Arbtalk.co.uk | Discussion Forum for Arborists

Due to (un)popular demand here is a rolling thread for the weather for the interests of all from those of us working outside & the erstwhile constant gardener to the astro physicist`s and oceanographist`s who happen by here?
Must start of by saying the weathers had its knickers in a bit of a twist for around 3 weeks now where many symptoms of bringing a bitter cold blast have come to the fore but never quite opened the door and we have been on the fringes with a current pattern of normal or slightly below temps with Atlantic weather that was always going to show its hand prior to early December just that its rarely quietened down or moved that far West of us to leave way for any cold air mass be it polar or continental air?
Current talk is of a Continental pattern arriving over us immenently thanks to a strong High pressure ridge over eastern Siberia/NW Russia giving cold daytime temps around 1-3°C for eastern UK regions but slightly less cooler over N Ire and western Sco.
I was not to keen on this pattern earlier today but now the majority of the models are projecting a bitter blast indeed as low systems in the Med will prevent the Scan/Russian high from dropping and along with a slowing Jet and warm air advection moving more and more west away from the UK then I`m as confident now, as the many media reports detail.
It was always a matter of where and when the recent stratospheric warming would show its hand in cooling the troposphere and the displacing/disrupting the polar vortex but eastern Siberia has begun a less cooler period as has eastern US so its valid to see how it could be “our turn”?
Unsuitable to predict snowfall this far out as we have to endure a diminishing warm front progressing slowly eastwards giving wet snow over western fringes courtesy of a system running north up through Iceland Mon & Tue but this will revert back westwards late tues as most of the UK will come under the Continental air and troughs during weds/thurs which should all be of snow?
I wouldn`t rule out an “Ice day” neither in certain areas as the -10°C Isotherm is heading westwards into E Anglia first thing Thursday.

Interesting times,,,, at long last for log sales at least
Comments welcomed:

Always enjoy your very intelligent weather posts. A welcome change from the Met Office scheisters.

Our nearest garage has been advertising "Snow tyres now in stock" since about October. Local DIY shop invested big in sledges too, hoping for a repeat of last year's foot of snow.

Feels like we haven't had a proper winter yet. Bring it on!

I have not read any of the above yet but I have been meaning to post that I see you as a God of Weather. Earlier in the year or late last year I was telling everyone that winter would start on the thirteenth of January cos a man on the internet who knows what he is talking about said so. AND IT DID

I noticed this too. Yakutsk was -53C in mid January, which is cold even for them, but then last week it was up to -15C. Not saying i knew the significance, but I did wonder if it meant we might get a cold snap, so thanks for posting it.

etc.
Hard for us here to conceive living in perpetual darkness for weeks on end with temps so cold that young, old and the ill have to remain indoors else their lungs freeze instantaneously?
I always observe the temps drop in Siberia toward the end of August and think of what a hell it must have been for the invaders past from Napoleon to the German army groups that vanquished in the unimaginable cold.
Many a story has been told from German Condor transport planes pitching too high with all the Stalingrad "kessel" evacuees untethered sliding to the rear of the plane bringing it crashing down vertically within a minute of takeoff to what is considered the less fortunate that were thrown out of their makeshift hospital windows partially naked in -50°C temps?
But lets not detract so back to identifying any possible downgrades to the upcoming cold period as today`s model charts are quite something!
The main stayer for me disregarding the impending change was that although the Jetstream was slackening, a lot of energy remained in the northern arm, leaving the door open for a return to Zonal westerly feed and a sinking Russian high into the Med but from around next weekend the southern arm influences and it barrels eastwards well to our South through the Med linking in with the Scan/W Russian High and allowing for the possibility of the "Omega Block" where any mild air is completely shut off by 2 huge High pressure twins, as per the Omega "Ω" symbol, one over W Russia and the other situated near or over Greenland thus the Cold period extends well beyond any spell that we are used to such as a couple of days or so to over a week?
I would advise on measuring air pressure for Reykjavik later next week for a marker on the longevity of the cold here in the UK and definitely our last best shot at Winter for this season.

Some interesting thoughts. Need some snow now. Here is the website we use and it's the Norwegian place.

Weather forecast for Ystesund, Fyresdal (Telemark) ? yr.no

Seem to recall that one TL in finding some good webcams.
try the Wunderground site and scroll in and out to anywhere then tick the model data , choose the model & types then run the loops, the 850mb uppers are the better and simpler measure.

Hi

Always interesting to see what the weathers doing, were forecast for some snow on Monday!

Meteociel - Prévisions météo

N

Detailed hourly forecast for Vendée, Loire (France) ? yr.no

Good to see you posting on the forums again Peckerwoo - for a minute there we were all forced to look at Metcheck!

I for one am really looking forward to a bit of cold. I don't sell logs and snow makes the sawmilling tricky, but I look a good frost. Without it, it's just not winter. And winter is rapidly becoming my favourite season!