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Future Firewood Demand Optimism?


Billhook
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On 09/09/2021 at 10:29, Billhook said:

Not like a farmer to be optimistic but perhaps with the current hike in gas and electricity prices, coupled with the net zero initiative and the move to all electric cars, people may find it hard to pay the increases to keep warm.  Keeping warm is the greatest cost.

I see they had to fire up a coal power plant recently as the wind power had faded. Gas being phased out and the electric demand will no doubt cause power cuts

what d’y’all think?

About ten months since I started this thread and a lot has changed.  This Winter will soon be upon us and with our "Just in Time" society at risk of breaking down in a few days due to supply problems, preparation is everything.. While I am optimistic about the importance of firewood, I have my natural farmer's pessimism about food and water in the near future not forgetting fuel to power agriculture.

Societies break down very quickly with shortages, look at Sri Lanka, Ghana and Holland with many others on the brink.

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Making more from less.  I think he is on the right track but making hard work of it.  I was keen to do something similar with my Urban branch logger which has a bagging attachment to make life easier.  We use the branch logging all the time for kindling and they work on BBQs as well.  I have enough to be going on with so going out and finding a labelling company and marketing is not  my thing but surely an idea for those starting off with a limited supply of firewood and equipment

 

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Those scrounging wood have been busier and there seem to be more doing it, I hope that translates to more demand for bought wood too.  Gas and electricity price rises expected too be very large again when the October rise comes. I worked out people having come off deals and onto the massively increased cap will be seeing a tripling of costs in a12 month period.  Heating oil I don't know exactly but assume is well up too.

 

If I was supplying wood I think my price would be set considerately higher than last year, double maybe.

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1 hour ago, neiln said:

Gas and electricity price rises expected too be very large again when the October rise comes

...and again in Jan 23 it seems. 44p/kWh predicted for electricity and 14p for gas. It will have a minimal effect on me as my electricity bill will still be around £200+ standing charges and gas is only used for hot water but at these prices solar PV  and a battery is a no brainer if you have an unshaded southish facing roof.

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It's certainly getting pretty scary, especially when you look abroad to see where things are heading energy shortage wise.

 

Personally I think most of the developed world has no option but to backtrack on all the green whitewashing shenanigans and start going back to nuclear and maybe start thinking about using those wind turbines when it's too windy and excess solar for possibly heat storage or at the very least hydrogen production.

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1 hour ago, openspaceman said:

...and again in Jan 23 it seems. 44p/kWh predicted for electricity and 14p for gas. It will have a minimal effect on me as my electricity bill will still be around £200+ standing charges and gas is only used for hot water but at these prices solar PV  and a battery is a no brainer if you have an unshaded southish facing roof.

 

Unfortunately, prices for solar panels and batteries have gone up a lot since pre pandemic, and all the decent installers are booked up for months. Still tempting though.

Hope I've got enough wood for this winter anyway.

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I already have enough wood cut/split/stacked for the next 3 years for my own use , If worldwide energy prices keep rising then surely they will reach an unaffordable point  for most of the world and surely the West (EU and US ) will be the only ones able to buy and the price will surely plateau at what they can / will pay ....which could leave poorer countries in deep trouble !!...

 

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3 hours ago, sandspider said:

 

Unfortunately, prices for solar panels and batteries have gone up a lot since pre pandemic, and all the decent installers are booked up for months. Still tempting though.

Hope I've got enough wood for this winter anyway.

You are right but we're still getting reasonable quotes for a system for my daughter, for installation after October.

 

Prices of many things are rising mainly because UK's performance has been bad in the last two years and the pound has fallen against the dollar a lot. With inflation biting it's probably better to spend the money now before inflation really bites.

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1 hour ago, sandspider said:

I'd be interested to know what sort of quotes she's getting and for what size of system, if you wouldn't mind? My understanding is that what was a 10k system before the pandemic is now 15k, or even more. (That's for panels and batteries)

Well I have to say that although we have a quote for £13500 for a 5kW array and 10kWh battery as the survey has still to take place there could still be a price hike.

 

2 years ago I reckoned a 4kW system and 6kWh battery could be had for £8k so yes much more than back then but with a likely 84% grid independence and an annual usage of 5000kWh there is still a saving of £1260 at 30p/kWh and that rises to £1848 at 40p/kWh.

 

In her case it is likely even better as she has an EV to soak up excess solar power.

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