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treeline tom

Are we in a bubble?

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Been busy this year? Like, really busy?

 

Lots of people sat at home in their garden, not going on holiday, looking at that tree they have always wanted sorted with some spare furlough money in their pockets.

 

The question is, is this a bubble, and what happens when it busts? RemoteMediaFile_6553856_0_2021_03_17_10_36_36.jpg

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I think from a tree surgery perspective, yes.

 

A lot of people have excess cash at the moment on account of having been furloughed and having had their social extravagances curtailed. This, combined with the pressing desire to get socialising again, means that getting gardens tidied ahead of the rule of 6 outside coming back is a priority. Correspondingly, sales of garden furniture and such like have been huge.

 

The pin that'll burst the bubble is that the economic reality of covid has yet to hit. Furlough is delaying hundreds of thousands (if not more) of redundancies, we're looking at a complete restructuring of how the country buys it's goods, with highstreets suffering an unprecedented shock. The legacy cost of the covid support measures is astronomical, and as soon as that reality hits home, non-essential spending (such as tree surgery) will be reduced.

 

Just my 2 cents.

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My thoughts are that yes we’re in a bubble and when the economy gives up when furlough ends we’re going to see a lot of one man bands as a result of unemployment and a bit of a bum rush on domestic work, driving prices down as competition goes up.

How does one prepare for the burst? Do we avoid unnecessary growth and investment for now? Or make hay while the sun shines and ride the storm when it hits?

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I think people will be more sensible with money after all has settled down as its been an eye opener to some were the next pound is coming from. 

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Pretty much the whole world was in a bubble even before Covid. It's going to burst at some point. Put your money in stuff that people really need, not the nice to haves. 

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39 minutes ago, Retired Climber said:

Pretty much the whole world was in a bubble even before Covid. It's going to burst at some point. Put your money in stuff that people really need, not the nice to haves. 

100% this. We've seen recently how machinery prices have shot up. Machinery is better than money in the bank right now. Even if prices return to pre covid 'normal' (unlikely, given the increases in new kit), you can still make more profit (even excluding labour) in a day with a 10k machine than you can in a year's interest with that 10k in the bank.

 

Regarding BBLs- you have the option to pay over ten years (apparently you can apply for that once repayment's start). With inflation the way it is, in year ten my £550 ish payment will be a couple of hours work! It will cost me just 2.5k extra to extend an unsecured 50k loan over another four years, which inflation will more than cover. Mad.

 

Personally, I am diverse with my jobs and the machinery to cover them. If you only do tree surgery, you may end up hurting when work slows and competition hots up. If you can switch to something else, then you have a better chance of weathering the storm.

Edited by doobin
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In my view domestic work is not in a bubble .. if anything it’s dying ... home owners are having a go themselves or have already got the work done in the first lock downs and lots of new have a go gardeners are getting in on it .
You will always find there is a last minute rush this time of year to get things done before nesting , another rush after the Easter holiday... but I don’t think covid has made it go boom! I can see a famine in the usual sort of domestic work tbh.
The general public has no clue about ash die back either so this will be fun and games with the only available work that will be a necessity IMO.. I can see plenty of accidents on the horizon making regulations in this work more of a nightmare as home owners and inexperienced part timers try and tackle these trees ... pessimistic??? We will see.

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Quote

After the lockdown, the exodus. Estate agents are reporting a surge in the numbers of would-be homebuyers plotting a move out of the city to a rural area or smaller town as people conclude that home working is here to stay.

Firms said that during the last few weeks they had seen a big increase in enquiries about well-connected countryside and “out of city” locations – ranging from English market towns to Scottish fishing villages – where people could split their working week between home and office once life starts to return to normal.

 

WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

Estate agents report rise in buyer registrations around Winchester and Berkshire

 

 

Will  theese  people have  money to spend sprucing up there  new rural retreats?

 

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