huricane

[hedgesparrow]

been going around re hurricane coming sundaY NIGHT Monday i pasted this from weather school. bit less than a hurricane but strongThe latest model guidance for Monday suggests that a vigorous area of low pressure is going to be bringing a region of severe gales to the southern parts of the UK.

 

Now, things are certainly not set in stone, and they are likely to change, but with agreement from the Canadian GEM (below), US GFS and the ECMWF that some sort of small scale, vigorous depression will be located somewhere between Brest and Manchester confidence at this stage is reasonable.

 

So what would this mean? Well, a spell of heavy rain (15 to 20mm generally) but most notably strong winds. If the systems is in the northern part of the area above then southern England, southern Wales and the Midlands would see gusts of over 70mph, and possibly 80mph on coasts. This would be strong enough to damage loose roof tiles, fencing and the bring some weakened branches off trees. It may well be strong enough to fell some trees too, especially given how wet the ground is at present.

 

If the low is further south then the strongest of the winds would be across northern France, with severe gales gusting over 60mph across Ireland, northern England and southern Scotland.

 

It is worth bearing in mind that the midday runs of the models on Tuesday were not in favour of this storm system, but it has re-emerged this morning. So still some uncertainty.

 

We will keep you updated, and you can also follow the latest on twitter @weatherschool or do a search on Facebook for Weather School

[APC]

Surf Reports, Surf Forecasts and Surfing Photos - Magicseaweed.com

 

MagicSeaweed is a surfing site, but has really good pressure charts. Looks like Monday morning will make a mess of the south-coast although if you get sick of dealing with windblown and storm-damaged, 9am the winds will turn offshore so bang on for surfing before getting back to messed up trees afterwards.

[Rich2484]

yep. i have had a warning from the lifeboat to be at a standby for monday from early morn to late.

 

so i cant travel too far, might just go sit down there and listen to the radio traffic, see what happens.