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Simmo
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I think the cycle of competence comes in to play here as well, perhaps easiest explained with driving a car.

 

To begin with, one knows nothing. A child has no concept of what skills are needed to be driving a car.

You're unconsciously incompetent.

Then, perhaps after having a go, you realise that driving that car takes skills you don't have.

You've become consciously incompetent.

You then learn to drive, pay attention to all details, practice and master the skill of driving.

You're now consciously competent.

Then, over time, bad habits sneak in without you noticing, perhaps your eyes get worse, attention drops, but the skill is so ingrained you don't notice.

Until you notice, maybe a passenger points out you're driving like a knob, maybe you have an accident, a near miss or whatever you are back to

Unconsciously incompetent.

 

This is where the danger is, complacency, perhaps not taking feedback, perhaps not getting that feedback. However it happens, slipping from consciously competent back to unconsciously incompetent happens to all of us in one way or another.

Awareness, refresher training, encouraging and accepting feedback are key to combating the cycle and in our case, coming home safe time and time again.

 

Sent from my E5823 using Arbtalk mobile app

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I think the cycle of competence comes in to play here as well, perhaps easiest explained with driving a car.

 

To begin with, one knows nothing. A child has no concept of what skills are needed to be driving a car.

You're unconsciously incompetent.

Then, perhaps after having a go, you realise that driving that car takes skills you don't have.

You've become consciously incompetent.

You then learn to drive, pay attention to all details, practice and master the skill of driving.

You're now consciously competent.

Then, over time, bad habits sneak in without you noticing, perhaps your eyes get worse, attention drops, but the skill is so ingrained you don't notice.

Until you notice, maybe a passenger points out you're driving like a knob, maybe you have an accident, a near miss or whatever you are back to

Unconsciously incompetent.

 

This is where the danger is, complacency, perhaps not taking feedback, perhaps not getting that feedback. However it happens, slipping from consciously competent back to unconsciously incompetent happens to all of us in one way or another.

Awareness, refresher training, encouraging and accepting feedback are key to combating the cycle and in our case, coming home safe time and time again.

 

Sent from my E5823 using Arbtalk mobile app

 

 

It's interesting you used the car analogy, I agree to a certain extent.

However, as I eluded to in an earlier post, the onus is not just on you, it's the vehicle you traveling in, other drivers, weather, road structure etc, in our case, living organisms reacting to natural and unnatural forces, which we cannot guarantee will not be a factor day to day. The institute for road insurance statistics states that the longer you drive (day to day) the higher the chance of an accident, which seems logical as this is where the monkey and the typewriter theorem comes from.

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Yes and no...

Your chances of an accident could be expressed in %/miles. So for every mile you drive, the percentage is the same, but the more miles you drive the more often you take that 0.01% (or whatever) risk so more chances of that accident occurring.

 

About 50% of accidents however, occur within a couple of miles of either setting off or arriving.

It's when your driving on autopilot, not applying yourself fully without fully realising.

You're unconsciously incompetent.

 

Sent from my E5823 using Arbtalk mobile app

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Car insurance companies use the law I stated as do the FAA.

 

If that was the case using a car analogy wouldn't they charge more as your accident free driving increased as you would be inevitably increasing the risk every time you go out in the car. I give up trying to understand your logic and leave you to your empirical statistics etc. :thumbup:

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