything useful out of the presentation without knowing exactly how it is calculated beyond vague assumptions. Most studies would generally describe in detail the process so that results can be verified by others as repeatable. I wonder do they intend to publish this as a study at some point?

Hi, the software they use is treecalc. Most of the research has come from Germany apparently. You can pay to use treecalc but I've not found time to have a play with it as yet.

Jan.

[scottythepinetree]

18 hours ago, jfc said:

Hi, the software they use is treecalc. Most of the research has come from Germany apparently. You can pay to use treecalc but I've not found time to have a play with it as yet.

Jan.

I had a look at Tree Calc, which looks like an impressive piece of software. But my point is that it would be difficult to make an assessment on the validity of their method without knowing how they determine that safety factor. Is it some arbitrary variable they decided on, or does it correspond to the conditions a tree would be expected to be subjected to.

 

It's most likely sound. It looks like a lot of time/thought went into it. But I wouldn't be comfortable basing a decision on (what could be) a random number generator.

[jfc]

The guy that works with me is German, he was at Camperdown too so he might fancy looking into the validity of the software etc, and see if there are english translations. Have you tried to contact Paul,  who did the presentation?

 

cheers,

 

jan.

 

[daltontrees]

A guy called Peter Sterken produced a spreadsheet calculator a few years ago that I think probably does the same as treecalc, it almost certainly relies on the same formulae. I'll dig it out when I get to the office.

[scottythepinetree]

I haven't looked into this much at all. I am interested in how it's calculated. It's just something that stands out as the only part of it that I don't understand. I'd love to see them publish an actual paper on this. It's an area where any research that gives you more confidence in the decision making process can only be a good thing.

[daltontrees]

17 hours ago, scottythepinetree said:

I haven't looked into this much at all. I am interested in how it's calculated. It's just something that stands out as the only part of it that I don't understand. I'd love to see them publish an actual paper on this. It's an area where any research that gives you more confidence in the decision making process can only be a good thing.

I looked at the Sterken calculator, all the calculations are hidden, you just put numbers in and an answer comes out. He has published papers about it but I've not seen them. They'd probably turn up with a search. I can send you a copy of the calculator, he told me it was free to use.