Peckerwoos weather outlook

[peckerwoo]

Following on from the last thread I figure some of us would take renewed interest in whats turning out to be an eventful Autumn and Winter so here goes with another punt at what may be on offer weather wise for the remainder of the year with a breif notion on what January and February may bring?

The current milder period may be welcome in some parts that endured record falls and low temps so as we have seen todays recovery to 4° & 5°C values spread across the UK then the current High pressure re-alignment west of N.Ire & Eire will retain the milder airflow until the weekend when warm air advection from 2 systems in the Atlantic and a low headed south down Norway forces the High pressure anti-cyclone to Bulge centred around the Shetland isles region and develop a tell tale Heart shape which although allowing severe frosts should give liitle precipitation.

Its beginning to look like wednesday (15th) when once again the high will retrogress NW back to Greenland (measureable height rise ensembles for Reyjavik support this Here) and a Polar low around the Barents sea will force a bitter pure Northerly blast down giving us low temps that we have recently seen and although no frontal snow or troughs can be mapped this soon the strength of the wind should allow for potentially heavy outbreaks in Northern Scotland and right down the entire North sea coastal regions, this of course hinges on a shortwave spin off near southern Norway forming through Wednesday.

So all in all another very cold spell again next week albeit from more of a northerly source so less in the way of snowfall apart from the places mentioned.

The last thread detailed many aspects of what could be causing the current conditions and one I did not mention was the Polar vortex that in recent times forces High pressure to never settle over Greenland and leaves us to the accustomed mild and windy Atlantic via the gulf stream low pressure systems that develop east of newfoundland under the pseudonym of "Cyclogenesis" - is it a pre-cursor of Solar minima that has halted this once again in a similar vain to January this year > > > Intriguing BBC news article?

In the mid-term I would refrain from placing a white xmas flutter as although snow may be lying on the ground I would say conditions for latter December are looking to have waned back to a more Zonal pattern as a Canadian ridge has been picked up on by some models which could introduce the afformentioned Polar Vortex back over Greenland and pave the way for the Jet to send us the missing Atlantic lows and milder wetter pattern into the new year with a more settled mid January period into February with what I dare say as an early Spring if a slack anti-cyclone settles overwestern europe?

all hypothetical again and long winded but hey,,,,

Edited December 9, 2010 by peckerwoo

[Frank]

Very informative. Thanks.

 

 

 

 

 

What on earth did it mean?? Is it gonna snow in East Yorkshire near the seaside or not??? Will what's already here be able to clear?

[Albedo]

Hi Peckerwoo, I would be very interested in your views on the stuff outlined below as you are the most informed person on this matter that I have ever been able to ask.

 

I appreciate that weather is what happens on a day to day basis and that climate is longer term and have chipped the question out of stone a bit, as you will know this stuff but others may not.

 

It has long been predicted by climate change scientists that we may lose the Gulf Stream due to the effect on major ocean currents of melting ice caps. They have said that if this were to happen, that we could be plunged into Canadian type winters as we are on roughly the same latitude as them.

 

It is for this reason (and other cold related effects around the world) that climate scientists prefer the term ‘Climate Change’ to ‘Global Warming’.

 

It is a popularly held view that these cold winters we have been having make a nonsense of ‘climate change theory’. I would advance the view that these and other extreme events could actually back up and validate ‘climate change theory’ even though there is no evidence that we have as yet lost the Gulf Stream.

 

So my question is…. Would the loss of the Gulf Stream have this effect? And perhaps .. Do you have a view on whether this is likely?

 

I don’t want to derail your thread into a general debate about climate change so whilst I would be very interested to have your view on this, I would respectfully ask other members not to go off on a general climate change denial or acceptance theme. It is for this reason that I am asking this specific question here and NOT starting a climate change thread, as you mention the Gulf Stream in your original post.

 

Best Regards Paul

Edited December 10, 2010 by Albedo
typo

[Quickthorn]

Thanks for this Peckerwoo. As you're from SYorks, I hope you didn't get stuck at Anston last week!

 

I'm not too far from you, in N Notts. We've seen some incredibly low temperatures for here. After several nights - double digits, my (cheap) thermometer read about -17 on Tues morning. I couldn't get the truck started, possibly because diesel had turned to wax. Do you think we'll see temperatures down to this sort of level next week?

[Big J]

Superb - thanks again for taking the time to post the forecast. It's great that Arbtalk has it's own resident weatherman!

[rovers90]

I've always subscribed to the fact that the weather is what it is outside your window! That way when the "experts" get it wrong, you're not disappointed.

 

Remember what Billy Connelly once said,"There's no such thing as bad weather, just inappropiate clothing".

[peckerwoo]

Hi Peckerwoo,,,, etc.

 

First off in regards to the great "GW debate" - I`m dubious that its valid and purely some form of a money-spinning scaremongering conspiracy from many worldwide govt. departments as mother earth can handle whatever a relatively primitive species such as mankind can envoke upon it and therefore "climate change" or "cycle" is much more apt if one goes back through history to examine the facts such as temperate forests in Greenland (alder, spruce, pine and members of the yew family!) having existed within the past million years via proofing from scientific ice core samples.

Iv`e dipped my toe into the vastness that is Oceanography and despite becoming fascinated with evidence of a relatively recent shutdown of the thermohaline current/Atlantic conveyor/ Gulf stream call it what you will, then although questions have been raised suggesting a slowing of the flow in the last few years, a total cessation (although devastating to NW regions of Europe that are only adapted to warm temperatures) is on par with odds of a metorite impact as far as the methodical thinking scientist assumes (dont mention Tunguska please ) BUT having said that history once again provides us with data relating to the current grinding to a total halt on much more than one occasion.

Cycle is a firm word to possibly explain a lot of what has been going off in the last couple of decades albeit in an incredibly accelerated mode but temperature averages fluctuated by as much as 8°C annualy within southern Greenland during the last inter glacial period so lightning turnarounds can and do happen although some prefer to call it Abrupt climate change

Some contributors to the debate favor the current freshwater run-off from glacier melt (salt water salinity) as an indicator for slowing the Global Great Ocean Conveyor Belt which encompasses the gulf stream but what for example an extreme La Nina period with cooling sectors off the western pacific that the GGOCB runs through has more of an effect of slowing the system and ice melt is not the reasoning?

Far to deep a subject for me Paul but I`m happy to offer an opinion anytime but as you pointed out maybe its more suited to keeping things on topic for the time being

 

Do you think we'll see temperatures down to this sort of level next week?

 

The renewed blast on Thursday has similar potential to cause widespread disruption but more about that early next week, the winds however will be stronger this time quickT so areas where those record overnight lows were recorded will see values nearer the -4°C to -6°C but rural areas of mountainous N Wales and the scottish highlands could go past -10° where sheltered valleys lie out of the wind.

Models are in disagreement after 7 days and the initial pointers to an Atlantic breakthrough are now 50/50 again so maybe the record average temp for December might still be broken???

[Andy Collins]

Av high or low temp?

[Mark Bolam]

Peckerwoo, great stuff mate. Totally agree on your take of the Global Warming issue.

 

Now to business.

 

Please define 'White Christmas' the way the bookies see it, and give us your odds. I know you said hang fire, but its Baltic down here in Kent, and my Dad and Mam are still snowed in up near Otterburn.

 

Great input mate.

[Albedo]

Just a thankyou for taking time to do such a considered response peckerwoo.

 

So on the Gulf stream - It would be bad if it happened but in your view unlikely. That answers my question, Thanks mate:001_smile: