Supply shortages and product lead times

[Rob D]

30 minutes ago, Squaredy said:

Just bought this set off Rob, and very pleased I am too.  Thumbs up from me.  I was going to buy ready-made chains for my wide slabber, but Rob very helpfully pointed out I would save a fortune simply buying 100ft of chain and making up ourselves.

 

He was so right, and it is not difficult.

 

Thanks Rob.

 

It's rare I'm both helpful and right in the same day so appreciated 😀

[Rob D]

If you have spare cash/grant money then I would advise to invest in your business and yourself and get prepped. Have spares to hand - don't rely on the courier and next day delivery.

 

Spare drive rims/sprocket for each saw/chains and if you can bars.

 

I am now spending an hour to 2 hours a day replying to 'when will it be here' questions - and sadly I can't give an answer [or if I do it's often 'approximate' answer which then changes.

 

We are investing more into stock - but when the time of order to time of delivery is now up to 8 months there is no way lines will last until the next order.

[Rob D]

Just banging the same drum and playing the same record again - got this from Cannon the other day.

 

Commodity prices are rocketing - it could be simply a temporary thing - or it could be the start of major inflation that will get worse not better. Either way prices will be rising soon and this will include our product ranges.

 

So large price increase and increased production times. Don't get caught out and this is one of the more prudent times to ensure you keep a good stock of spares to hand.

 

If you think this is a way for us and others to increase our business and sales - I guess you can think that and that is your choice and judgement to make. Yes it could all blow over - but we are getting e-mails like below from across our suppliers.

 

eg. Cannon have just told us prices are going up between 8% and 16% - lead times from 120 days to 180 days..

 

Please try to plan ahead - Without going into the economics of everything I can see this situation extending for the next couple of years.

 

 

[skyhuck]

Is this not what causes the shortages?

 

Just like the bog roll mess last year?

 

If people buy more, incase there is a shortage, bingo you have a shortage.

 

 

[Tippin Alaybye]

Just about everything is out of stock from tarps to camera lenses ( ok they were the last two things I shopped for yesterday)

[Rob D]

14 hours ago, skyhuck said:

Is this not what causes the shortages?

 

Just like the bog roll mess last year?

 

If people buy more, incase there is a shortage, bingo you have a shortage.

 

 

 

Possibly in some cases - but not in the stuff we sell. This is not a generated shortage - it's already happening.

 

It will get worse as the year rolls on, and as a prediction you'll see price rises as much or more than at any time in recent history [some of our freight charges are 200%-300% more than at the same time last year...]. I've not seen anything like this before in all the times we have been importing.

 

Cardboard for packing materials has a silly waiting list and we've been told to forget ordering any boxes on the lead up to Christmas.

 

So whether people buy 1 bar or 10 bars - we will run out of some part numbers a long time before the next shipment comes in.

 

 

 

[Rob D]

As a lead on from this supply issues now seem pretty bad - what compounds this is no clear details from manufacturers about when they can supply. I'd say this was down to 1) they don't know 2) they can then hedge their bets 3) they don't want to embarrass themselves

 

It seems hard to get honest info.

 

Sugihara - we put an order in April 2021 - still not being told when it will be produced [if ever?]

Tsumura - April 2024 next order [no not a typo it's 2024].

Cannon - got a big order coming August this year 2022. Their lead time now up to 14-16 months

GB - more in Dec 2022

 

Panther Mini - new order from new manufacturer late April/early May

 

Oregon - can't get much info from them

Stihl - we're not direct dealers but some stuff seems to be 3-4 months

 

I can only see supply issues getting worse this year. Am still not really sure what is causing it - likely a few factors and variables going on.